Football odds Decay - half time odds

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rencoetz
Posts: 92
Joined: Thu Aug 22, 2019 5:25 am

Does anybody know how the odds will move for a football match from start 0-0 => HT0-0 ?

I am looking to build a table so I can back test various strategies at 0-0

Thanks
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Dallas
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If you mean the CS 0-0 then a general rule is they will half, but soccer mystic can be used to see how prices will move due to both time decay and following a goal/s
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Kafkaesque
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Been a while since I did much with correct score markets, so might have changed, but to add one small thing to Dallas' general rule, then typically half yes, but often a greater chance of decreasing by a fair bit more than half, the bigger the 0-0 price is pre.
rencoetz
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So basically as a minimum I can work on the Fav start price say 1.5 will be at 2.0 if start 0-0 and 0-0 HT ?

Is is there any difference if the fav is home or away?

Does the underdog drift or shorten by half - I assume the underdog shorten and and the draw also shortens
?
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northbound
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From what I remember, Correct Score 0-0 odds tend to halve by around 30min and drop to around 1/3 of original price by HT if the score is still 0-0.

With regards to fav odds if 0-0 HT, it depends a lot on how the fav performed in the first half. From memory, the most dramatic movement in their odds happens in the middle of the second half if they still can't take the lead.
JTEDL
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northbound wrote:
Fri Nov 01, 2019 8:18 am
, Correct Score 0-0 odds tend to halve by around 30min and drop to around 1/3 of original price by HT if the score is still 0-0.
^this (most of the time)
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Andriy
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Since any draw inflation factors will cancel themselves out when applying Poisson to the 0-0 at T=0 and T=45, assuming perfect decay you can make a very accurate calculation of 0-0 at T=45 given the 0-0 at T=0. You just need to know the goals split between 1st and 2nd halves, i use 44% and 56% as a default, so:

CS 0-0 T=45 = e^(-Ln(1/(CS 0-0 T=0))*0.56)

Then, for example, if 0-0 is 12 at the start, it will ' theoretically' be 4.02 at half time.

10 ... 3.63
14 ... 4.38

The one-third estimate works well around these prices but can edge up to 1/4 or 1/5 as goal expectation increases and the initial 0-0 price goes above 20.

Edit: just seen that OP wants change in match odds if still 0-0 at HT, so above probably not much use.
Last edited by Andriy on Fri Nov 01, 2019 3:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
rik
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have a look at the first half goals market and divide full time correct score odds by that for an estimate, if that wasnt generally accurate, you could arb it
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gstar1975
Posts: 615
Joined: Thu Nov 24, 2011 11:59 am

rencoetz wrote:
Thu Oct 31, 2019 11:40 pm
Does anybody know how the odds will move for a football match from start 0-0 => HT0-0 ?

I am looking to build a table so I can back test various strategies at 0-0

Thanks
Is there a matrix/spreadsheet where you can type in the score and the odds for Half Time will be shown? Other than Soccer Mystic as you need to type in the scores each time to get this information, it would be quicker to have a matrix with all the out comes so you can cross reference quickly.
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ilovepizza82
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Andriy wrote:
Fri Nov 01, 2019 1:32 pm
Since any draw inflation factors will cancel themselves out when applying Poisson to the 0-0 at T=0 and T=45, assuming perfect decay you can make a very accurate calculation of 0-0 at T=45 given the 0-0 at T=0. You just need to know the goals split between 1st and 2nd halves, i use 44% and 56% as a default, so:

CS 0-0 T=45 = e^(-Ln(1/(CS 0-0 T=0))*0.56)

Then, for example, if 0-0 is 12 at the start, it will ' theoretically' be 4.02 at half time.

10 ... 3.63
14 ... 4.38

The one-third estimate works well around these prices but can edge up to 1/4 or 1/5 as goal expectation increases and the initial 0-0 price goes above 20.

Edit: just seen that OP wants change in match odds if still 0-0 at HT, so above probably not much use.
Hi there,
Could you explain what certain things stand for:
1) e^
2) Ln

Could you give an example of the use of the formula ? (I mean practical example with odds and everything)
CallumPerry
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Google Logarithms. E = 2.7182818284590452353602874713527. Peter invented it :ugeek:
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