From zero to ???

Learn sports betting strategies and discuss key factors to consider when placing a bet.
Tiesto13
Posts: 29
Joined: Tue Aug 08, 2023 2:39 pm

Not a great week for me.

Cricket

Was trying to do too much I think, and ended up getting into some poor positions on the England Afghanistan game, then started chasing my losses and ended up blowing my bank.

Have taken this as a big learning point, that really I need to be very clear on what I'm doing and why. And also when a trade goes against me, not to panic, and to take the small loss on it.

So this week, have been focusing on builidng the foundations of a trading strategy rather than jumping straight in (which I probably should have done to begin with) focusing more on building data collection methods, and systems to track what I'm doing and which trading methods are successful or not.

On more positive news, got my biggest ever win from my cricket value betting this morning thanks to the work I put in over the weekend on ChatGPT and my cricket data collection, so that bank is looking pretty healthy right now.

Football
My lay the draw strategy is back in profit, but only marginally so and its still very early days to tell whether it will be successful or not. Have been a bit more wary of international games so haven't had as many opportunities to apply this so far.

Horse racing
I'm continuing to dabble with mixed results. In the pre-race market have had a couple of trades where exactly what I was expecting to happen happened. But then had some go against me. Again, really need to avoid trying to do to much and not feel the need to jump in and do something for the sake of it. In-play, similarly I need to be more selective. On the trades I feel pretty confident about, I'm making some great trades I think, but I also end up making mistakes when I'm unsure about something but getting involved for the sake of it.
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Kai
Posts: 6376
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

Tiesto13 wrote:
Wed Oct 18, 2023 2:13 pm
Was trying to do too much I think, and ended up getting into some poor positions on the England Afghanistan game, then started chasing my losses and ended up blowing my bank.
Tbh would likely happen even if you stuck to one market like people suggested, hopefully big lessons can be learned moving forward. I had one big tilt at the start and that was enough for me to completely change direction.
Tiesto13 wrote:
Wed Oct 18, 2023 2:13 pm
I also end up making mistakes when I'm unsure about something but getting involved for the sake of it.
This is actually good, if you stake according to your confidence. If the lessons learned and insight gained from these mistakes outweigh the small losses then this is a +EV strategy in itself over the long term.

KUTGW 👍
Michael5482
Posts: 1318
Joined: Fri Jan 14, 2022 8:11 pm

Tiesto13 wrote:
Wed Oct 18, 2023 2:13 pm
Not a great week for me.

Cricket

Was trying to do too much I think, and ended up getting into some poor positions on the England Afghanistan game, then started chasing my losses and ended up blowing my bank.

Have taken this as a big learning point, that really I need to be very clear on what I'm doing and why. And also when a trade goes against me, not to panic, and to take the small loss on it.

So this week, have been focusing on builidng the foundations of a trading strategy rather than jumping straight in (which I probably should have done to begin with) focusing more on building data collection methods, and systems to track what I'm doing and which trading methods are successful or not.

On more positive news, got my biggest ever win from my cricket value betting this morning thanks to the work I put in over the weekend on ChatGPT and my cricket data collection, so that bank is looking pretty healthy right now.

Football
My lay the draw strategy is back in profit, but only marginally so and its still very early days to tell whether it will be successful or not. Have been a bit more wary of international games so haven't had as many opportunities to apply this so far.

Horse racing
I'm continuing to dabble with mixed results. In the pre-race market have had a couple of trades where exactly what I was expecting to happen happened. But then had some go against me. Again, really need to avoid trying to do to much and not feel the need to jump in and do something for the sake of it. In-play, similarly I need to be more selective. On the trades I feel pretty confident about, I'm making some great trades I think, but I also end up making mistakes when I'm unsure about something but getting involved for the sake of it.
Sounds like your trying to do to much at once. If you've blown a bank maybe have a little break, take stock and look to master yourself before the markets. There's a clear issue with you thinking you've entered poor positions and chasing looses and that needs addressing before you go forward or it'll happen again. You need to break the cycle.

