Newbies Trading in the Dark

Learn sports betting strategies and discuss key factors to consider when placing a bet.
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PeterLe
Posts: 3715
Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 3:19 pm

People look and interpret things differently too.
This is a true story. I once worked in a design office (junior), and I was trying to get my head around the maclaurin series :-
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taylor_ser ... _functions
Heavy stuff (well it was for me)..
The guy I shared the office with had a Phd and was genuinely intelligent.
He took my pen off me and scribbled on an A4 pad explaining what the series meant and how to apply it. I was like a rabbit in the headlights, I couldn't comprehend it.
A couple of hours later i saw him (unusually) with his head in his hands..I asked him what the problem was and he told me he was building a fence at home and was trying to work out how deep to dig the holes for the posts/concrete. After discussing how high the fence would be, I suggested "about "18 inches should do it". he said " How do you know that will be enough" I said "I just know' . he said " can you prove it", I said "No, but I know it will work"
He spent the next hour trying to work it out mathematically?!

Two people can be given the exact same scenario and take completely different paths. I told him exactly what to do but he didn't believe me.
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mugsgame
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Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 11:41 pm

Thats a good one Peter.
My nephew is Autistic. He is 14 and talks to about complex Physics and looks at me as if he thinks I am a 5 year old when it's obvious i haven't the slightest clue what he is talking about. But he was at my Mothers last Sunday crying because he couldn't butter a piece of toast properly.

We are just all wired up differently.

I am convinced that trading is just pattern recognition. How many times have we seen those puzzle type pictures that different people see different things in?
Online Trader
Posts: 211
Joined: Wed Apr 21, 2010 7:13 am

I think I have said this before to Steve..... IMHO he falls into the "freak of nature" category along with Peter... this is not an insult and is meant as a compliment :D

There are probably other on this Forum too that fall into that category.

I truly believe that there are only a very select few that can trade at the levels that these guys do and that all the coaching/training in the world may never get you to that level unless you have that "natural instinct".

Most footballers would like to be as good as Messi and Ronaldo but do you think that they could coach other players to be as good as them?
hgodden
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Joined: Thu Apr 16, 2009 2:13 pm

Some interesting posts here recently.

Funny to see the football analogy as I was about to post one of my own. I think it's true you may never be Messi or Ronaldo but many players with much less natural 'talent' have made great careers out of finding their own niches', think Makelele, Carragher etc. Vinny Jones made a succesful career in two seperate industries in which I'd say, to be kind to him, he had little to know exceptional talent whatsoever! Although of course, making the most out of what you have may be a talent in itself.

I think that some things do come naturally better to some that others though, especially when it comes to trading styles. In the same way it would be impossible to teach Messi to become a centre back, and most centre backs to become forwards, it may be impossible to teach most people to trade in ways that are unnatural to them. Of course there are the odd exception like Ruud Gullit.

PS Actually don't think Carragher, if you're anything like me it might put you off your lunch.
scalpy123
Posts: 6
Joined: Sat Nov 03, 2012 11:11 am

Hi James,
I like your post as it does show what you you need to consider when trading. I have a good knowledge of horse racing and only select certain "races" to trade.
But I still think that the Bet Angel team could be more helpful.We are using their software to get that "edge".
When the odds are moving down on a favourite quickly and if Bet Angel can be automated to place a BACK bet and then the lay bet one tick less (faster than we can do manually)surely it is not too much to ask for an example of this automation. Yes I\we could keep try ourselves and use the practice mode to see if it works but if it does not surely we should be able to ask for help.
I am not asking them to disclose their main strategies from their Master class tutorials but a little help goes a long way.
Keep on with your informative posts.
Learning something new every day.
Max.
LinusP
Posts: 1871
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2012 10:45 pm

scalpy123 wrote: But I still think that the Bet Angel team could be more helpful.We are using their software to get that "edge".
When the odds are moving down on a favourite quickly and if Bet Angel can be automated to place a BACK bet and then the lay bet one tick less (faster than we can do manually)surely it is not too much to ask for an example of this automation.
You have to be here to wind us all up.
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mugsgame
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Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 11:41 pm

I agree about the BA team being more helpful.
Got a new socket set from Halfords last week. The bastards wouldn't come over and fix my car. Well out of order
Iron
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Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

scalpy123 wrote:I like your post as it does show what you you need to consider when trading.
Hi Max

James's posts are thorough and helpful, and well worth studying.

