Stick or Twist ? what you think

[beermonsterman]

Wow thank you guys for your input I was on the fence weather to post this or not but glad I did now
Basically my automation follows money coming into the market on which ever selection steams in by a certain amount of ticks so in a nutshell I'm trying to follow everyone else when backing if that makes sense
I dont have an edge or believe to have one I'm just trying to copy backers and hope for the best basically follow the money seems to be the smartest move for me so far anyway.
I'm going to stick with it for a while see how this pans out .
Thank you for your replies it means a lot trading is a lonely game and getting a response from you guys turns the light on and keeps moral going .

Euler posted a vid a while ago where he did the opposite (layed) - your looking for value remember )

how do people Know what a horse`s true value would be or how to work that out
can you remember what that video was called thanks

[beermonsterman]

Firstly the underlying data is not 100% up to date but should be sufficient to paint a picture. If you select just the odds from your screenshot (mine are floored) there looks to be a downward trend for Rank 1 (have assumed that) when those odds are BSP.

But at the end of day it will be how you select them rather than those odds not being favourable



Odds win data.jpg

Thank you Atho55 that's quite an interesting data model you got their when you say down ward trend on rank 1 would you explain what that means please.

[sionascaig]

Euler posted a vid a while ago where he did the opposite (layed) - your looking for value remember )

how do people Know what a horse`s true value would be or how to work that out
can you remember what that video was called thanks

I can't remember sorry, it was several years ago. From what I remember it was about looking for value by placing outright bets (as opposed to trades) in the context of the markets being really efficient and asking the question if the price of a runner falls by x number of ticks (10 / 15?) just before the off and there is no obvious reason for it maybe there is value to be had. Think he had 5 lays in a row with an average lay price of around 6 and won all 5..

[Tuco]

how do people Know what a horse`s true value would be or how to work that out

...if it were possible to be that precise in any market, there would be no market!