Arbitrage and Affiliate commissions

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Joined: Tue Nov 24, 2009 12:17 am

Marshy10 wrote:Hi Nomadic,

"Sure, the losing side of your arb may sometimes be on the bookmaker's side (giving them a short term gain in that particular instance), but in the long run, those are losing bets for the bookmaker."

Can you please explain why in the long run these bets are bad for the bookmaker?
Hi Marshy - well, let's look at this way: if you put commissions aside, if you randomly bet on everything on Betfair where there was a fully liquid market (i.e. no gap between the back and lay prices), in the long run you probably either roughly breakeven or probably incur a slightly negative return (after commission of course, it would be a few percent less).

But what if you only bet on objects where you were offered odds that were 5% or more higher than what was on offer on Betfair - and there was also no commission? You might lose in the short run (if you are simply unlucky), but chances are you would win in the long run...

Perhaps your question comes from the assumption that bookmakers like to "balance" their books, and only move their odds to keep this balance? It's a popular misconception, but that's not really the case. Most punters (especially those that stick with using traditional bookmakers) overwhelmingly enjoy betting on favorites. And especially rarely bet on the draw.

In order for bookmakers to even potentially balance their books, they would have to increase the odds on the draw and on the underdog to such heights that it would exceed probability. But if you have the cash, it works out more profitably in the long run just to leave the book unbalanced and pocket big offsetting profits when the underdog wins or the result is a draw.
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Posts: 410
Joined: Fri Feb 18, 2011 8:01 pm
Location: Morden, London

Obviously, I need to go into more detail...

I'm a new punter and place £1,000 into bookie accounts and lose all this money over time, however my Betfair account is up by £1350.

This was due to using bookie welcome bonuses and playing arbitrage / matching back bets with lay bets on Betfair.

OK, so the bookies are up by £1,000 - do they keep all this money OR is some of it paid to the affiliate who told me which bets to place.

If so, how much could he/she make on £1,000 lost bets?
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Joined: Sun Nov 01, 2009 5:46 pm
Location: Glasgow

Hi there

Just go to the bookies sites and look at the Affiliates details and commissions for becoming one
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Posts: 410
Joined: Fri Feb 18, 2011 8:01 pm
Location: Morden, London

Bookie affiliate program
There is no negative balance carryover. Any negative balances are reset to zero at the start each month. When a player wins money at an online casino, they generate negative revenue, which translates into negative commissions for affiliates. We do not carryover this negative balance and resets an affiliate's commission balance to zero at the beginning of the next month. The account will start fresh and affiliates can profit from their promotional efforts, disregarding any previous negative balance.
Commissions paid are based on net losses per month - so the new clients only generate commissions if they lose more than any other client wins...

Therefore in the example above, I may have made up to £300 for the bookies' affiliate.

However, I would still like to hear from someone with experience of bookies affiliate commissions.
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