What is total volume matched telling me?

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Brovashift
Posts: 80
Joined: Tue May 18, 2021 12:35 am

Hey Yall...

I've lost my mojo today, think I'm too tired..! I'm struggling to commit to a decision, just feel like closing my eyes.

Im seeing price finding support at a particular level and moving sideways, and I am watching the total volume matched column, right side of the ladders, and I know this is the total back and lay bets successfully matched... But what else is it telling me? :?:

Im watching the numbers(K) go up and thinking there's an equal number of backers and layers at this price, which is why I am seeing the price/chart move sideways, but what is the catalyst that will indicate a potential direction to me? Is it the number of orders waiting to be matched above and below this price?

Also with that in mind... if I see larger orders waiting to be matched on one side of the market, this is telling me there is more demand/interest here and so expect to see price move in the opposite direct (reversed ladder)? Lay - higher, backed - lower prices.
The reason I ask this is because I have seen lay orders piling up 1000+, and back orders in the hundreds pushing price lower through any resistance lay orders. So I was just trying to work out what is going on there; is it just Back orders getting filled so fast that it doesn't actually show the total on my ladder, or is it the fact that there are less orders to be matched on one side and so the back price, in this example, moves first, before the 1000+ lay orders have a chance to complete?

Thanks
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decomez6
Posts: 373
Joined: Mon Oct 07, 2019 5:26 pm

Brovashift wrote:
Mon Jun 21, 2021 2:57 pm

... But what else is it telling me? :?:
what time was the volume matched?
-early morning as soon as the bets odd guaranteed (BOG) is announced?
-30 mins pre off?
-5 mins ?
-2 mins ?
or
-in play?

each session has different market movers forming part the matched volume.

-bookies
-horse owners
-form readers
-cold traders
-form reading /orderflow traders
-mug punters
-mug traders
- bots for and against all of the above.

volume matched indicates activity of interest, leaving behind a footprint that can form some level of support / resistance.
it can also help you workout who has the upper hand and what direction the market is about to take all depending on time /and amount.

some players (not all) , wont offer prices to the market especially when closing they prefer to take prices .this allows them to set up trades that takes time to mature using iceberg orders and they will close with a Bang ! leaving behind a trailer of stop losses carnage .

liquidity and fill rates determines what kind of opponents you are up against, so choose wisely .

how i see it and it could be iam just building imaginary castles in the air, may be the reality is totally different , but i like to tell myself stories , helps to make sense of all those moving parts .

tea break..........
Brovashift
Posts: 80
Joined: Tue May 18, 2021 12:35 am

decomez6 wrote:
Tue Jun 22, 2021 9:52 am
Brovashift wrote:
Mon Jun 21, 2021 2:57 pm

... But what else is it telling me? :?:
what time was the volume matched?
-early morning as soon as the bets odd guaranteed (BOG) is announced?
-30 mins pre off?
-5 mins ?
-2 mins ?
or
-in play?

each session has different market movers forming part the matched volume.

-bookies
-horse owners
-form readers
-cold traders
-form reading /orderflow traders
-mug punters
-mug traders
- bots for and against all of the above.

volume matched indicates activity of interest, leaving behind a footprint that can form some level of support / resistance.
it can also help you workout who has the upper hand and what direction the market is about to take all depending on time /and amount.

some players (not all) , wont offer prices to the market especially when closing they prefer to take prices .this allows them to set up trades that takes time to mature using iceberg orders and they will close with a Bang ! leaving behind a trailer of stop losses carnage .

liquidity and fill rates determines what kind of opponents you are up against, so choose wisely .

how i see it and it could be iam just building imaginary castles in the air, may be the reality is totally different , but i like to tell myself stories , helps to make sense of all those moving parts .

tea break..........
Brilliant... this is exactly what I was looking for.

It will take me time to break all this down, but lots to work with there... I will come back with questions soon.

Thanks decomez6 ;)
Brovashift
Posts: 80
Joined: Tue May 18, 2021 12:35 am

decomez6 wrote:
Tue Jun 22, 2021 9:52 am
Brovashift wrote:
Mon Jun 21, 2021 2:57 pm

... But what else is it telling me? :?:
what time was the volume matched?
-early morning as soon as the bets odd guaranteed (BOG) is announced?
-30 mins pre off?
-5 mins ?
-2 mins ?
or
-in play?

each session has different market movers forming part the matched volume.

-bookies
-horse owners
-form readers
-cold traders
-form reading /orderflow traders
-mug punters
-mug traders
- bots for and against all of the above.

volume matched indicates activity of interest, leaving behind a footprint that can form some level of support / resistance.
it can also help you workout who has the upper hand and what direction the market is about to take all depending on time /and amount.

some players (not all) , wont offer prices to the market especially when closing they prefer to take prices .this allows them to set up trades that takes time to mature using iceberg orders and they will close with a Bang ! leaving behind a trailer of stop losses carnage .

liquidity and fill rates determines what kind of opponents you are up against, so choose wisely .

how i see it and it could be iam just building imaginary castles in the air, may be the reality is totally different , but i like to tell myself stories , helps to make sense of all those moving parts .

tea break..........
Hi Decomez6,

Thanks again for this little window into your mind when it comes to trading.