To throw a curve ball in there how do you know you entered poor trades on the England game? I don't think you do because you chased losses, it's perfectly reasonable to enter a trade and loose on one game but over 100 games your positions could of been net positive but you've not given it a chance because of your behavior in the market.

Have a break pick a sport, pick a strategy, write your trading plan down and implement that plan when you get a loss write down how that loss came about along with how you feel, turn your computer off and go for a walk and come back the next day instead of blowing your bank. Score your trades and create a feed back loop and find out why.
Tiesto13
Posts: 29
Joined: Tue Aug 08, 2023 2:39 pm

Cheers for the thoughts (even if slightly contradictory :D ). And I think I'm aware that I'm probably trying to do too much, but I'm also learning huge amounts (and am using a small bank) so am happy to continue doing so for now. But I definitely need to check myself next time I find trades going against me and as you say, maybe log off and leave it for a day rather than doing anything rash.

The point around building a scoring system for my trades, thats exactly what I've spent the past couple of days building out. On the cricket runs line, every bet you make is at evens. So you just need to get a more than 50% hit rate to win. So its incredibly easy to score how well you're doing (albeit I'll need a very big sample to work out whether I have a genuine edge or I'm just benefiting from variance.

I've got a strategy for four different defined entry and exit points which instinctively to me feel like they are sensible positions to take, and have built a tracking spreadsheet for each of these separately, so I can track which ones actually work and how well. I'm then planning to scale right down to £1 stakes and just keep it ticking over game after game and see how I do.
zippus
Posts: 181
Joined: Thu Jun 13, 2019 3:19 pm

I’ve tried loads of stuff and have have only made a long-term success in a couple of sports (football and automated horse racing), allbeit over a series of strategies in these sports.

What I found really helpful is tracking my results and working out the win rate for each strategy. I also look at the average win per trade and the average loss per trade. On the football for example, I’ve found that I win on average 60% of the trades. My focus is trying to keep this win rate whilst equalising the average profit and loss per trade. Put very simply, I know that if I back at 2 and above and lay below 2, and can maintain the 60% win rate, I’ll have a profitable edge. Whilst I’ve not quite reached parity in terms of the average win per trade and average loss per trade, the numbers are pleasing and should be scalable.

Hope this helps and good luck!
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Tiesto13
Posts: 29
Joined: Tue Aug 08, 2023 2:39 pm

So a weekly update. The past week was all about discipline.

Cricket

Not really trading, but my cricket value betting got turbo charged last week as I had an incredible run of luck and it led to me completing the first doubling of my bank. Obviously a huge amount of variance here and I've hit a very healthy winning streak recently, but I'm also now pretty convinced that I have found genuine value here, and have started to speak to a couple of friends who work for bookies/are professional gamblers about how to continue ensuring I get bets on etc in shops as I look to scale this up. I'm also look to scale this up slightly into a couple more markets.

On the trading front, I'm still working on several strategies on how best to exploit the huge volitility you can see inplay. I've got some very low risk entry and exit points currently, which I feel comfortable putting big amounts of money through, but the idea is to be in and out of the market around a very small timeframe and giving yourself a small window of opportunity. I'm also playing around with predicting overs and unders in the cricket market with £1 stakes based on the data I've collected, but its not exactly easy to predict this stuff given the huge numbers of variables involved.

Football

Have been involved in relatively few matches this week due to having stuff on in the evenings/over the weekend.

Horses

This is the main area where I've been focussing on discipline and I think its paying off. A few things that I've been doing
- spending much longer on each race studying the market before making a move
- entering the market earlier if I think I have spotted an opportunity
- letting my positions run for longer even if out of the money, not panicking at the first sign that they've gone against me
- if I have to red up at some point (and on one occassion for a big loss that ate up a lot of monday's profits), shutting down betangel and leaving it for another day
- also, if I've had a run of success, still taking a break after a few races and coming back to it later in the day

All of this has been helped I think by the lack of races available to trade the past couple of days, so I haven't felt like I've got to continuously jump between races like the past couple of weeks. The results have been good. I've been profiting on the large majority of races. Not for huge amounts, and I do still think that all I'm doing is benefiting from random noise at times rather than necessarily predicting exactly what the market will do, but it does seem to be paying off. Between Monday and today I've gotten involved in 17 races, gotten a profit on 15 of these and a loss on 2 all between the -£2 and £2 mark.
Tiesto13
Posts: 29
Joined: Tue Aug 08, 2023 2:39 pm

So it’s been two weeks since my last update.