One of the things I like about James is that he's not afraid to challenge widely held beliefs (such as the view that a tightening over-round is significant, or that WOM has predictive powers). I don't always agree with him, but it's interesting and potentially useful to be given an alternative perspective to the mainstream view.
scalpy123 wrote:I have a good knowledge of horse racing and only select certain "races" to trade.
But I still think that the Bet Angel team could be more helpful.
You have to bear in mind that trading is a zero sum game in which Peter is himself a participant, so he is limited in terms of how much knowledge he can give away without damaging his own edge. Also, he give precise 'when this happens, press this button' type instructions, the edge would disappear in an instant, and he'd be doing nobody any favours...

Jeff
Iron
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I'm not sure 'natural instinct' has anything to do with it.

An analogy. Mugs lost six stone over six months. I would guess 90% of people who resolved to lose weight at the New Year have already abandoned their diets (I'm about to restart mine! :lol: ). Similarly, with trading, making good trades is only half the battle.

Avoiding doing stupid stuff, especially when you're feeling sore at the market or at a loose end, is not easy. So basically, I would say that Mugs succeeds at trading for the same reason that he succeeded at dieting - because he is capable of sticking to a regime that involves doing boring stuff consistently well, in spite of inevitable setbacks.

Jeff
Online Trader wrote: I truly believe that there are only a very select few that can trade at the levels that these guys do and that all the coaching/training in the world may never get you to that level unless you have that "natural instinct".
Online Trader
Posts: 211
Joined: Wed Apr 21, 2010 7:13 am

Here what you are saying Jeff, but there has to be some "natural talent" involved and I maintain that only a few will EVER get to the levels of Mugs and Peter, no matter how hard they "stick to a regime that involves doing boring stuff consistently well, in spite of inevitable setbacks"
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Euler
Posts: 24700
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

I thought I'd chip in with a couple of thoughts.

When I first tried short term trading on financials I was completely and utterly useless. That's half the reason I ended up as a true investor than trader in financials. But trading short term on Betfair taught me the key elements of general short term trading. So I think it is perfectly possible to undergo a big shift in mindset and application. I used to swear that short term trading was a waste of time and was a zero sum game. But I'd happily apologise for all the rhetoric I chucked at traders who managed something I didn't think was possible.

Once you understand the trading process and mindset I think it's possible to use it as a general framework. But you have to learn it and it goes against a lot of instinct. But if I can do it from a standpoint of utter intransigence then I hold out hope for everybody.

It is possible to give people clear and specific commands to trade a net positive system. But curiously even that isn't good enough for people to execute it. People can see what to do and how to do, but it's the doing it that seems to be the problem. So there is an element of training and skill to execute.

I've got some great audio of me teaching somebody where you hear my criticising them for following my instructions but failing to do anything about it. I'll see if I can upload it at some point.
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mugsgame
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Think you're right Jeff. Plus having my mouth stitched up helped a lot!

Seriously though. I keep saying that the difference between success and failure in this game is very small details.
The other thing of course is practice. I got in at the start pretty much, got a bit lucky and developed my skill set. If you spend pretty much every day watching numbers spinning over on ladders and spreadsheets. Plus watching the behaviour the markets and what influences the way they change. How can you fail to understand them?

I would estimate upto now I have watched something like 100,000 horse races and associated markets. If that don't grasp it after that sort of exposure then you in trouble.
Iron
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Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

Why must there be?

Is it not simply possible that the 1% who apply themselves best happen to end up in the top 1% when it comes to profits?

Also, there may be an element of self-fulfilling prophesy going on. If you don't think you're capable of being as good as Mugs, chances are that you won't ever be...

Jeff
Online Trader wrote:Here what you are saying Jeff, but there has to be some "natural talent" involved
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Euler
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Location: Bet Angel HQ

duplicate
Last edited by Euler on Sat Mar 01, 2014 9:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Euler
Posts: 24700
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

Worth bringing this thread into this thread: -

viewtopic.php?f=36&t=4153
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