Seems that the most simple approach to forecasting BSP is to use the LTP in the last few seconds before off time, but it's not espescially accurate.
The other option is using the Projected SP from Betfair but since this only refreshes every minute, also not very accurate.
Is there a better way?
Is there a way to pull the "amount waiting to back selection at SP" and "amount waiting to lay selection at SP"? Is there was, this would at least give you some pointer as to whether BSP was likely to be above or below LTP.
Thoughts?
Predicting BSP
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ShaunWhite
- Posts: 9731
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
The sp ladder is in the api. But that and the projsp don't give many clues, if only they did.
SP is within 1% (usually 0.25%) of the last mid price but knowing that is of little use.
I saw that graph of yours recently ShaunWhite. I'm pretty sure that's not true for Australia.ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Sun Mar 07, 2021 1:54 pmThe sp ladder is in the api. But that and the projsp don't give many clues, if only they did.
SP is within 1% (usually 0.25%) of the last mid price but knowing that is of little use.
We had one here on the weekend in a big race in Syd that was mostly trading above 32 that SP'd 19! (Iim not sure what the LTP was)
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ShaunWhite
- Posts: 9731
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
Noted
I've seen a few funnies myself which appeared to be down to ultra late money on horses with almost nothing available. If it happens in bigger races too it raises some questions. Just the small matter of switching from hindsight to foresight and it's drinks all round.