Cricket
After gradually making progress I had my best day to date on Australia Afghanistan. One of my low risk, low likelihood to occur but high risk trades came off, and then I had two great trades on the game, firstly backing Afghanistan when they were put in on a belter of a pitch and watching the price come into my predefined exit point within a few overs. And then using some of that greened up profit to back Australia once it was clear Maxwell was on song. Greened up that position quite early but still came out of the game with a profit of almost my initial stake risked.

At the same time though my value betting is going from strength to strength and I’m going to focus more time and attention in this I think. Although that might be hard with a lack of international games to bet on…

Football
My laying the draw strategy is now £70 up, although it’s benefited strongly from two games which had last minute goals to avoid a 0-0 recently. Will continue grinding away with it though

Horse racing
I don’t know if these are the markets for me. Every time I think I’m making progress I get knocked back. Am going to try a small bit of automation I think and see what that returns, but might give up on manual trading here.
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Kai
Posts: 6376
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

Tiesto13 wrote:
Wed Nov 08, 2023 1:00 pm
Horse racing
I don’t know if these are the markets for me. Every time I think I’m making progress I get knocked back.
It will likely feel similar with other sports too at one point or another, one bad session is all it takes early on.

Not all progress is directly measurable by P&L right away either, always thought that learning how fickle these markets can be is part of every trader's bootcamp, but your mentals overall could strengthen as a result.

Just something to keep in mind 👍 KUTGW
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ShaunWhite
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Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Kai wrote:
Wed Nov 08, 2023 1:38 pm
Not all progress is directly measurable by P&L right away
It's not the usual way we learn. Usually you fall it hurts you don't do it again. With trading you need to learn to fall 49%.of the time not 51%.of the time. And on top of that you can lose when you're right or win when you're not, and also have to remember what you did last week with the clarity of 5 minutes ago so you can do it slightly differently. No great surprise it's so difficult.
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Kai
Posts: 6376
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Wed Nov 08, 2023 6:21 pm
Kai wrote:
Wed Nov 08, 2023 1:38 pm
Not all progress is directly measurable by P&L right away
It's not the usual way we learn. Usually you fall it hurts you don't do it again. With trading you need to learn to fall 49%.of the time not 51%.of the time. And on top of that you can lose when you're right or win when you're not, and also have to remember what you did last week with the clarity of 5 minutes ago so you can do it slightly differently. No great surprise it's so difficult.
Yes it's all annoyingly counter-intuitive in more ways than one, you practically have to be aware of market complexities in order to simplify your trading, heh. I say annoyingly because you "can't know what you don't know", since you obviously can't know about things you have yet to discover.

Image

But hard to discover anything really when loss aversion is your default setting! And even harder to tweak some of those settings, you might as well be altering your DNA :)

Logically speaking the areas where you're facing the most challenges are also the areas where you have the most to learn. IMO. Similar to how concepts you don't understand at all are probably the concepts you need the most. I mean, what kinda trading veteran doesn't have any battle scars?

You have to build that tolerance, and building it through exposure definitely works. For example, if you've got a crippling fear of rejection try asking out a 100 women over the next 10 days and see how you feel about that fear afterwards. It's similar with losses, the first couple big losses will hurt the most, but eventually you won't even consider chasing them by doing something incredibly stupid.
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Derek27
Posts: 24064
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Kai wrote:
Wed Nov 08, 2023 7:47 pm
ShaunWhite wrote:
Wed Nov 08, 2023 6:21 pm
Kai wrote:
Wed Nov 08, 2023 1:38 pm
Not all progress is directly measurable by P&L right away
It's not the usual way we learn. Usually you fall it hurts you don't do it again. With trading you need to learn to fall 49%.of the time not 51%.of the time. And on top of that you can lose when you're right or win when you're not, and also have to remember what you did last week with the clarity of 5 minutes ago so you can do it slightly differently. No great surprise it's so difficult.
Yes it's all annoyingly counter-intuitive in more ways than one, you practically have to be aware of market complexities in order to simplify your trading, heh. I say annoyingly because you "can't know what you don't know", since you obviously can't know about things you have yet to discover.

