Newbies Trading in the Dark

Learn sports betting strategies and discuss key factors to consider when placing a bet.
Post Reply
Caerus
Posts: 16
Joined: Wed Nov 03, 2010 11:54 am

Hi James,

Very insightful post...

Can you explain the 5/6/7 period in the wom?

Thanks
James1st
Posts: 318
Joined: Thu Apr 16, 2009 10:28 am

Hi Caerus

The WOM plotted on a graph is a very erratic beast and difficult to make sense of to the untrained eye. For example in a strong downward move in odds, the WOM will move down with the odds, often overtaking them. However, the WOM will have reversed AND moved back to the top (say 85%+) BEFORE the odds have reached their lowest value and turned around..viz the WOM will show as increasing as the odds are still falling. This is a momentum oddity (about which I will write more at a later date).

In order to "see" the WOM in relation to odds movements, we need to slow down and smoothe the graphing using a moving average (averaging wom over the previous 5/6/ or 7 readings). Only then will you see just when the WOM is predictive and when it is lagging.
Exacta
Posts: 151
Joined: Wed Aug 25, 2010 2:57 pm

Why not just switch on the moving average? You are making it more complicated that it really is.
followthatcamel
Posts: 73
Joined: Thu Apr 16, 2009 12:54 am

Hi James, Happy New Year!!

I have always enjoyed reading your posts and found them to be very informed and thought stimulating. Still looking forward to your views on "momentum oddity" that you mention and was wondering if this is something you still plan to post?

Regards
Doug
James1st
Posts: 318
Joined: Thu Apr 16, 2009 10:28 am

Exacta wrote:Why not just switch on the moving average? You are making it more complicated that it really is.
Exacta. There are many settings for moving averages and equally many time frames. The default BA settings will not show what I explained.
followthatcamel wrote:Hi James, Happy New Year!!

I have always enjoyed reading your posts and found them to be very informed and thought stimulating. Still looking forward to your views on "momentum oddity" that you mention and was wondering if this is something you still plan to post?

Regards
Doug

Hi Doug.

Ages since I did a post in this thread, so the subject of "momentum" is as good as any to restart.

Momentum is a key advantage for trend traders and whilst scalpers seek to avoid periods of instability, trend traders pray for good momentum. It is all very well being able to recognise a trend and to jump on board but no trader likes his money languishing too long in the market, so trends that have good momentum are the home runs that trend traders need to survive. Like a crab, the trend trader spends a lot of time moving sideways ever ready to strike at the first opportunity. The less time a crab spends on open ground the less likely he is to be eaten alive.

In my last post I described the WOM as a momentum indicator and how plotting it can show you when it is leading or when it is lagging. For the most part the WOM (as recorded in BA and notwithstanding the abberations I previously mentioned) is a useful tool but knowing when to use it and how to use it is often contrary to its face promise. The “oddity” to which I referred in an earlier post is that the WOM can appear to be out of sync with price movement but remain fully in sync with price momentum (you may need to think about that for a moment). WOM is a combined expression of the market makers intent to move the market in a particular direction; it is not a measure of any move that has yet taken place nor is it a guarantee that any move will happen. WOM is in fact a much more useful as a tool in determining the end of a run rather than the start of one.

Graphically, momentum moves appear as acute angled as opposed to slow trends that will appear as obtuse. Momentum moves in a market are always good news since there is a very short time between entry and exit of a trade. It is never a good thing for any trader to hang about in the market being filled on only one side of his trade. One could argue that the ladder is just as useful in illustrating momentum when it flies off in one direction but then again, the rate of change in the ladder movements are subject to many variables eg refresh rate, other software running on your PC, personal observation etc. A picture presents a much clear view in my opinion.

Much like the WOM is another indicator I developed myself to help define momentum. For the purpose of this post I will call it the Doppler (google it) and its purpose is to measure price action over time and produce an expression that swings across a zero line. This marker is a much truer indication of the velocity of price swings and when used in combination with the WOM has proven to be a very valuable trading tool. Trend traders need to use a different set of tools than a scalper since their entries/exits must be clearly defined, measurable and reliable. Momentum indicators are important since they visibly show us just when the momentum is increasing or decreasing, allowing the trader to enter or exit his trade efficiently.

Just a short note to readers who find these posts too complex or too long.

