Stick or Twist ? what you think

[beermonsterman]

My automated betting system has took a moosing the past couple of weeks.
it started off great but now its starting to look disastrous
I dont know if I can blame weather or time of the year etc but the sample rate is low so thought I would post my progress to see if you guys think I should carry on or quit
I cannot back test my selections as its an automated backing system I use
I am now loosing faith due to past 10 bets loosing in a row I have not altered my automation just set and forget every day before work
would any one cure my anxiety just by saying I may have something stick to it or would you say try something else I guess I'm just too impatient and I know some of you guys have been here before and know what I'm saying.
I hope you guys dont go in too hard I've been trading/automating for years and just get no where I had really high hopes for this and please forgive my greenness my patience has run very thin and need to have some input of other traders for direction or hope
Thank you for reading

[sionascaig]

10 losses in a row might be ok it really depends on what your expectations are (and your margin / edge)..

Have you any idea how likely that scenario is maybe from back testing?

[Atho55]

Firstly the underlying data is not 100% up to date but should be sufficient to paint a picture. If you select just the odds from your screenshot (mine are floored) there looks to be a downward trend for Rank 1 (have assumed that) when those odds are BSP.

But at the end of day it will be how you select them rather than those odds not being favourable

Odds win data.jpg

[Tuco]

1 decent win can be worth more than 99 small losses - it all depends on what you are doing and how you are doing it.

Maybe that's the key for you: 'win big, lose small'.

Good luck to you Sir!

[Euler]

Probably too early to make a judgement on what is or isn't working. It takes time to get a true reflection on a system and the racing is pretty weak at the moment.

[sionascaig]

I found IR to be a lot more volatile & took out of one of my bots - just too few races to see if it was value. And probably needs a slightly different approach to get value...

Suggest you have also have a look at AUS races. I find it much easier to get value there (against SP)..

[jimibt]

I found IR to be a lot more volatile & took out of one of my bots - just too few races to see if it was value. And probably needs a slightly different approach to get value...

Suggest you have also have a look at AUS races. I find it much easier to get value there (against SP)..

do you place your SP bets via betfair (limit orders) or takesp via BA?? there is a huge difference i've found in both, especially if you are targetting SP based on stats obtained from BSP.

[sionascaig]

Suggest you have also have a look at AUS races. I find it much easier to get value there (against SP)..

do you place your SP bets via betfair (limit orders) or takesp via BA?? there is a huge difference i've found in both, especially if you are targetting SP based on stats obtained from BSP.

Through BA... Although hoping we see the option to take BF limit order appear in BA at some point. Sounds as if there are good few of us interested in it.

[beermonsterman]

Wow thank you guys for your input I was on the fence weather to post this or not but glad I did now
Basically my automation follows money coming into the market on which ever selection steams in by a certain amount of ticks so in a nutshell I'm trying to follow everyone else when backing if that makes sense
I dont have an edge or believe to have one I'm just trying to copy backers and hope for the best basically follow the money seems to be the smartest move for me so far anyway.
I'm going to stick with it for a while see how this pans out .
Thank you for your replies it means a lot trading is a lonely game and getting a response from you guys turns the light on and keeps moral going .

[sionascaig]

Wow thank you guys for your input I was on the fence weather to post this or not but glad I did now
Basically my automation follows money coming into the market on which ever selection steams in by a certain amount of ticks so in a nutshell I'm trying to follow everyone else when backing if that makes sense
I dont have an edge or believe to have one I'm just trying to copy backers and hope for the best basically follow the money seems to be the smartest move for me so far anyway.
I'm going to stick with it for a while see how this pans out .
Thank you for your replies it means a lot trading is a lonely game and getting a response from you guys turns the light on and keeps moral going .

Euler posted a vid a while ago where he did the opposite (layed) - your looking for value remember )

[beermonsterman]

Wow thank you guys for your input I was on the fence weather to post this or not but glad I did now
Basically my automation follows money coming into the market on which ever selection steams in by a certain amount of ticks so in a nutshell I'm trying to follow everyone else when backing if that makes sense
I dont have an edge or believe to have one I'm just trying to copy backers and hope for the best basically follow the money seems to be the smartest move for me so far anyway.
I'm going to stick with it for a while see how this pans out .
Thank you for your replies it means a lot trading is a lonely game and getting a response from you guys turns the light on and keeps moral going .

Euler posted a vid a while ago where he did the opposite (layed) - your looking for value remember )

how do people Know what a horse`s true value would be or how to work that out
can you remember what that video was called thanks

[beermonsterman]

Firstly the underlying data is not 100% up to date but should be sufficient to paint a picture. If you select just the odds from your screenshot (mine are floored) there looks to be a downward trend for Rank 1 (have assumed that) when those odds are BSP.

But at the end of day it will be how you select them rather than those odds not being favourable



Odds win data.jpg

Thank you Atho55 that's quite an interesting data model you got their when you say down ward trend on rank 1 would you explain what that means please.

[sionascaig]

Euler posted a vid a while ago where he did the opposite (layed) - your looking for value remember )

how do people Know what a horse`s true value would be or how to work that out
can you remember what that video was called thanks

I can't remember sorry, it was several years ago. From what I remember it was about looking for value by placing outright bets (as opposed to trades) in the context of the markets being really efficient and asking the question if the price of a runner falls by x number of ticks (10 / 15?) just before the off and there is no obvious reason for it maybe there is value to be had. Think he had 5 lays in a row with an average lay price of around 6 and won all 5..

[Tuco]

how do people Know what a horse`s true value would be or how to work that out

...if it were possible to be that precise in any market, there would be no market!