Lay Trading High Price UK Horses

Learn sports betting strategies and discuss key factors to consider when placing a bet.
aidenrn810
Posts: 68
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 12:10 pm

for screenshot see twitter @slowandsteadyp1

Controlled activity today with nothing left at risk for in-play at race start.....even recovered from the first race where I got involved much earlier than my usual 5 to 10 minutes.....something to watch out for in the future....

UP 22.56 today
TipTopTrader
Posts: 462
Joined: Fri Feb 16, 2018 8:29 pm

That was a nice come back.

It was good to see you stuck to your plan, and didn't take the first bad loss in play.

I find the hardest part is sticking to game plan, especially after some annoying losses, that where winners that turned into losers.

But if you can stick to the rules than your already ahead of a lot of traders.
aidenrn810
Posts: 68
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 12:10 pm

for screenshot see twitter @slowandsteadyp1

UP 45.19 today - best return of the week.

Plus, not all massive high prices so perhaps as well as becoming more controlled (only 2 went in-play for 2 to 3 seconds max which were instantly matched - lucky....) I also tried trading some other much lower prices where I started to predict and read the swings as well......

.....tiny steps and "slowandsteady".

I'll put a golf update on my twitter feed late night / tomorrow as the cut after Round 2 occurs
&
also I'll be selecting the football correct scores to consider for the weekend. Will steer clear of Derby v Cardiff though as that looks to have goals in it to me.
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Dallas
Posts: 22671
Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:57 pm
Location: Working From Home

aidenrn810 wrote:
Fri Sep 13, 2019 6:28 pm
for screenshot see twitter @slowandsteadyp1

UP 45.19 today - best return of the week.

Plus, not all massive high prices so perhaps as well as becoming more controlled (only 2 went in-play for 2 to 3 seconds max which were instantly matched - lucky....) I also tried trading some other much lower prices where I started to predict and read the swings as well......

.....tiny steps and "slowandsteady".

I'll put a golf update on my twitter feed late night / tomorrow as the cut after Round 2 occurs
&
also I'll be selecting the football correct scores to consider for the weekend. Will steer clear of Derby v Cardiff though as that looks to have goals in it to me.

Just to let you know you can attach screenshots to your forum posts, that would probably make it easier for people to see.
To do that just below the text box where you type your message there is an attachment tab you can use to upload them.
aidenrn810
Posts: 68
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 12:10 pm

Thanks Dallas I will try and remember to do that in future. Still getting up to speed on this forum.
aidenrn810
Posts: 68
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 12:10 pm

@slowandsteadyp1 (for screenshots see twitter)

HORSE RACING LAYS

14th Sep results : only very limited time yesterday for horses, but still heading in the right direction......UP 3.95

2 more FOOTBALL Lay Score Wins yesterday

Liv v New : UP £13.68
&
Barc v Valencia : UP £21.83

TOTAL for 3 out of 3 --- UP £46.72
(9.3% ROI with a £500 bank)

GOLF

Looking good at the Greenbrier going in to the final round......

GOOD, GOOD, GOOD, so far..................
aidenrn810
Posts: 68
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 12:10 pm

@slowandsteadyp1 (for screenshots see twitter)

15th Sep results : again limited time today (and will be for the first half of the week also) for horses, but still heading in the right direction......UP 13.82
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

aidenrn810 wrote:
Sun Sep 15, 2019 8:45 am
TOTAL for 3 out of 3 --- UP £46.72
(9.3% ROI with a £500 bank)
Just an fyi, you measure your RoI against turnover* rather than your bank. The size of the bank skews it, you might have 10 grand in there and make £10 on a £100 trade. If you did that would be 10% RoI not 0.1% as you'd measure it.

Doing well tho.

*Different people measure it in different ways. I use the sum of back stakes plus the sum of lay liabilities but that could be thought of as double accounting. £100 back and £100 lay on the same market should probably be £100 turnover.
aidenrn810
Posts: 68
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 12:10 pm

If rather than my incorrect word of bank, it was Liability, as all 3 groups of correct score bets have had a circa £500 liability (which just happens to be my bank as well for this bet type!!!!) would the ROI that I have quoted be correct?

Or should it be calculated or written down in a different way?

P.S. No. 4 bet is currently doing well with AC Milan......hooray
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Derek27
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Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Personally, I don't think using turnover to calculate ROI is very accurate or meaningful, as many scratch trades and very high stake/low-risk trades would drag the figure down. Perhaps profit over maximum true exposure would be more meaningful?
JTEDL
Posts: 536
Joined: Wed Aug 23, 2017 2:21 pm

If just a straight lay bet or bets then I see ROI as percentage profit from liability in that one market, so just using round numbers similar to the bets posted on CS market on the Liverpool v Newcastle match:

£500 liability in CS market to make £14 is 2.8% ROI

Just make sure you got a plan when one of your target lay scores is the current score or 1 goal away on 70+mins, because you'll have a big decision to make.....
aidenrn810
Posts: 68
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 12:10 pm

Thanks JTEDL. I monitor when 1 or 2 goals away depending on the correct score value in mind and minutes to go in the game, and then as you say I have some options to limit liabilities and get out before running the risk of a big blow out loss....

Ok, so for No. 4 which has won tonight - hooray - the winnings were £13.40 after 5% BF commission - with a liability of £489.90.

How is best and right to portray this?

13.4 / 489.90 = 2.74%
or
14.1 / 489.90 = 2.88%

And then to add it to the other 3 previous winners do I just add 4 values together - and what to call it? ROI?

Thanks
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Derek27 wrote:
Sun Sep 15, 2019 9:18 pm
Personally, I don't think using turnover to calculate ROI is very accurate or meaningful, as many scratch trades and very high stake/low-risk trades would drag the figure down.

You're right. And tbf I only see it cos I had it on my results spreadsheet and it's still there. It's pretty meaningless, unless you can find a use for it. And if you've got a use for it then you'd use a more appropriate calc.
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

aidenrn810 wrote:
Sun Sep 15, 2019 10:11 pm
How is best and right to portray this?

13.4 / 489.90 = 2.74%
or
14.1 / 489.90 = 2.88%
They're both 'right'. One is net and one is gross.
Return on investment or return on stake is a comparative number not an absolute. It might give you an idea of how you're progressing but it'll only be relevant to you. Other people trading in other ways will have very different figures and their own way of doing it, if they do it at all.

As an example I've got a strategy with an RoI (bet stakes + lay liabilities) that's 0.009%. Is it worse than yours? I'd guess not because it trades over 900 individual dogs and horses a day on average, not a handful a week.

The only number that matters imo is a rolling 3month average of your withdrawals. You can't pay your gas bill with an impressive RoI.
aidenrn810
Posts: 68
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 12:10 pm

UP another 23.59 today on the Horses. (screenshoot @slowandsteadyp1)

Inter Milan & Slavia Praque Lay Correct Score just done for the early kick-off Champions League game. Lay'ed 0-3, 3-3 & Any Other Away Win.
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