Dallas : How can you track wins/losses of a strategy

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NotBothered
Posts: 173
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2022 9:40 am

I am using the automation running profit and loss total that you have in the forum

but how can I use that value to keep track of the wins/losses

so on a win +1 on a loss -1

as long as the value is +1 I want it to bet - if its -1 then wait for the value to go to +1

.... basically just wanting to avoid getting stuck in a losing streak

thanks for any assistance Dallas .. cheers
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Kai
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Apologies for off-topic OP but was wondering how come certain posts like this one for example only show up on the forum many hours after they're actually posted? This one only has a few views and gets slightly buried because of time of posting, which is a shame since reduced visibility means less chance of getting a query answered and is less than ideal for potentially urgent queries etc.

Are first time posters really being filtered in manually?
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Dallas
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Kai wrote:
Thu Sep 29, 2022 11:56 am
Apologies for off-topic OP but was wondering how come certain posts like this one for example only show up on the forum many hours after they're actually posted? This one only has a few views and gets slightly buried because of time of posting, which is a shame since reduced visibility means less chance of getting a query answered and is less than ideal for potentially urgent queries etc.

Are first time posters really being filtered in manually?
All first posts require approval before they are visible to the forum, and we do try and do them as fast as possible

Its to prevent the forum being spammed to death, in a typical day we'd bin several new posts usually trying to sell Viagra, links to casinos, crypto currency or other get rich quick schemes etc etc
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Dallas
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NotBothered wrote:
Thu Sep 29, 2022 1:05 am
I am using the automation running profit and loss total that you have in the forum

but how can I use that value to keep track of the wins/losses

so on a win +1 on a loss -1

as long as the value is +1 I want it to bet - if its -1 then wait for the value to go to +1

.... basically just wanting to avoid getting stuck in a losing streak

thanks for any assistance Dallas .. cheers
If its a -1 and you don't want to bet anymore how would it then get back to a +1?
NotBothered
Posts: 173
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2022 9:40 am

can I use Market_Profit ?

if last result is "-" <0 then do not bet

if last result is "+" then bet

I tried to do this myself - but I could not get it to read the stored value for that .. which is the reason for the question
NotBothered
Posts: 173
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2022 9:40 am

+ the reason I want to do this is I am Dutching

so often there is 10-12 wins in a row - but then you can get 3-4 losers in a row

just to keep in calm would prefer to only bet following wins and not losses - and yes of course you can get whipsawed but the streaks when dutching can be long - so yeah any help would be appreciated to solve this
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Dallas
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NotBothered wrote:
Thu Sep 29, 2022 5:02 pm
can I use Market_Profit ?

if last result is "-" <0 then do not bet

if last result is "+" then bet

I tried to do this myself - but I could not get it to read the stored value for that .. which is the reason for the question
If the last result was a loss or your daily P/L has gone into a loss, then how will it become a positive without placing a another bet?
Which you said you only want to do once is back into a positive?
NotBothered
Posts: 173
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2022 9:40 am

in that code it has market_profit total_profit

I just need to access the profit from last race - if its negative no bet - if its positive then allow the bet

dallas.PNG
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ShaunWhite
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Forgetting all the plus 1 minus 1 stuff, is the issue that you have a losing strategy and you want to fix it by guessing which will be losers based on an unrelated prior event? Or are you trying to stop an unusually bad run?

Everything strategy has losers, and you can't tell which they'll be , so I can't see why you'd stop when things are normal and a loser happens ? 20 losers maybe, but one?
NotBothered
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For Dutching which I have run for about 2 weeks - it is making about $50 a day on smallish stakes

but the runs have been like 13 wins in a row and the longest losing streak has been 4 .. but to be honest I am going to scale this up to $300 per day and therefore prefer to just bet during the winning streaks and not tie up capital - should it hit 4 losses in a row ... especially given if you wait you can cash long winning streaks fairly easily.

For sure - maybe this feature is not necessary and I after testing maybe I do not use it -- but for right now I am stuck reading the value - and just seeing if Dallas can help me out - and how to incorporate that win/loss feature into the decision to bet or not.
NotBothered
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Just re-read your post Shaun

my answer - just lies in the fact that - in Dutching the winning streaks are long -- it is unusual to have W L W L W L it is more W W W W L W W L W W W W W W W L

but sometimes you get W L L L L W W W W W W L W W W W W W W W

so in terms of using capital and being able to use a decent bet size - I would like to test out a version with it and see how it affects daily profits... and if there is a benefit to it or not.

