Lay Trading High Price UK Horses

Learn sports betting strategies and discuss key factors to consider when placing a bet.
JTEDL
Posts: 536
Joined: Wed Aug 23, 2017 2:21 pm

If just a straight lay bet or bets then I see ROI as percentage profit from liability in that one market, so just using round numbers similar to the bets posted on CS market on the Liverpool v Newcastle match:

£500 liability in CS market to make £14 is 2.8% ROI

Just make sure you got a plan when one of your target lay scores is the current score or 1 goal away on 70+mins, because you'll have a big decision to make.....
aidenrn810
Posts: 68
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 12:10 pm

Thanks JTEDL. I monitor when 1 or 2 goals away depending on the correct score value in mind and minutes to go in the game, and then as you say I have some options to limit liabilities and get out before running the risk of a big blow out loss....

Ok, so for No. 4 which has won tonight - hooray - the winnings were £13.40 after 5% BF commission - with a liability of £489.90.

How is best and right to portray this?

13.4 / 489.90 = 2.74%
or
14.1 / 489.90 = 2.88%

And then to add it to the other 3 previous winners do I just add 4 values together - and what to call it? ROI?

Thanks
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Derek27 wrote:
Sun Sep 15, 2019 9:18 pm
Personally, I don't think using turnover to calculate ROI is very accurate or meaningful, as many scratch trades and very high stake/low-risk trades would drag the figure down.

You're right. And tbf I only see it cos I had it on my results spreadsheet and it's still there. It's pretty meaningless, unless you can find a use for it. And if you've got a use for it then you'd use a more appropriate calc.
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

aidenrn810 wrote:
Sun Sep 15, 2019 10:11 pm
How is best and right to portray this?

13.4 / 489.90 = 2.74%
or
14.1 / 489.90 = 2.88%
They're both 'right'. One is net and one is gross.
Return on investment or return on stake is a comparative number not an absolute. It might give you an idea of how you're progressing but it'll only be relevant to you. Other people trading in other ways will have very different figures and their own way of doing it, if they do it at all.

As an example I've got a strategy with an RoI (bet stakes + lay liabilities) that's 0.009%. Is it worse than yours? I'd guess not because it trades over 900 individual dogs and horses a day on average, not a handful a week.

The only number that matters imo is a rolling 3month average of your withdrawals. You can't pay your gas bill with an impressive RoI.
aidenrn810
Posts: 68
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 12:10 pm

UP another 23.59 today on the Horses. (screenshoot @slowandsteadyp1)

Inter Milan & Slavia Praque Lay Correct Score just done for the early kick-off Champions League game. Lay'ed 0-3, 3-3 & Any Other Away Win.
aidenrn810
Posts: 68
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 12:10 pm

RE: JTDEL comment

Just make sure you got a plan when one of your target lay scores is the current score or 1 goal away on 70+mins, because you'll have a big decision to make.....

.....well a plan was needed tonight in the Ath Madrid v Juve game which all looked good at 0-0 HT but started to concern me at 0-1, so a traded out the 0-3 just before it went to 0-2 and then continued to trade out the Any Away Win.....ultimately a small loss of just over a fiver but a bit of redding out is always better than a big loss....😁

@slowandsteadyp1 (screenshots to follow tomorrow)
aidenrn810
Posts: 68
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 12:10 pm

Ath Madrid v Juve (DOWN 5.97) & Man Utd v Astana (UP 12.25) screenshots now on Twitter

Overall Correct Score Position After 7 Games Since 10th Sept is UP 79.61 ---- with a circa £500 Liability used each game then ROI is 15.92%

A couple of days off the Horses due to other commitments but I will upload a screenshot of some limited invovlement today when finished.
aidenrn810
Posts: 68
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 12:10 pm

Today's horses screenshot is now on Twitter. UP 17.05 today

Since the start on 3rd Sept : overall DOWN 108.91 (dominated by the large -449 in-play disaster from the 10th Sept --->>> so consistently UP otherwise by 340.09 !!!!)

ROI -21.8% (utilising a circa £500 Liability)

I'll only update horses every few days now as the next 2 weeks are busy work wise, so my opportunities will be limited.....
TipTopTrader
Posts: 462
Joined: Fri Feb 16, 2018 8:29 pm

Yes you have been consistent. Only a matter of time and you will have a positive P&L.

You must be a natural, you started making steady gains from the get go.
aidenrn810
Posts: 68
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 12:10 pm

Great 2 days laying correct scores.

Even got an extra 2-3 lay in on the Lazio game, so in total for that game UP 17.86

ROI now at 31% - UP 154.99 (500 Liability used throughout)

Golf lays also won. UP 26.03. Total UP 62.05.

Golf ROI now 20% (300 Liability)

@slowandsteadyp1
aidenrn810
Posts: 68
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 12:10 pm

25th Sep update

LAY OF CORRECT SCORES : Total now UP 176.79 (500 Liability used throughout) so ROI is a very healthy +35%....

LAY OF HIGH PRICE UK HORSES : Overall now DOWN 79.14......….still going in the right direction......ROI -16%....

LAY OF Golf : ROI now +20% (300 Liability)

@slowandsteadyp1 on Twitter for screenshots
aidenrn810
Posts: 68
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 12:10 pm

after all 27th Sep activity

LAY OF CORRECT SCORES : TOTAL : UP 222.17 (500 Liability used throughout) so ROI is steadily increasing, now +44%

LAY OF HIGH PRICE UK HORSES : Overall now DOWN 4.29......….still going in the right direction......ROI -1%....

[no change] LAY OF Golf : ROI now +20% (300 Liability)

@slowandsteadyp1 on Twitter for screenshots
aidenrn810
Posts: 68
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 12:10 pm

1- month now completed (03/09 to 02/10 inclusive)

After 2 more correct score lays yesterday in the Genk & Liverpool games the total is now : UP 345.33. ROI +69% (Lucky I didn't go with 3-3 on the Liverpool game this time around.....)

A handful of successful horse lays yesterday moved me in to profit : UP 8.19. ROI +1.6%

GOLF : UP 66.08. ROI +22%

So a very good recovery after the large horse loss in my early days. Let's see what month 2 brings.

😀 @slowandsteadyp1
aidenrn810
Posts: 68
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 12:10 pm

It's been a while so here is an update after all 13th Oct activity :

LAY OF CORRECT SCORES : TOTAL : UP 650.20 (ROI +126%) (Continually increasing the liability used as my bank grows. Up to £750 liability now. This is accounted for in ROI calculation.) so ROI is steadily increasing, now +126%

LAY OF HIGH PRICE UK HORSES : Overall now total is UP 121.05 (ROI +24%)….still going in the right direction....

LAY OF Golf : Total now 93.88 (ROI +30%)

TOTAL OVERALL PROFIT IN CIRCA 6 WEEKS IS...…………….£865.13

@slowandsteadyp1 on Twitter for screenshots
westbamtrading
Posts: 197
Joined: Tue Oct 23, 2018 4:58 pm

95% of my trading is laying.

As I don't trade horses anymore, all I have to say is "Be very careful". I did go through various laying strategies 30's 40 even up to 100's, but in the end it simply lead to increasing my total lose, to which I've nearly cleared since stopping both pre-race and in-play.

Now I've found other sectors are more of a cash cow than I ever have done with trading horses. However, If you've got an edge I wish you all success, but to me it smacks of picking pennies up from the train track ... its extremely dangerous, especially when having to take a loss pre-race, then going into in-play hoping the horse will lose. I can't tell you how much I've lost doing that.

But again, if you're on the road to your second million, I wish you well :D
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