Newbies Trading in the Dark

Learn sports betting strategies and discuss key factors to consider when placing a bet.
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ruthlessimon
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Tue Jul 21, 2020 12:02 am
It's 5% who pay pc1
rik wrote:
Tue Jul 21, 2020 12:10 am
0.05% in profit after 250 markets? where your getting those stats from :D
My bad yeah bit of a brain fart there, meant 0.5% >£0 after 250. This is where I got that fig (https://www.betfair.com/aboutUs/Betfair ... /#charges6).

Tbh though I agree, 5% does sound like a more realistic estimate in 2020 (I dunno when the above link was last updated).
rik
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It says less than 0.5% pay any sort of premium charges so not just conditions of 250markets but other conditions met as well, to use up your allowance reckon most account would be more than 10k in profit before paying any
I guess it counts people opening an account placing a couple bets and never bet on betfair again though, i would estimate from regular active costumers the consistantly profitable ones should be higher than 0,5%
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ShaunWhite
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There'll be fewer profitable straight backers paying PC than profitable traders, but they'll be no more profitable by avoiding it.

½% paying PC out of 5% actively profitable might be saying that 1 in 10 who are actively profitable are trading, the rest are punting?

Incidentally I'm profitable but don't pay PC because my lifetime comm/gross ratio is well over 20%, and should remain that way as I pay approx 25-28% comm/gross daily. But obviously being over 20% isn't an advantage compared with paying 20% max via PC if your lifetime ratio is <20%
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firlandsfarm
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CallumPerry wrote:
Mon Jul 20, 2020 10:19 pm
Sorry for a crap conclusion on my end :lol:
Nowt wrong with the conclusion Callum, the responses of all have been interesting and (some) amusing … my conclusion is that there is no monitoring of what is possibly the simplest and most basic measurement available. If my average stake is £X and I make a profit of £Y then if my average stake rises to £2X (maybe because I was feeling confident and happy with my past profits) but my profit only increased to £1.50Y I would want to investigate why it isn't £2Y. It's a statistic I intend to monitor going forward.
spreadbetting wrote:
Mon Jul 20, 2020 10:53 pm
Considering you say you're only just starting manual trading I think you might need to relax your targets somewhat.
SB, I am not looking at/for a target, just an indicator of what good traders achieve (I'm assuming most here who respond to such issues are good traders :) ). When George Graham managed the "1-0 to the Arsenal" team I suspect he wanted to know what the average goals the other teams were scoring but he didn't set that as a target for Arsenal to score. A "nice to know" doth not a target make! :)
ruthlessimon wrote:
Mon Jul 20, 2020 10:40 pm
If you're >£0 after 250 markets, pat yourself on the back, you're in the top 0.05%. Outrageously high achievement imho, who cares what the stake/RoS is
I would care Ruthless for the reasons I gave Callum above.
ShaunWhite wrote:
Tue Jul 21, 2020 12:16 am
I'll try and answer your question from gut feel. If I was putting £100 down I'd be pretty happy with £2 a race, £50 a day or £1500 a month. Min wage. I don't do it myself so it's just a feeling. I think that would be the general magnitude anyway.

Like you say though min stakes has its own problems because you can't trade in a natural fluid way, ie adding and reducing, putting in small speculative offers a few ticks away, taking some profit or loss and keeping the rest in for a while etc etc.

This is why I don't think there even is an average stake, because your position varies..... But I agree it would be good to know if people's presets were 10, 20, 50, 100 or 100, 200, 500, 1000
I sense a whiff of understanding … thank you Shaun. :) But I must correct you (and you know this) … there is always an average of anything! :)
rik
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Location: London

for me smaller default stakes and multiclicking is the faster more intuitive way of putting an appropriate stake especially if you do in running and have to decide quickly on a good amount
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firlandsfarm
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rik wrote:
Tue Jul 21, 2020 7:13 am
for me smaller default stakes and multiclicking is the faster more intuitive way of putting an appropriate stake especially if you do in running and have to decide quickly on a good amount
As a matter of interest Rik do you 'up' your refresh time in-running to try and smooth out the ladder prices?
rik
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Location: London

firlandsfarm wrote:
Tue Jul 21, 2020 7:19 am
rik wrote:
Tue Jul 21, 2020 7:13 am
for me smaller default stakes and multiclicking is the faster more intuitive way of putting an appropriate stake especially if you do in running and have to decide quickly on a good amount
As a matter of interest Rik do you 'up' your refresh time in-running to try and smooth out the ladder prices?
always have it on 20ms no matter inrunnning or prerace
rik
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Tue Jul 21, 2020 12:16 am

This is why I don't think there even is an average stake, because your position varies..... But I agree it would be good to know if people's presets were 10, 20, 50, 100 or 100, 200, 500, 1000
why so few presets what if you feel ideal amount is 150 your going to stake 50% lower than you should?
i go in 5s from 30 to 70, 10s from 70 to 200
then buttons on the mouse for 1updown 5up and back to default so dont have to click anything on the screen
spreadbetting
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firlandsfarm wrote:
Tue Jul 21, 2020 6:49 am
SB, I am not looking at/for a target, just an indicator of what good traders achieve (I'm assuming most here who respond to such issues are good traders :) ). When George Graham managed the "1-0 to the Arsenal" team I suspect he wanted to know what the average goals the other teams were scoring but he didn't set that as a target for Arsenal to score. A "nice to know" doth not a target make! :)
You've been given plenty of answers, I just suspect you haven't been given the answer you want yet. What sort of prcentage would you consider acceptable, surely you must have a figure in mind?
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firlandsfarm
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spreadbetting wrote:
Tue Jul 21, 2020 11:47 am
You've been given plenty of answers, I just suspect you haven't been given the answer you want yet. What sort of prcentage would you consider acceptable, surely you must have a figure in mind?
Yes I've not been given the answer I want but that's not in the way people usually say that! I haven't been given the answer in the format I want (was hoping for), I have no predetermined value of that answer so have no 'want' in that area.

Nope, I have no figure in mind, I have no idea what others experience in that area. I don't believe in the novice telling the expert what's what. If I should try and answer your question I would go to Excel and enter =RANDBETWEEN(0,00) in a cell (where "00" is infinity) because that would be just as likely to be as accurate as me guessing.
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ShaunWhite
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rik wrote:
Tue Jul 21, 2020 7:27 am
ShaunWhite wrote:
Tue Jul 21, 2020 12:16 am

This is why I don't think there even is an average stake, because your position varies..... But I agree it would be good to know if people's presets were 10, 20, 50, 100 or 100, 200, 500, 1000
why so few presets what if you feel ideal amount is 150 your going to stake 50% lower than you should?
i go in 5s from 30 to 70, 10s from 70 to 200
then buttons on the mouse for 1updown 5up and back to default so dont have to click anything on the screen
It's was just an example of magnitude and not wanting to type a long list. I generally used to have smallish presets and hammer away on the mouse button if I wanted more on or be able to drop small offers in all over the place without changing stake much. Whatever suits though, and it's not like I was any good so probably best to do the exact opposite of what I did manually. :roll:
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