Newbies Trading in the Dark

Learn sports betting strategies and discuss key factors to consider when placing a bet.
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spreadbetting
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TraderFred wrote:
Mon Jul 20, 2020 7:09 am


I guess the only comparison you can truly make is with yourself, how much you’re making, how long it is taking out of your life, and how much you enjoy it.
I'd have to agree, it'd be nice to know where we ranked against others but realistically all you can strive to be is the most efficient version of yourself.
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firlandsfarm
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Guys, guys, please … this is getting overcomplicated … all I'm after is if you were doing £2 trades what would you think is a reasonable average return per race. You wouldn't say £100! You wouldn't be happy with 1p.! There must be an amount around which you would say "Yeah, I'm happy with my performance, averaged X per race". How much is "X"?
CallumPerry
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Why don't you think about it in amount of ticks instead?

Like others have said, comparing a trade with 1x £2 to 10x £2 is like comparing apples and oranges when it comes to generalising it in a formula. I think we all agree it is complex, traders measure their returns in different ways so wouldn't asking how many ticks per market kind of accompany everything?

Unfortunately, I foresee another complex question here. How many ticks would you expect to make per market = depends on how much 'value' I see to be taken. Again, interpreted differently by many traders.
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firlandsfarm
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CallumPerry wrote:
Mon Jul 20, 2020 3:42 pm
Why don't you think about it in amount of ticks instead?

Like others have said, comparing a trade with 1x £2 to 10x £2 is like comparing apples and oranges when it comes to generalising it in a formula. I think we all agree it is complex, traders measure their returns in different ways so wouldn't asking how many ticks per market kind of accompany everything?

Unfortunately, I foresee another complex question here. How many ticks would you expect to make per market = depends on how much 'value' I see to be taken. Again, interpreted differently by many traders.
Hi Callum, yes, ticks would be a similar comparison but then you bring in another variable, tick size! :) My main activity is System/BOT based but I'm having a go at trying to manual trade with £2 bets but like any newbie to active trading I have no idea if the school report would say "could do better". To average 40p or 60p or so per race sounds pathetic but I don't know if 20% or 30% of stake is a reasonable return or if I should look to do better. At £2 stakes the question of varying the stake with opportunity and risk doesn't come into it.
CallumPerry
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That would be an interesting question to ask, how many ticks could you expect at various levels. I'm sure Peter and others would have data on how wide the tick ranges are at various levels up and down the ladder; I do not have the answer.

I think, at the very least, you have found how uncertain of an area it is. Many will suggest 'feeling' what is right for yourself because there's not really a simple metric. You may find something that encapsulates what you're seeking but what you do find may be criticised. You just need to find what works for you. Sorry for a crap conclusion on my end :lol:
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ruthlessimon
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firlandsfarm wrote:
Mon Jul 20, 2020 3:30 pm
There must be an amount around which you would say "Yeah, I'm happy with my performance".
If you're >£0 after 250 markets, pat yourself on the back, you're in the top 0.05%. Outrageously high achievement imho, who cares what the stake/RoS is

Just for comparison, the pass rate to get into Mensa is 2% (x4 easier than Pc1.. apparently)
spreadbetting
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firlandsfarm wrote:
Mon Jul 20, 2020 9:47 pm
To average 40p or 60p or so per race sounds pathetic but I don't know if 20% or 30% of stake is a reasonable return or if I should look to do better. At £2 stakes the question of varying the stake with opportunity and risk doesn't come into it.
Probably at least 200 races a week so your pathetic 60p overall average ends up at £120, probably more than the dole and only playing to £2. Pump it up to a tenner and you'd be on £600 a week tax free, probably more than the average weekly wage, all for £10 stakes.

Considering you say you're only just starting manual trading I think you might need to relax your targets somewhat. Any strategies, and targets, you have with £2 stakes should be the same ones you'll use when scaled up or it'll be a pointless exercise.
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ShaunWhite
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ruthlessimon wrote:
Mon Jul 20, 2020 10:40 pm
If you're >£0 after 250 markets, pat yourself on the back, you're in the top 0.05%. Outrageously high achievement imho, who cares what the stake/RoS is

Just for comparison, the pass rate to get into Mensa is 2% (x4 easier than Pc1.. apparently)
It's 5% who pay pc1 I think not 0.05%. And 2%/4 is 0.5%. You've bugged out and need a reboot.
rik
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ruthlessimon wrote:
Mon Jul 20, 2020 10:40 pm
firlandsfarm wrote:
Mon Jul 20, 2020 3:30 pm
There must be an amount around which you would say "Yeah, I'm happy with my performance".
If you're >£0 after 250 markets, pat yourself on the back, you're in the top 0.05%. Outrageously high achievement imho, who cares what the stake/RoS is

Just for comparison, the pass rate to get into Mensa is 2% (x4 easier than Pc1.. apparently)
0.05% in profit after 250 markets? where your getting those stats from :D
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ShaunWhite
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I'll try and answer your question from gut feel. If I was putting £100 down I'd be pretty happy with £2 a race, £50 a day or £1500 a month. Min wage. I don't do it myself so it's just a feeling. I think that would be the general magnitude anyway.

