Anbell wrote: ↑Wed Jan 31, 2024 6:38 amBeating BSP is a very good starting point. I doubt that any of us can beat it 80% of the time over a reasonable sample.Fugazi wrote: ↑Tue Jan 30, 2024 6:25 pmHow far above BSP to be sure you're making profit?
I've been analysing another failed method of mine (small sample, 30 bets). I have found that on cross referencing BSP and the odds I backed at, I seem to be above BSP 80% of the time!
so for example I back at 2.28 - BSP was 2.24
I know there is no strict answer, but I wonder when you consider commission and BSP not always being the true value, what people think a rough ballpark would be to profit long term? Also, I need to check the times I was under value, if these are wildly more under value than the times I got over value. I suspect this will be the most likely finding in a bigger sample.
You also need to consider the entire equation: 80% * (size of beat) + 20% * (size of miss)
As you are a beginner, if you're beating BSP by 80% you should get out of your trades at BSP and minimize your commission. It'd be very difficult to blow a bank while you learn.
I was thinking more of just backing at these prices and not trading (so really just pure value betting). The reason the method failed was that I wasn't able to trade out successfully everytime. It was an automated scalp sometimes it wasn't getting the bet to trade out fast enough (I need a bigger sample to see if I could start backing at best available price in these instances)
As you said, tiny sample size. But currently letting it run for a bigger sample to then try find a pattern from the best value bets, in the likely event 20% * (size of miss) is too large to profit currently.