I would say that I personally fall somewhere in between the cold trader and order flow category, approximately 5-10mins before post time is when I have my most success. I have been wondering how someone goes about placing a swing trade, which I assume would come under the early morning traders, when BOG are announced.

Looking on Google I can see statements regarding the time of BOG announcements by Bet365 and Paddy Power, but these just state early morning. Is there a specific time in the morning when a trader can view these across the market in order to come up with a bias for a swing trade... or, are BOG bookmaker specific, and so required individual research to obtain the necessary information?

Also, is there somewhere I can get this info on the correlations between market participants & times? In a nice easy table format would be ideal. Unless you can shoot me over a quick explanation in your reply for me to put into a nice easy table format for future reference? ;)

Not sure if I can mention this on here; but have you had an experience with Caan Berry, sports trader? He has a video pack that I believe goes more into the fundamentals of trading/horse's, and thought maybe this might have the additional info Im looking for. But I only usually purchase things like that on recommendation.

Is a Mug Trader a trader who doesn't hedge? And so turns his trade into a punt?

With regards to volume matched helping to identify who has the upper hand by create some form of support/resistance, would one way to identify direction be to wait for confirmation in either direction i.e. break above, layers in control, or break below, backers in control?
Does also seeing volume matched increasing on one side of a support/resistance price level give an early indication of direction, or is this just a shifting support/resistance level? and so not a catalyst to take action yet.

I wont worry too much about iceberg orders at the moment because if I have understood them correctly, there isn't much a can do about them if I cant see them, just have to try and recognise them if I find myself caught up on the wrong side of one.

Thanks again. :ugeek:
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jamesedwards
Posts: 571
Joined: Wed Nov 21, 2018 6:16 pm

I didn't understand exactly what made up matched value until relatively recently. I always assumed it was the liability of the backer plus the liability of the layer. However, it is (IMO very unintuitively), the back value matched by the backer plus the back value matched by the layer.

This leads to some interesting gearing depending on prices of matches:
> at a price of 2.0 a £100 back value trade (therefore a back liability of £100 and lay liability of £100) the matched volume will increase by 2x£100=£200.
> but at a price of 1.2 a £500 back value trade (therefore a back liability of £500 and lay liability of £100) the matched volume will increase by 2x£500=£1000.
> and at a price of 1.01 a £10,000 back value trade (therefore a back liability of £10,000 and lay liability of £100) the matched volume will increase by 2x£10,000=£20,000.

Even as I type this now it feels like this can't be the way Betfair measure volume. Please someone confirm if the above is correct or whether I remain confused?
Last edited by jamesedwards on Thu Jun 24, 2021 7:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Dallas
Posts: 17466
Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:57 pm
Contact:

jamesedwards wrote:
Thu Jun 24, 2021 7:10 pm
I didn't understand exactly what made up matched value until relatively recently. It is simply, (but IMO very unintuitively), the back value matched by the backer plus the back value matched by the layer.

This leads to some interesting gearing depending on prices of matches:
> at a price of 2.0 a £100 trade (back liability of £100 and lay liability of £100) the matched volume will increase by 2x£100=£200.
> but at a price of 1.2 a £500 trade (back liability of £500 and lay liability of £100) the matched volume will increase by 2x£500=£1000.
> and at a price of 1.01 a £10,000 trade (back liability of £10,000 and lay liability of £100) the matched volume will increase by 2x£10,000=£20,000.

Even as I type this now it feels like this can't be the way Betfair measure volume. Please someone confirm if the above is correct or whether I remain confused?
Betfair simply count it by the actual amounts, so a £750 back bet matched against £750 lay bet gives a traded volume of £1500, regardless of the price it was matched at.

Betdaq however do it the way you described which helps inflate what appears to be matched (although there is a option in the Bet Angel Betdaq software that will let you set which way its calculated/displayed)
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decomez6
Posts: 373
Joined: Mon Oct 07, 2019 5:26 pm

Brovashift wrote:
Thu Jun 24, 2021 5:18 pm
decomez6 wrote:
Tue Jun 22, 2021 9:52 am
Brovashift wrote:
Mon Jun 21, 2021 2:57 pm
Hi Decomez6,

. I have been wondering how someone goes about placing a swing trade, which I assume would come under the early morning traders, when BOG are announced.
Also, is there somewhere I can get this info on the correlations between market participants & times? In a nice easy table format would be ideal.

Not sure if I can mention this on here; but have you had an experience with Caan Berry, sports trader?
Morning trading requires more research pertaining liquidity and fill rates . Your stakes will need to be appropriately sized to fit a highly porous and volatile market. If you stake too high , the market takes on a spooky flight and you shall be chasing that ghost all day long , a very costly hobby indeed.

