General Accepted Observations: Races, Horses and Tracks

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BigJ
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Hi

I'm looking for a list of general observations when it come to horses , race types and tracks. Often the things commentators say pre-race for e.g. example over exposed horses don't run as well towards the latter part of the season.

I'm sure there isn't a list on the forum but if there is please point me in the right direction.

If not then It would be great to get a list on this thread from the more experienced people willing to share.

Thanks in advance

Jordan
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megarain
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This list could be endless .. but, v v useful.

From experience, I know a few things.

Hardest tracks, for bookies to win at (meaning, favs/gambles, win a LOT)

Windsor
Uttoxeter
Leicester

//

The art of paddock analysis has largely been lost. If u can accurately assess an un-raced animals fitness, u can make a living wage.
BigJ
Posts: 118
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megarain wrote:
Sat Jul 08, 2017 9:30 am
This list could be endless .. but, v v useful.

From experience, I know a few things.

Hardest tracks, for bookies to win at (meaning, favs/gambles, win a LOT)

Windsor
Uttoxeter
Leicester

//

The art of paddock analysis has largely been lost. If u can accurately assess an un-raced animals fitness, u can make a living wage.
Thanks
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megarain
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1st 4 races at Leicester .. 1st 4 favs .. pisshole.
BigJ
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megarain wrote:
Sat Jul 08, 2017 3:10 pm
1st 4 races at Leicester .. 1st 4 favs .. pisshole.
Lovely...can't say I was on them but nice all the same :)
invisiblelayer
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megarain wrote:
Sat Jul 08, 2017 9:30 am
This list could be endless .. but, v v useful.

From experience, I know a few things.

Hardest tracks, for bookies to win at (meaning, favs/gambles, win a LOT)

Windsor
Uttoxeter
Leicester

//

The art of paddock analysis has largely been lost. If u can accurately assess an un-raced animals fitness, u can make a living wage.
Would love the racing channels to focus on the paddock pre race, rather than having to listen to pundits like Mappletoft droning on. So much gets missed at your average run of mill meetings. I'm certainly no paddock judge but you miss so much if your just tuned into ATR compared to being there
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jimibt
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megarain wrote:
Sat Jul 08, 2017 3:10 pm
1st 4 races at Leicester .. 1st 4 favs .. pisshole.
i know it's very uncool to necro-post but i stumbled on this old post when looking for something else and it sparked a question i'd been meaning to ask for a long time.

the OP here asks about metrics for race types, tracks etc and it is acknowledged that it would be useful to have a LIST of sorts that identified peculiarities that exist around certain tracks, race types etc. Mega, you yourself came back with a list of 3 courses that irritate the hell out of bookies, due to the high prevelance of faves winnning on them.

would love to see a more exhaustive list along those lines as i really think a resource of this sort would be useful to both novice traders/bettors as well as the seasoned players...

looking fwd to the avalanche :D
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Euler
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I spent a couple of years looking at course purely from the in-play perspective. It dawned on me that most courses in the UK are radically different and run that way. The undulating course at Chepstow runs, nothing like the straight mile at Ascot and the downhill finish at Goodwood is also radically different.

But nowhere can I see where anybody else has delved this deep. It seems to be a significant contributing factor on how the markets behave, certainly inplay. I've no opinion on pre-off.
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jimibt
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Euler wrote:
Wed Jan 15, 2020 9:38 am
.... It seems to be a significant contributing factor on how the markets behave, certainly inplay. I've no opinion on pre-off.
that, tbh, is the crux of my intrigue!! determine the behavious (IP) of the odds and you have a better chance of comprehending (via automation) what's actually happening on course...

will monitor this thread for further nuggets...
Atho55
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Here is a bit of detail from a 11 months of BF Promo data re Megarain`s observations about Windsor, Uttoxeter and Leicester.

If you collate the info to look at the Wins and Losses by BSP Rank like this
Win or Lose Count.jpg
It them becomes relatively easy to convert these to a % like this
Win or Lose %.jpg

If you take the Average of the Column %`s you have something to measure your course in question against. Is it greater or less than the Average Win or Lose % for that specific Rank

Leics Uttox Wind %.jpg

So comparing our 3 courses to the Average looks to indicate that Rank1 does not win more than the Average % win rate for all courses.

However, these %`s are in a constant state of flux depending on daily results so any other time past they could have been greater than the average.


The conditional formatting is designed to point you towards the Bet strategy to use for that Rank at that course.

Does it work, sometimes fantastic, other times horror show so use with caution. Will be out of date tomorrow as well.
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wearthefoxhat
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Using the good ole Adrian Massey Website (yes still going strong)

All Weather races: Handicaps; Clear and Jt favourites records UK&Ire (4 Years from 2016 - 2019 inclusive)

AWRHcaps.GIF

So racetype and course covered, with AWR, the surface/draw is gonna play a factor. Mostly, apart from a couple of bends, they act like a greyhound track and so some other hypothesis can be made specific to each track. - ie: Trainers that specialise, poor quality horses taking their turn to win, age of horse.

Gambles do occur, so market moves are important to observe.

Then a decision to back or lay comes into it too.
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jimibt
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wearthefoxhat wrote:
Wed Jan 15, 2020 7:40 pm
...Then a decision to back or lay comes into it too.
tbh, this was obscurely the rationale for my raising this thread back up. Rather than a speculative *why or how*, i was thinking, *wouldn't it be nice if there were some very broad but hard facts that governed each course*.

The idea behind it being that one could then apply their individual logic layers on top of each characteristic (of the course). The end game here isn't to present a definitive guide that says *always back the fave in Windsor*... it's more about, *hmmm - based on this course, I can really see x,y but not z happening here*.

anyway, a lad can dream :D
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Euler
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If you can identify value pre-off, trading in-play effectively multiples that return and vice versa.
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jimibt
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Euler wrote:
Wed Jan 15, 2020 8:14 pm
If you can identify value pre-off, trading in-play effectively multiples that return and vice versa.
Veering off to the left... I have done some work (and still do) with a lovely couple from Kent who visit the parade/paddocks (pre race) as assess the fitness and thus the real odds of the runners in a broad spectrum of races (last week, they were in Newcastle for the 2 days and made spectacular gains based on their specialist knowledge). They no doubt literally also take into account the course (and the finish in particular) when re calibrating the *real* odds.

We've developed an opinionated formula that spits out the odds for such races and bets are placed against those where the variance between the BF odds and the *real* odds breach a threshold. It is spectacular to see it in action!!

So many cats to be skinned!
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gptuk
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BigJ wrote:
Sat Jul 08, 2017 9:44 am
megarain wrote:
Sat Jul 08, 2017 9:30 am
This list could be endless .. but, v v useful.

From experience, I know a few things.

Hardest tracks, for bookies to win at (meaning, favs/gambles, win a LOT)

Windsor
Uttoxeter
Leicester

//

The art of paddock analysis has largely been lost. If u can accurately assess an un-raced animals fitness, u can make a living wage.
Thanks
Conversley does the list have tracks where favs have a poor record ?
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