Hedge up on photos?

[Emtaxx]

Hi guys another one I'd like to clean off is how can I green up at the Photos i.e. at the end of the race when a winner is unable to be confirmed easily and requires videos/photo footage.

if I put green all on a rule file at the end of my script and then condition it to only trigger when the market is suspended will this work? or is there another part to it?

thx

[ShaunWhite]

You can't place bets on a suspended market.

Markets usually (if not always?) remain open until the result is declared.

[tommyc333]

If you mean that you want to hedge up during the period when the photo is being checked for a photo finish, then you could use a ‘Unsuspended time’ condition.

The market briefly suspends and then unsuspends, leaving only the horses involved in the photo active.

There’s no other occasion when the race is unplay that the market temporarily suspends (as far as I know!) so this means your green up will only trigger during the photo checking period.

[tommyc333]

Actually, that would trigger immediately after in-play and then green up!

So you'd probably need to set a signal when the market suspends and include this in your Green Up condition after the market has unsuspended.

[jamesedwards]

I mark horse race photos using the following:
>Rule trigger time set to 'in-play time' 40 secs to 59 mins
With condition that:
> time since unsuspended <30 secs

Beware that the prices can shift violently when market first opens for a photo. Might leave you greening at unfavourable odds or leaving your green unmatched. I wouldn't do it myself.

[tommyc333]

Yes, that's the simplest way!

The market usually calls the photo correctly, so I guess you'd only do it in an attempt to minimise losses.

[ShaunWhite]

It might minimise a market loss but will almost certainly have a negative impact on your overall pl. And as market totals mean nothing and your bottom line means everything then the choices are obvious.

[Emtaxx]

Thanks guys. you're all so helpful :') :')

[Dallas]

If it helps there's an example here which triggers an alert to display in Guardian if there is a photo finish
viewtopic.php?t=23601

The .baf could be adapted to trigger a green up bet instead

[SpikeyBob]

If there is profit to be taken ... take it! move on. Do it manually, you can't rely on automation for everything.

[ShaunWhite]

If there is profit to be taken ... take it! move on. Do it manually, you can't rely on automation for everything.

If you're automating you're not sat there to see it or do it manually. The joy of automation is not being tied to your desk and being able to work when it suits you rather than when the sport is on.

The big question from all this is why? If you haven't tidied up your position before they've crossed the line then there's something wrong with your strategy.

[SpikeyBob]

OK, gotcha, In that case OP could always place keep lays at low odds (fibonachi) before the off with liabilities of say 1% of stake. Eats slightly into profits (8 - 9%), but also helps to reduce losses on runners that perform well enough to hit these lower odds. Using fib with 1% lays, 98% loss if only say 1.55 got matched, 50% loss if 1.05 matches right up to 130+% win if a 1.01 loser gets matched in a photo.

[ShaunWhite]

Eats slightly into profits (8 - 9%), but also helps to reduce losses on runners that perform well enough to hit these lower odds.

You've touched on one of my bugbears Bob so I'll have a little rant.

If you need to spend money to reduce a market loss then all you've actually done is increase the bottom line losses.

It's hard to care about the pl on any given market. Market totals are just a way for Betfair to charge commission, apart from that they're an arbitrary subtotal amongst your 1000s of bets a year. If instead Betfair drew a line every 50 bets to charge commission then people might not be so inclined to do irrational things, like having bets they know aren't decent value or knowingly poor value.

But that view does link back to the auto comments, when trading manually, market totals feel impactful. But with auto you only look at the daily total and then analysis your bets other than in chronological order (maybe by price, side or race duration completed), then you start to see bets not 'markets'.

It's not like the Betfair bet history download even has market totals, just individual bets that all win or lose. Knowingly having a dubious bet is at best just gambling and at worse it's self harm.

[SpikeyBob]

hehe, that's not really a rant, but your feedback is appreciated.

However, reading your last 2 posts does provide some confusion to me bearing in mind that I am a 'trader' and not a 'value bettor', which I believe have different mindsets and I'm ok with that.

[ShaunWhite]

hehe, that's not really a rant, but your feedback is appreciated.

However, reading your last 2 posts does provide some confusion to me bearing in mind that I am a 'trader' and not a 'value bettor', which I believe have different mindsets and I'm ok with that.

Same thing when it comes down it. 'Trading' is just a lot of bets that all run and settle seperately rather than value betting which is usually 1 bet. Not usually a major consideration when you're just looking to buy low and sell high, but value still has to be considered. Eg in a back to lay, you might back at 10 and lay at 5.0 and make your money, but if you lay at 5 when the horse is just about to cross the line then that's a lot of value you've given away.

Market efficiency usually means prices are in the right ballpark, but esp with things like stop losses where people will take any price to get out, it means they don't make enough on the wins they get to balance the inevitable losses.

When you look at your Betfair bet history there's no concept of a 'trade'. Bets aren't grouped by market and none have disappeared just because you had a second bet. And no matter how you sort them the total is the same. 'Trading' creates what's called structural EV (ie the difference between buy and sell prices) but if you could have bought cheaper than you did, and could have sold for more than you did, then you're not making as much as you should.