Lay Trading High Price UK Horses

Learn sports betting strategies and discuss key factors to consider when placing a bet.
spreadbetting
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Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

Looking at your twitter feed I see you got stung on the 10th for £450 considering you're making around £2 a race surely that loss should be enough to persuade you not to let things go inrunning?

All credit to you for not chasing back those losses with higher stakes though, so you've obviously got the discipline side of things covered. Not sure your golf system of laying the 100+ outsiders is wise either as golf regularly throws up large price winners as the fields are so large and it can be a bit of a lottery.
TipTopTrader
Posts: 462
Joined: Fri Feb 16, 2018 8:29 pm

As long as you understand all the biggest and most profitable prerace traders don't have knowledge of the horses, just the markets and how they trade.They don't know or care if the horse is going to win or lose.
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Derek27
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Location: UK

Perhaps a bit more detailed research is required rather than off the cuff, lay this at 50, lay that at 100, ideas?
aidenrn810
Posts: 68
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 12:10 pm

@spreadbetting --- the golf is more calculated and if you read the short tweet fully it is not based on randomness. Certainly Marc Leishman & Cameron Smith do not fall in to 100+ pot lucks, but whilst I am putting up that labaility on these 2 then I may as well capitalise and talk also small amounts of outsiders that are just out of form, journeymen and never will win.......
aidenrn810
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*(correction) - stupidly said never will win ::: highly highly unlikely to win.
spreadbetting
Posts: 3140
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

Fair enough your pnl at the end of month will tell you if you're on the right track but it's a risky game putting effort into choosing some outsiders by 'form' then lumping the rest in simply because of their price.
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Derek27
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Location: UK

Here's an idea. Carry out an honest assessment of the percentage of trades you expect to win. For example, if you're laying at 100, what percentage you expect to get beaten?

If you're cutting your losses at a certain price, you'd need to factor that into the calculation with your losses multiplied by the estimated percentage. Calculate the ratio between your profit and risk taken.
bobsbetter
Posts: 14
Joined: Mon Jun 25, 2018 5:15 pm

sorry guys this is not a reply to anything,just a different idea,well sort of

what i do is lay the 0-0 score line on certain games but it is world wide
i scout through all the leagues on livescores, look at the u/o stats for the home team pick out all the teams that have an average of 3plus,then check out the odds for u/o in bet365 by clicking on the fixture in the middle if the odds are 1.05 or under thats my pick,ther can be quite a few over the weekend try it out this week let me know

cheers bob
aidenrn810
Posts: 68
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 12:10 pm

@spreadbetting

All my golf lays assess form, course previous and rankings even those with +100 odds.

These two factors for me are so strong to show a marked difference against other golfers with also very high odds in some cases.

@Derek27

I don't follow the calculation and ratio value that you are suggesting. An example of what you mean would help.....

Thanks
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Derek27
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Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

bobsbetter wrote:
Thu Sep 12, 2019 6:01 pm
sorry guys this is not a reply to anything,just a different idea,well sort of

what i do is lay the 0-0 score line on certain games but it is world wide
i scout through all the leagues on livescores, look at the u/o stats for the home team pick out all the teams that have an average of 3plus,then check out the odds for u/o in bet365 by clicking on the fixture in the middle if the odds are 1.05 or under thats my pick,ther can be quite a few over the weekend try it out this week let me know

cheers bob
Laying the 0-0 draw is exactly the same as backing under 0.5 goals, and with cross-matching across markets you should get a similar price. The problem I see is that the likelihood of a goal being scored is reflected on the 1.05 price (or laying at 20).
aidenrn810
Posts: 68
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 12:10 pm

for screenshot see twitter @slowandsteadyp1

Controlled activity today with nothing left at risk for in-play at race start.....even recovered from the first race where I got involved much earlier than my usual 5 to 10 minutes.....something to watch out for in the future....

UP 22.56 today
TipTopTrader
Posts: 462
Joined: Fri Feb 16, 2018 8:29 pm

That was a nice come back.

It was good to see you stuck to your plan, and didn't take the first bad loss in play.

I find the hardest part is sticking to game plan, especially after some annoying losses, that where winners that turned into losers.

But if you can stick to the rules than your already ahead of a lot of traders.
aidenrn810
Posts: 68
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 12:10 pm

for screenshot see twitter @slowandsteadyp1

UP 45.19 today - best return of the week.

Plus, not all massive high prices so perhaps as well as becoming more controlled (only 2 went in-play for 2 to 3 seconds max which were instantly matched - lucky....) I also tried trading some other much lower prices where I started to predict and read the swings as well......

.....tiny steps and "slowandsteady".

I'll put a golf update on my twitter feed late night / tomorrow as the cut after Round 2 occurs
&
also I'll be selecting the football correct scores to consider for the weekend. Will steer clear of Derby v Cardiff though as that looks to have goals in it to me.
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Dallas
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aidenrn810 wrote:
Fri Sep 13, 2019 6:28 pm
for screenshot see twitter @slowandsteadyp1

UP 45.19 today - best return of the week.

Plus, not all massive high prices so perhaps as well as becoming more controlled (only 2 went in-play for 2 to 3 seconds max which were instantly matched - lucky....) I also tried trading some other much lower prices where I started to predict and read the swings as well......

.....tiny steps and "slowandsteady".

I'll put a golf update on my twitter feed late night / tomorrow as the cut after Round 2 occurs
&
also I'll be selecting the football correct scores to consider for the weekend. Will steer clear of Derby v Cardiff though as that looks to have goals in it to me.

Just to let you know you can attach screenshots to your forum posts, that would probably make it easier for people to see.
To do that just below the text box where you type your message there is an attachment tab you can use to upload them.
aidenrn810
Posts: 68
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 12:10 pm

Thanks Dallas I will try and remember to do that in future. Still getting up to speed on this forum.
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