Adjust stake based on previous result

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MattP
Posts: 5
Joined: Mon Feb 08, 2021 9:34 pm

I have a strategy that is working out on paper but I'm not sure if it can be automated in BA.

I have a rule for the core strategy, simple enough to enter into Guardian but need it to include a loss recovery staking plan based on previous results.

For simplicity let's say:

1 loss, next stake x 2
2 loss, next stake x 3
3 loss, revert to base stake until win

Can this be done in BA, without using a spreadsheet? Reason for not using the spreadsheet is high number of markets per day.

I haven't looked to be honest but does BA support other bespoke applications using the API, so my own software could be updating a file or database throughout the day.

Or should I just spend 299 on an API key and keep BA for manual trades.
MattP
Posts: 5
Joined: Mon Feb 08, 2021 9:34 pm

I've done some searching and it looks like this isn't supported, possibly even Gambling Commission guidelines forbidding it.

I'm certainly not looking to do Martingale. Will be doing more random testing and Monte Carlo type simulation so will keep testing if a certain level if loss recovery (2x, 3x, 5x stake then quit) is useful or not.
sniffer66
Posts: 658
Joined: Thu May 02, 2019 8:37 am

MattP wrote:
Wed Mar 03, 2021 1:24 pm
I've done some searching and it looks like this isn't supported, possibly even Gambling Commission guidelines forbidding it.

I'm certainly not looking to do Martingale. Will be doing more random testing and Monte Carlo type simulation so will keep testing if a certain level if loss recovery (2x, 3x, 5x stake then quit) is useful or not.

Obviously I'd advise against recovery staking but the only way I could think to do it would be if you knew the P&L on selection(s) prior to market close. i.e greened up. You could save that to an SV then export to CSV on a timed cycle. Your code could then pick up the value from the exported CSV and you could pass back to another market as an SV using the CSV import setup. Then calc with it in the new market

Alternatively, scrape the previous market P&L from BF and pass the same way

Pretty clunky but the only way I can think to do it
Last edited by sniffer66 on Wed Mar 03, 2021 3:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Derek27
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Archery1969
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Derek27 wrote:
Wed Mar 03, 2021 2:25 pm
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:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
sniffer66
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Joined: Thu May 02, 2019 8:37 am

Derek27 wrote:
Wed Mar 03, 2021 2:25 pm
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Forgive me Father for I have sinned. :D :D
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ShaunWhite
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The maths of gambling has been known for over 250yrs and in that time hundreds of thousands of people have spent lifetimes studying it. If it was this simple than it would be common knowledge. Every week someone thinks they've found something nobody else has seen, and it's never the case.

Rather than asking yourself if the maths works why not ask yourself what you bring to the party all the PhDs and Nobel prize winners didn't bring when they looked at it.

It's not a personal criticism, just a reminder of the perils of the Dunning Kruger effect.
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Derek27
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Location: UK

I'm getting tired of explaining the flaws in loss recovery and found an appropriate picture instead, but well done to sniffer for calmly answering the question. :)
Last edited by Derek27 on Wed Mar 03, 2021 6:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
sniffer66
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Joined: Thu May 02, 2019 8:37 am

Derek27 wrote:
Wed Mar 03, 2021 6:27 pm
I'm getting tired of explaining the flaws in loss recovery and found an appropriate picture instead, but well do e to sniffer for calmly answering the question. :)
I did caveat my answer, it was more the technical challenge to achieve it that interested me ;)
MattP
Posts: 5
Joined: Mon Feb 08, 2021 9:34 pm

ShaunWhite wrote:
Wed Mar 03, 2021 3:36 pm
The maths of gambling has been known for over 250yrs and in that time hundreds of thousands of people have spent lifetimes studying it. If it was this simple than it would be common knowledge. Every week someone thinks they've found something nobody else has seen, and it's never the case.

Rather than asking yourself if the maths works why not ask yourself what you bring to the party all the PhDs and Nobel prize winners didn't bring when they looked at it.

It's not a personal criticism, just a reminder of the perils of the Dunning Kruger effect.
Completely understand and I'm certainly not thinking I've found a mathematical anomaly or something new.

I suppose if the strategy is good then set level stake (or % bank) and let it grow itself.

At the moment I've been testing over a fixed data set of around 5000 races. I am about to start multiple runs over varying random samples so that may well show the variance in a more realistic manner.
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