General Accepted Observations: Races, Horses and Tracks

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BigJ
Posts: 118
Joined: Fri Jun 23, 2017 10:33 am

Hi

I'm looking for a list of general observations when it come to horses , race types and tracks. Often the things commentators say pre-race for e.g. example over exposed horses don't run as well towards the latter part of the season.

I'm sure there isn't a list on the forum but if there is please point me in the right direction.

If not then It would be great to get a list on this thread from the more experienced people willing to share.

Thanks in advance

Jordan
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megarain
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This list could be endless .. but, v v useful.

From experience, I know a few things.

Hardest tracks, for bookies to win at (meaning, favs/gambles, win a LOT)

Windsor
Uttoxeter
Leicester

//

The art of paddock analysis has largely been lost. If u can accurately assess an un-raced animals fitness, u can make a living wage.
BigJ
Posts: 118
Joined: Fri Jun 23, 2017 10:33 am

megarain wrote:
Sat Jul 08, 2017 9:30 am
This list could be endless .. but, v v useful.

From experience, I know a few things.

Hardest tracks, for bookies to win at (meaning, favs/gambles, win a LOT)

Windsor
Uttoxeter
Leicester

//

The art of paddock analysis has largely been lost. If u can accurately assess an un-raced animals fitness, u can make a living wage.
Thanks
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megarain
Posts: 1400
Joined: Thu May 16, 2013 1:26 pm
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1st 4 races at Leicester .. 1st 4 favs .. pisshole.
BigJ
Posts: 118
Joined: Fri Jun 23, 2017 10:33 am

megarain wrote:
Sat Jul 08, 2017 3:10 pm
1st 4 races at Leicester .. 1st 4 favs .. pisshole.
Lovely...can't say I was on them but nice all the same :)
invisiblelayer
Posts: 190
Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2010 7:08 pm

megarain wrote:
Sat Jul 08, 2017 9:30 am
This list could be endless .. but, v v useful.

From experience, I know a few things.

Hardest tracks, for bookies to win at (meaning, favs/gambles, win a LOT)

Windsor
Uttoxeter
Leicester

//

The art of paddock analysis has largely been lost. If u can accurately assess an un-raced animals fitness, u can make a living wage.
Would love the racing channels to focus on the paddock pre race, rather than having to listen to pundits like Mappletoft droning on. So much gets missed at your average run of mill meetings. I'm certainly no paddock judge but you miss so much if your just tuned into ATR compared to being there
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jimibt
Posts: 2721
Joined: Mon Nov 30, 2015 6:42 pm

megarain wrote:
Sat Jul 08, 2017 3:10 pm
1st 4 races at Leicester .. 1st 4 favs .. pisshole.
i know it's very uncool to necro-post but i stumbled on this old post when looking for something else and it sparked a question i'd been meaning to ask for a long time.

the OP here asks about metrics for race types, tracks etc and it is acknowledged that it would be useful to have a LIST of sorts that identified peculiarities that exist around certain tracks, race types etc. Mega, you yourself came back with a list of 3 courses that irritate the hell out of bookies, due to the high prevelance of faves winnning on them.

would love to see a more exhaustive list along those lines as i really think a resource of this sort would be useful to both novice traders/bettors as well as the seasoned players...

looking fwd to the avalanche :D
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Euler
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I spent a couple of years looking at course purely from the in-play perspective. It dawned on me that most courses in the UK are radically different and run that way. The undulating course at Chepstow runs, nothing like the straight mile at Ascot and the downhill finish at Goodwood is also radically different.

But nowhere can I see where anybody else has delved this deep. It seems to be a significant contributing factor on how the markets behave, certainly inplay. I've no opinion on pre-off.
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jimibt
Posts: 2721
Joined: Mon Nov 30, 2015 6:42 pm

Euler wrote:
Wed Jan 15, 2020 9:38 am
.... It seems to be a significant contributing factor on how the markets behave, certainly inplay. I've no opinion on pre-off.
that, tbh, is the crux of my intrigue!! determine the behavious (IP) of the odds and you have a better chance of comprehending (via automation) what's actually happening on course...

will monitor this thread for further nuggets...
Atho55
Posts: 405
Joined: Tue Oct 06, 2015 1:37 pm

Here is a bit of detail from a 11 months of BF Promo data re Megarain`s observations about Windsor, Uttoxeter and Leicester.

If you collate the info to look at the Wins and Losses by BSP Rank like this
Win or Lose Count.jpg
It them becomes relatively easy to convert these to a % like this
Win or Lose %.jpg

If you take the Average of the Column %`s you have something to measure your course in question against. Is it greater or less than the Average Win or Lose % for that specific Rank

Leics Uttox Wind %.jpg

So comparing our 3 courses to the Average looks to indicate that Rank1 does not win more than the Average % win rate for all courses.

However, these %`s are in a constant state of flux depending on daily results so any other time past they could have been greater than the average.


The conditional formatting is designed to point you towards the Bet strategy to use for that Rank at that course.

Does it work, sometimes fantastic, other times horror show so use with caution. Will be out of date tomorrow as well.
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