Question around using Stored Values to Influence the Stake Placed

[sionascaig]

Maybe some Devine entity is trying to protect your bank balance - I'd take that as a good sign...

If you genuinely think you have an edge then can just use a stake based of some fraction of balance and the size of your edge ==> its a lot simpler.

But basing stakes / exposure based on what happened in the last race is a quick way to the poor house...

[jamesedwards]

Try this. I've rewritten it to prevent any market triggering until the previously triggered market is closed.

I haven't tested it very thoroughly. Make sure you run it in practice mode to make sure it does what you expect.

Dutch Favourite 2 with 2.0 to 5.0 combined v5.baf

This is working fine for me. Perhaps the issue is caused by what you changed?

Try reverting back to this. Restart your Bet Angel before you start running it to make sure all stored values are cleared.

[smgreyuk]

Hi sionascaig,

Yes I agree with the fallacy of no memory between races and the downfall of a standard martingale approach - However I have done my homework on the probabilities of x amount of loses in a row.

I am not saying at some point that this will hit the limit of loses and take a loss at that point but I have calculated the amount of wins as well over millions of tests results via a spreadsheet and I can confidentially say the amount of profit exceeds the amount of loss over large amounts of test records - but I do appreciate your views on this, you're not wrong with having a view on progressive systems tanking, most of them certainly do.

Hi James Edwards,

Yeah I hear you, I think it's on some circusmstances whereby certain events happen in different orders between races, which eventually cause the counter to stick.

I have now added in this set of OR condition rules into the reset "market_open = 0" rule and I have eyeballed this in action and it looks right to me now, of course, I shall be testing this without any of my own money for the next few days:

Screenshot 2024-10-20 152411.png

[jamesedwards]

Hi sionascaig,

Yes I agree with the fallacy of no memory between races and the downfall of a standard martingale approach - However I have done my homework on the probabilities of x amount of loses in a row.

I am not saying at some point that this will hit the limit of loses and take a loss at that point but I have calculated the amount of wins as well over millions of tests results via a spreadsheet and I can confidentially say the amount of profit exceeds the amount of loss over large amounts of test records - but I do appreciate your views on this, you're not wrong with having a view on progressive systems tanking, most of them certainly do.

Hi James Edwards,

Yeah I hear you, I think it's on some circusmstances whereby certain events happen in different orders between races, which eventually cause the counter to stick.

I have now added in this set of OR condition rules into the reset "market_open = 0" rule and I have eyeballed this in action and it looks right to me now, of course, I shall be testing this without any of my own money for the next few days:

Screenshot 2024-10-20 152411.png

Capture49.JPG

This is the problem. You've changed this from 'for market' to 'for Bet Angel'.

Revert back to the file I posted. Restart Bet Angel before you run it to make sure any SVs are reset before you start.

[PBRSreeetGang]

Did you anyone get this working, I tested the rule but the counter doesn't seem to change

[jamesedwards]

Try this. I've rewritten it to prevent any market triggering until the previously triggered market is closed.

I haven't tested it very thoroughly. Make sure you run it in practice mode to make sure it does what you expect.

Dutch Favourite 2 with 2.0 to 5.0 combined v5.baf

This is one that is working fine.

I wouldn't advise using it though because increasing stake based on another non-related event is unlikely to deliver long-term profitability.

[PBRSreeetGang]

OK thanks, I have the counter working now
If there a way to add the running P&L?

[jamesedwards]

Running P&L is a stored value called Total_Profit set at Bet Angel level.

[jamesedwards]

A warning to all that doubling down after a loss is not a good strategy.

Just two weeks in this automation just hit the max 7 straight losers in a row and is triple-digits down. Hopefully the OP was not still running it.

5.3 3rd fav
16.5 6th fav
5.2 3rd fav
5.0 3rd fav
6.0 3rd fav
9.0 3rd fav
13.0 5th fav

[smgreyuk]

Nope I changed tactic.

I am currently laying weak favourites, just in the testing phase for it