Like you say though min stakes has its own problems because you can't trade in a natural fluid way, ie adding and reducing, putting in small speculative offers a few ticks away, taking some profit or loss and keeping the rest in for a while etc etc.

This is why I don't think there even is an average stake, because your position varies..... But I agree it would be good to know if people's presets were 10, 20, 50, 100 or 100, 200, 500, 1000
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ruthlessimon
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Tue Jul 21, 2020 12:02 am
It's 5% who pay pc1
rik wrote:
Tue Jul 21, 2020 12:10 am
0.05% in profit after 250 markets? where your getting those stats from :D
My bad yeah bit of a brain fart there, meant 0.5% >£0 after 250. This is where I got that fig (https://www.betfair.com/aboutUs/Betfair ... /#charges6).

Tbh though I agree, 5% does sound like a more realistic estimate in 2020 (I dunno when the above link was last updated).
rik
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It says less than 0.5% pay any sort of premium charges so not just conditions of 250markets but other conditions met as well, to use up your allowance reckon most account would be more than 10k in profit before paying any
I guess it counts people opening an account placing a couple bets and never bet on betfair again though, i would estimate from regular active costumers the consistantly profitable ones should be higher than 0,5%
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ShaunWhite
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There'll be fewer profitable straight backers paying PC than profitable traders, but they'll be no more profitable by avoiding it.

½% paying PC out of 5% actively profitable might be saying that 1 in 10 who are actively profitable are trading, the rest are punting?

Incidentally I'm profitable but don't pay PC because my lifetime comm/gross ratio is well over 20%, and should remain that way as I pay approx 25-28% comm/gross daily. But obviously being over 20% isn't an advantage compared with paying 20% max via PC if your lifetime ratio is <20%
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firlandsfarm
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CallumPerry wrote:
Mon Jul 20, 2020 10:19 pm
Sorry for a crap conclusion on my end :lol:
Nowt wrong with the conclusion Callum, the responses of all have been interesting and (some) amusing … my conclusion is that there is no monitoring of what is possibly the simplest and most basic measurement available. If my average stake is £X and I make a profit of £Y then if my average stake rises to £2X (maybe because I was feeling confident and happy with my past profits) but my profit only increased to £1.50Y I would want to investigate why it isn't £2Y. It's a statistic I intend to monitor going forward.
spreadbetting wrote:
Mon Jul 20, 2020 10:53 pm
Considering you say you're only just starting manual trading I think you might need to relax your targets somewhat.
SB, I am not looking at/for a target, just an indicator of what good traders achieve (I'm assuming most here who respond to such issues are good traders :) ). When George Graham managed the "1-0 to the Arsenal" team I suspect he wanted to know what the average goals the other teams were scoring but he didn't set that as a target for Arsenal to score. A "nice to know" doth not a target make! :)
ruthlessimon wrote:
Mon Jul 20, 2020 10:40 pm
If you're >£0 after 250 markets, pat yourself on the back, you're in the top 0.05%. Outrageously high achievement imho, who cares what the stake/RoS is
I would care Ruthless for the reasons I gave Callum above.
ShaunWhite wrote:
Tue Jul 21, 2020 12:16 am
I'll try and answer your question from gut feel. If I was putting £100 down I'd be pretty happy with £2 a race, £50 a day or £1500 a month. Min wage. I don't do it myself so it's just a feeling. I think that would be the general magnitude anyway.

Like you say though min stakes has its own problems because you can't trade in a natural fluid way, ie adding and reducing, putting in small speculative offers a few ticks away, taking some profit or loss and keeping the rest in for a while etc etc.

This is why I don't think there even is an average stake, because your position varies..... But I agree it would be good to know if people's presets were 10, 20, 50, 100 or 100, 200, 500, 1000
I sense a whiff of understanding … thank you Shaun. :) But I must correct you (and you know this) … there is always an average of anything! :)
rik
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for me smaller default stakes and multiclicking is the faster more intuitive way of putting an appropriate stake especially if you do in running and have to decide quickly on a good amount
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