Image

But hard to discover anything really when loss aversion is your default setting! And even harder to tweak some of those settings, you might as well be altering your DNA :)

Logically speaking the areas where you're facing the most challenges are also the areas where you have the most to learn. IMO. Similar to how concepts you don't understand at all are probably the concepts you need the most. I mean, what kinda trading veteran doesn't have any battle scars?

You have to build that tolerance, and building it through exposure definitely works. For example, if you've got a crippling fear of rejection try asking out a 100 women over the next 10 days and see how you feel about that fear afterwards. It's similar with losses, the first couple big losses will hurt the most, but eventually you won't even consider chasing them by doing something incredibly stupid.
Nobody explains it better than this guy. :mrgreen:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GiPe1OiKQuk
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Kai
Posts: 6376
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

Derek27 wrote:
Wed Nov 08, 2023 10:45 pm
Nobody explains it better than this guy. :mrgreen:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GiPe1OiKQuk
Indeed. His quotes have been around the forum more than once, so went for a slightly different twist there ;)
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Derek27
Posts: 24064
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Kai wrote:
Thu Nov 09, 2023 12:47 am
Derek27 wrote:
Wed Nov 08, 2023 10:45 pm
Nobody explains it better than this guy. :mrgreen:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GiPe1OiKQuk
Indeed. His quotes have been around the forum more than once, so went for a slightly different twist there ;)
The quote has defined his career. :lol:
Tiesto13
Posts: 29
Joined: Tue Aug 08, 2023 2:39 pm

Cricket
Good day today on the runs lines markets. Got burnt for the first time on the 10 overs run line this morning with a trade that I've been placing all world cup with some success as Rohit went for it from ball 1. Had avoided this trade on India all tournament for this very reason, but thought the fact they were on a used pitch might make him slightly more circumspect today, but I guess I called it wrong. Still, that mistake was more than made up for by a run line victory on the 50 over market.

Football
Had a bit of a learning moment with my lay the draw strategy when after a goal had been scored I went in and put a bet in, got it matched and then switched off, only to find out after the game had finished that the goal had been disallowed and my bet voided. That coupled with a 0-0 puts me back at breakeven here.

Horse racing
So I had a bit of a rough day yesterday. Having said I wasn't sure if horse race trading was for me, I had an epiphany of sorts on Sunday evening, when everything seemed to come together a bit for me as to how I might try and profit from it (I'm not sure its anything particularly clever, more aiming to profit from random variance than anything else). After not really having much time to do anything on Monday, I started afresh on Tuesday with my new strategy and process in place. Unfortunately it blew up in my face on race 1 as I was on the wrong side of a massive drift that never came back in my favour, after which I made a couple of unwise calls (that were outside of my initial strategy) as I tried to win back that initial loss. Ended up calling it a day midway through the afternoon as I was losing it a bit.

I don't think there was anything wrong with my strategy, and as people have pointed out to me, I have to accept that losses are a part and parcel of trading. Its weird, I can accept them in my betting strategies, but in trading I dunno, maybe I'm conditioned somewhat to expect a see of green P&Ls. Whereas what I'm actually after is more green than red across all my P&Ls.

Anyway, I've continued the strategy I had today, and it produced a small but relatively stress free profit.

I've also discovered the BSP datafiles, which seem like a great resource, albeit not one I really know how to utilise yet. My initial thought is as a good place to identify dobbing opportunities, with the caveat that I need to investigate anything thrown up by these further. It also seems like a great resource to use should I want to try and build a model for value betting in horse racing, however thats obviously an incredibly complicated project.
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