Btwn 9 am - 11am you get the BOG trading window . You also have tipsters adding into the mix.
I am not aware of a BOG list opening times , will let you know if I come accross anything similar. In the mean time you should be more be concerned about the players you are up against during such early morning hours. They are value betting ,form reading traders .some of them have valuable information which helps them to quickly identify value and place bets accordingly .
You being an order flow trader , will be making your decisions based on what you see happening on the adder. They will be making their decisions based on what they know outside the ladder . While You are literally following their money you can easily fall into a trap ( by design or default) of getting emotionally attached to your trades and fear missing out . So be aware , the morning session is like a mock test of what will happen during the day . The bookies and the big players use it to test the waters.
NB :big players also play against each other , some of them have different agendas hence different approaches , even when faced with similar prepositions. Your job is to stay in your lane and wait until one of them shows their moves then you strike, hoping to catch some of the action.

Caan Berry, is a live wire !
You want a a tribal war ( caan-anites vs Peter -lites)? :D
There is no bad audience in showbiz it’s all value .The followers of caan also form part of betangel viewership and vise versa.
Peter should have recruited caan for promotional purposes but the geeks got there fast! But again caan is not into automation .
You as a ‘ beggar’ of information , have no choice .
Take what you get and fly with it .
When you see money on the ladder you take it , you don’t ask where is it from . Bet angel or geek you take them all !!
User avatar
decomez6
Posts: 373
Joined: Mon Oct 07, 2019 5:26 pm

Is a Mug Trader a trader who doesn't hedge? And so turns his trade into a punt?



That’s punting , which is not necessarily a mug .
Some traders open and close positions which they then let run as a gamble . This can maximise their trading profit with 0 risk to their bank and they can as well loose the whole profit if they choose not hedge it.
I describe a mug trader as :
- cannot identify or quantify his edge .
-deluded by little or insufficient knowledge .
-over confident.
-no trading plan .
-easily swayed by the ‘ dream of success.’
-mugged (loosing bank ) by muggers ( a growing bank)
…. I think I should stop there , as the saying goes “ when pointing a finger , it’s always good to remember that four of the fingers are pointing back at you “ … May be i only need to look in the mirror to see a mug trader in denial. :shock:
Brovashift
Posts: 80
Joined: Tue May 18, 2021 12:35 am

decomez6 wrote:
Fri Jun 25, 2021 3:31 am
Brovashift wrote:
Thu Jun 24, 2021 5:18 pm
decomez6 wrote:
Tue Jun 22, 2021 9:52 am
Hi Decomez6,

. I have been wondering how someone goes about placing a swing trade, which I assume would come under the early morning traders, when BOG are announced.
Also, is there somewhere I can get this info on the correlations between market participants & times? In a nice easy table format would be ideal.

Not sure if I can mention this on here; but have you had an experience with Caan Berry, sports trader?
Morning trading requires more research pertaining liquidity and fill rates . Your stakes will need to be appropriately sized to fit a highly porous and volatile market. If you stake too high , the market takes on a spooky flight and you shall be chasing that ghost all day long , a very costly hobby indeed.

Btwn 9 am - 11am you get the BOG trading window . You also have tipsters adding into the mix.
I am not aware of a BOG list opening times , will let you know if I come accross anything similar. In the mean time you should be more be concerned about the players you are up against during such early morning hours. They are value betting ,form reading traders .some of them have valuable information which helps them to quickly identify value and place bets accordingly .
You being an order flow trader , will be making your decisions based on what you see happening on the adder. They will be making their decisions based on what they know outside the ladder . While You are literally following their money you can easily fall into a trap ( by design or default) of getting emotionally attached to your trades and fear missing out . So be aware , the morning session is like a mock test of what will happen during the day . The bookies and the big players use it to test the waters.
NB :big players also play against each other , some of them have different agendas hence different approaches , even when faced with similar prepositions. Your job is to stay in your lane and wait until one of them shows their moves then you strike, hoping to catch some of the action.

Caan Berry, is a live wire !
You want a a tribal war ( caan-anites vs Peter -lites)? :D
There is no bad audience in showbiz it’s all value .The followers of caan also form part of betangel viewership and vise versa.
Peter should have recruited caan for promotional purposes but the geeks got there fast! But again caan is not into automation .
You as a ‘ beggar’ of information , have no choice .
Take what you get and fly with it .
When you see money on the ladder you take it , you don’t ask where is it from . Bet angel or geek you take them all !!
Hi Decomez6,

Sorry for my late response in showing my appreciation for all these golden nuggets you have shared. I was sidetracked by a lot of Matched Betting offers blowing up my inbox, and had to travel to Liverpool a couple of times recently which has kept me away from my computer.

Your insight has opened up several more questions that will inevitably leads me down some more information path ways over the coming weeks, and help further widen my knowledge and experience.

I will let you know how I get on.

Thanks again. 8-)
User avatar
decomez6
Posts: 373
Joined: Mon Oct 07, 2019 5:26 pm

not gubbed yet :) trading is here to stay , so no pressure.
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