Cut Your Losses?? (Mean Reversion)

Learn sports betting strategies and discuss key factors to consider when placing a bet.
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abgespaced
Posts: 174
Joined: Sun Aug 23, 2020 2:25 am
Location: Australia

Well, because this post was bumped I'll chime in. Now that I feel I've got some kind of trading sense, "cutting your losses" to me means that I've made the wrong decision and the true value is now being reflected in the market price in opposition to what I thought the value was. It doesn't necessarily mean the price has gone against me after taking a position. The price often goes against me after taking a position, because the market is on the wrong side of the true value. So I hold my nerve and wait for a correction. But if I really have go it wrong, some signs will show and I will close out.
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Thebest147
Posts: 92
Joined: Thu Nov 05, 2015 8:01 am

If your opening order is taken quickly and it moves against you your on the wrong side and cut,
There aren't to many dummies playing on betfair you have to assume they know move the you,
Vaz0202
Posts: 76
Joined: Sat Jun 27, 2020 7:53 pm

I started trialing a new system this weekend and I noticed my stop losses were taken before my trades. I watched the market carefully. The price then came in. This happened again over the next 5 events. Price came in.

Had there been no stop loss, all my trades would have gone green, and then some.

When automating, it is difficult to place that red exit
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 7717
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Vaz0202 wrote:
Sun Jun 19, 2022 8:32 pm
I started trialing a new system this weekend and I noticed my stop losses were taken before my trades. I watched the market carefully. The price then came in. This happened again over the next 5 events. Price came in.

Had there been no stop loss, all my trades would have gone green, and then some.

When automating, it is difficult to place that red exit
You've discovered the issue with stop losses, they don't give you any advantage, and over time they break even at best.

I suggest you simply approach each bet with the same thought process, a reason to back and a reason to lay. That reason is never that you're £x up or down because the market doesn't know or care about that, so therefore you shouldn't. The market also doesn't care if you're opening a position or closing one, so respond to the market rather than considering what bets you happened to have some time before. I automate too, and the logic is just to bet, bet ,bet whatever side is appropriate, and then at the end, hedge any outstanding positions if there are any.
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