Hi,
I was trying out a simple laying strategy (if you call it that!).
Turns out based on sample it was better to be on the back side.
When I changed the rules file to back instead of lay the results were not good either.
Aside from sample size being only about a week- could there be reasons why moving from my lay strategy (which was generating consistent loss) to a backing one didn't generate a profitable one?
I just want to understand dynamics i am likely missing to avoid goinh down a rabbit hole
Thoughts ?
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ShaunWhite
- Posts: 10711
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
The 'true' price over large samples (and various caviats) is approx the mid price halfway between the current back and lay prices. So if you flip to the other side and don't change anything else about what you're doing then the same just happens again. You'll lose the same half a tick by crossing the spread.
Otherwise, are you taking prices or offering? (not essential but significant as you can see)
Are your offers old when they're taken and becoming stale (no longer value)?
Adverse selection? Ie you'll sometimes miss getting a back on a winner, but you'll always get a back matched on a loser.... And visa versa.
Generally once you've understood the need to get value then think about why punters lose and bookies don't. It's about there being a horse with a 50% chance, the bookie/trader will try and lay it at 1.9 and the punter is happy to take the 1.9 and back it.
And how do you work out it's got a 50% chance or 75% chance, it seems impossible? You don't need to, smarter people are doing that and it's on the screen... See paragraph 1. And prices either side are close because everyone offering wants to get filled, so they'll undercut each other, asking for smaller and smaller margins until the back and lay prices on offer are damn close to the mid/true/zero value price.
Sadly just flipping a losing stragegy doesn't often work.
Otherwise, are you taking prices or offering? (not essential but significant as you can see)
Are your offers old when they're taken and becoming stale (no longer value)?
Adverse selection? Ie you'll sometimes miss getting a back on a winner, but you'll always get a back matched on a loser.... And visa versa.
Generally once you've understood the need to get value then think about why punters lose and bookies don't. It's about there being a horse with a 50% chance, the bookie/trader will try and lay it at 1.9 and the punter is happy to take the 1.9 and back it.
And how do you work out it's got a 50% chance or 75% chance, it seems impossible? You don't need to, smarter people are doing that and it's on the screen... See paragraph 1. And prices either side are close because everyone offering wants to get filled, so they'll undercut each other, asking for smaller and smaller margins until the back and lay prices on offer are damn close to the mid/true/zero value price.
Sadly just flipping a losing stragegy doesn't often work.