$50 a day is not hard - but moving to $300 a day - I would just like to use the absolute optimal strategy .. hope this makes sense
NotBothered
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Also I read in someone's posts on Dutching they have got a great strike rate - but when the losses come wipes out their daily profits in one go.

with the various conditions I have managed to stop that from happening so far - where it can make a profit each day

but I just figure the most important thing in Dutching is having the smallest number of losses possible .... anyway like I said - not sure what the difference will be - but I will run it and see -- if Dallas can point me in the right direction.
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ShaunWhite
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NotBothered wrote:
Thu Sep 29, 2022 10:36 pm

but I just figure the most important thing in Dutching is having the smallest number of losses possible ...
If only we could guess which they'd be it would be easy.

Let's say you have a long term strike rate of 65% and one loses.... What's the odds the next will be a winner? Its 65%. So if you stop on a loss you'll miss more winners than losers.

If you can't withstand a losing run of 20 or 30 loses then you're not staking appropriately. You shouldn't risk more than 1 or 2% of your bank, using stakes of up to 1/4 of your bank. Losing runs happen, everyone has them and you will too. A bad week or bad month shouldn't make it game over.
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ShaunWhite
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" but moving to $300 a day"

Just out of interest what do you think a good margin would be for a dutching strategy? eg How much money do you think you'll need to turn over per day to make $300?

It would be a good way to see if your current $50/day is realisitic long term given your current turnover.
NotBothered
Posts: 173
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2022 9:40 am

Shaun : great stuff glad you have taken some interest in this thread and one of the things I am doing.

My Break Even SR is 72% including commission discount .. Current SR is 82.5%

Losing 30 in a row in Dutching would mean your Strategy is flawed : and I have a fairly detailed selection criteria within the strategy - so 4 so far has been maximum loses per day and those came all in a row.

It is an interesting argument that one loss does not mean another is coming and sure you may have that train of thought and it is valid .. for me however it is not it is Drawdown vs Return .. so I control my Drawdown as much as possible.

As far as bankroll for $300 a day under current performance a bankroll of 10,000 is necessary

via Backtest over 6 months the data showed a 81% SR and daily bets of about 25/26 ... and in live testing over 2.5 weeks it has slightly outperformed those numbers but longer term those probably will be right... the main difference has been bet numbers slightly lower as I tighten the conditions.

(( I just wanted this in a version to test to see which did a better job of things - because to me it is valid : perhaps not necessary for you - or against your way of thinking but yeah hoping Dallas can give me a little help ))

Just so you know - I have other strategies that do $300 a day - $50 a day - $10 a day - just depending on what they are doing .. the thing is I needed some diversification - because it is tough to take when everything is a photo finish all the time .. so yeah Dutching is new for me ... I also built out Dutching for Horse Racing as well - but it does not bet as much as the greyhounds do .. which is why my interest is high at the moment to see what the effect may be.

As far as Strategy goes I have built

a. Back Strategy for Horse Racing - 5 Field to 14 Field
b. Lay Strategy for Horse Racing - 5 Field to 14 Field
c. Back Strategy for Greyhounds - 4 Field to 8 Field
d. Lay Strategy for Greyhounds - 4 Field to 8 Field
e. Dutching for Greyhounds - 7 Field and 8 Field
f. Dutching for Horse Racing - 8 Field + 9 Field - 10 Field
g. Sequence Betting for Greyhounds - 8 Field
h. Form Analysis Betting for Horse Racing - 8-10 Field
i. Place Betting for 8 Field Horse Racing based off the win strategies

Then I have specific Strategy for various smaller data sets - where it may only be 1 or 2 races a week that match that.

Total Strategies : 152 available to use

All I do is build a database and work out the numbers - and for form stuff I use strategy builders and then take the settings and load those into the automation.... all values are updated daily to keep DD as low as possible.

So while new to BA and still learning the programming - I have been at this for a while.
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