Dallas : How can you track wins/losses of a strategy

[NotBothered]

+ also do not think that overall I do not have losing days or strategy goes stagnant - sure that happens but why I have different ways to attack things

so I update settings and try to minimize it - and when I say this does that or something else -- these are averages right - everything has a minimum and maximum but I just say average.

[ShaunWhite]

It is an interesting argument that one loss does not mean another is coming

It's not an argument it's just a statement of fact. To think the next market depends on the previous one is falling foul of the Gambler's Falacy.

If you've got 152 stategies that make money then you probably don't need my input. But all I'll say is that staking methods as a way to improve returns are a subject that's been explored to death and generally found to be ineffective, choosing to omit certain races is just a staking plan that has a floor of zero.

You mention backtesting, are you splitting your data into a research set and a test set? It's not too hard to find strategies in a set of data, what's hard is having that same result in unseen data. The fact you have 152 (!) strategies seems to point to backfitting. And those that produce 1 or 2 bets a week wouldn't be possible to prove with a backtests anyway because the sample is too small to be statistically relevant.

I'd suggest you stick to liability staking, it's tried and tested and rather than using your time to try and defy the maths, you'd be better spending that time refining your parameters, ideally to increase the number traded rather than filtering.

Nice try though NB, but I try to remember that hundreds of thousands of people have dedicated their lives to maths and gambling for the last 300 yrs, There's nothing much new to be found and if I'm doing something nobody else is, then I'm wrong.

[NotBothered]

thanks for the reply

yeah Shaun - maybe best you leave this thread and just let Dallas help me slightly.

I do not know you at all and I maybe reading it wrong - but seems your taking a shot at me -- honestly I just do not need that sort of attitude - I bet for a living so if I say something - you can write it down as fact

cheers.

[NotBothered]

I came here asking for help - using one variable

you asked me some questions I tried to be friendly and answer them - as directly as possible + so yeah maybe just leave the thread for what it is about -- asking for some help

thanks for the understanding.

[ShaunWhite]

thanks for the reply

yeah Shaun - maybe best you leave this thread and just let Dallas help me slightly.

I do not know you at all and I maybe reading it wrong - but seems your taking a shot at me -- honestly I just do not need that sort of attitude - I bet for a living so if I say something - you can write it down as fact

cheers.

I'm not having a pop at you at all. I bet for a living too, Betfair member since 2000 and 6yrs-ish full time. Fully automated staking iro 40k a day and before that 20yrs in the City designing systems for quants. I personally like when my assumptions are challenged, but if you don't then I'll leave you to it.

[NotBothered]

yeah that is the internet for you I suppose people from all over ... the one thing you gotta always remember - no matter how much you think you know and how much you bet there is always someone bigger

my background is much more extensive than that .. on a scale that you probably have never seen .. but what does it matter - the internet gives everyone the same right to post at the same level... so it is a pointless discussion.

Like I said - please just go find some other thread to write in -- I appreciate you stopping in ... but yeah best we stop our back and forth here.

Dallas any help would be appreciated.

[Dallas]

in that code it has market_profit total_profit

I just need to access the profit from last race - if its negative no bet - if its positive then allow the bet


dallas.PNG

On the Stored value tab of the third rule you'll first need to add the following new SV
Store a value name 'Market_Profit_Recent' (or whatever name you want to use)
For Bet Angel
With another Stored Value
named 'Market_Profit'
For Selection

Then add on your back bet rule/s add a 'Stored Value' condition to test
Stored Value named 'Market_Profit_Recent' (or whatever you called it)
For Bet Angel
is greater than
An Entered Amount 0

and that will do it


It was confusing because your initial message asked for it not to trigger when a loss, but then start triggering again once there is a profit - which of course can't happen

[NotBothered]

thanks Dallas your right I made it more confusing than I should have

I have made those changes and will be interested to see how it goes vs the first version

Again thank you for your time - a great help ... have a nice day and good luck

[NotBothered]

OK that worked - but the issue I ran into was it only really worked on consecutive markets

So what I did to make it do what I wanted was to take your back the 3 win fav automation and modify it to record fav 1 2 and 3 and then use strategy to decide when to bet and when not too

took a little bit of tinkering but I have it working and running this morning

built three versions and just testing which is the premium product so to speak

thanks again Dallas -- have a great day.

[Roobetter]

thanks for the reply

yeah Shaun - maybe best you leave this thread and just let Dallas help me slightly.

I do not know you at all and I maybe reading it wrong - but seems your taking a shot at me -- honestly I just do not need that sort of attitude - I bet for a living so if I say something - you can write it down as fact

cheers.

Totally uncalled for this and to be honest arrogant. From what i can see Shaun gives his time and knowledge to a lot of people on this forum.

[NotBothered]

the thread is about a certain thing - lets not get off track - its that simple

this whole thing about experience or whatever - this is the internet no-one ever truly knows who they are speaking too - but trying to say your work experience is so totally overwhelming when it is extremely low grade compared to mine - well enough is enough... I do not go into your threads and speak to you like that - so I expect the same courtesy in mine.... + I only have 1 thread on this forum - so if your not interested in this topic - it is so easy to just sail on and not even bother.

I am still perfecting this -- but after the changes Dallas suggested - then customizing the other one instead - it got to $42.73 on very low stakes today

Never been a fan of Dutching - but including all versions and horse racing dutching based on the same thing - its +$318 on the day

I do feel given a couple more weeks to perfect it - Dutching can be +1000-1500 a day sort of thing

To be clear though - the automation part is just the recording and set up -- the strategy takes over from there using that information and the filters to make the bets.

So it is only one days live results with this new version but so far so good.

[NotBothered]

that race it backed the 2/3/6

6/2/4 was the result

If I have time I might try to program a UK Horse Racing one as well -- try that out later tonight.

[NotBothered]

besides - as long as I am interested in this - this thread will become one of the most valuable on the forum

I do not see too many threads about building $300 a day per strategy results

before I start posting some automation help and ideas I just need to make sure its watertight

that race it backed 2 3 and 8 and it came 2/8 and something else.

[Anbell]

besides - as long as I am interested in this - this thread will become one of the most valuable on the forum

I do not see too many threads about building $300 a day per strategy results

before I start posting some automation help and ideas I just need to make sure its watertight

that race it backed 2 3 and 8 and it came 2/8 and something else.

lol

[Anbell]

besides - as long as I am interested in this - this thread will become one of the most valuable on the forum

I do not see too many threads about building $300 a day per strategy results

before I start posting some automation help and ideas I just need to make sure its watertight

that race it backed 2 3 and 8 and it came 2/8 and something else.

lmao