Out there in the real world there are millions of words, books and videos written on the subject of trading since the 18th century. My concise summaries only scratch the surface of what real traders do but I hope in some small way my few words save a newbie a bob or two by making him think about what he is doing or is about to do.
followthatcamel
Posts: 73
Joined: Thu Apr 16, 2009 12:54 am

Hi James, thanks for sharing your thoughts; yet another post to stimulate the "little grey cells" * as Poirot would say.

* or in our case the the pink or blue cells!!

Regards
Doug
James1st
Posts: 318
Joined: Thu Apr 16, 2009 10:28 am

On reading a thread yesterday “Inplay trading .... Quitting tips please" I am tempted again to put pen to paper and adding this article to the current thread for Newbies.

As someone pointed out in the thread the psychological aspects of trading raise their ugly head from time to time and unless new traders learn how to handle them they are doomed to failure. It seems that one of the most common mistakes new (and some experienced) traders make is reacting badly to a losing series of trades in a race and going off the rails by attempting to recover that loss on the In-Play market.

Just imagine a futures trader losing £100k in the markets in the morning and then telling his boss that he was taking the afternoon off to visit the dog track to recover his losses. Absurd? Of course it is.

A circus high wire performer goes through a series of training exercises in which he learns the techniques that are safe and those that are not and in the process he is permitted the use of a safety net. However, once he has learned the ropes, his safety net is removed and he is thus compelled to perform only the safe routines that have been properly learnt and practised. Awareness of danger concentrates the mind in a way that no other emotion can. The mere fact that he is performing without a safety net ensures that he takes minimal risk whilst swinging 100 feet in the air.

The In-play market is the poor pre-race traders safety net and traders who rely on it are failing to properly learn their craft. There is no compunction for a trader to remain concentrated and diligent in his trading when he has a set of crutches by his side. Remove all the safety nets and ones trading takes on a brand new outlook; one that ensures that losses are not allowed to run and run whilst at the same time recognising that losing races are inevitable in the course of a days trading.

[Out of interest, anyone who has read Adam Heathecotes blog will not have failed to notice that he averages 4/5 losing races in a 21 day card]

Whether ones trading loss in this race is as the result of poor judgement, volatile markets, dodgy software, mad bombers, false money, ISP or power failures we all know that such losses are an inevitable consequences in the trading game. There are many good trades to compensate for those losses. I used to reward myself for every successful trade by indulging in a weakness of mine, eating a jellybean after every race where I made a profit. In a blinding flash of inspiration one night and being always concerned how I reacted to a losing race, I reversed the reward process and only allowed myself a jellybean when I had a losing race but only when I didn’t react badly to that loss. As a result, my trading improved many fold and another bonus was that I also lost a few pounds.

Several guys have already hit the nail on the head in their suggestion as to how to prevent yourself going in play. The solution is to remove all the safety nets for once and for all and expose yourself to the real dangers of pre-race trading.

I encourage pre-race traders to attach an Excel sheet to BA (whether you think you need one or not) where the sole function of the sheet is disbar any further bets by instructing the sheet to Globally Green up either at the off or In-play (or both). By removing the means to place an in-play bet, we eliminate temptation.

(Link to Peter Webbs tutorial) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T8wSGQ2zLrg&feature=fvw
Last edited by James1st on Fri Feb 18, 2011 1:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
oddstrader
Posts: 344
Joined: Fri Apr 16, 2010 4:55 pm
Location: Surrey

nice post James
Predicton
Posts: 281
Joined: Sun Sep 13, 2009 3:41 pm

Hi J,

a thoughtful and, thought provoking, post, as ever and chock full of good advice. I'm almost at a loss as to how to proceed from here (very useful word "almost" isn't it?)

I'll have another go, as I think that my point has got a little lost in translation.

I'll start from the premise that everybody has a tolerance level to pain (physical and emotional). Once that tolerance level is exceeded, they will do anything to stop the pain (a factor known and used extensively during torture). As a species, it's not our fault, it's a built in survival technique, there to prevent us doing things that will harm us, over and over again.

In trading terms it is exceeding that tolerance level, that makes people go "off the rails" (we've seen this, even with some of the full timers, as detailed on this forum) and I believe that it could happen to any one of us. The difference isn't that some of us develop a greater tolerance, or a more iron will, no, the difference is that, as we improve, we reach a level of capability which prevents us making sufficient mistakes to trigger the unbearable emotional pain (Mark Douglas has covered emotional pain in his books but from a slightly different angle).

What I was trying to point out, was, no matter how many times traders are told not to go in play, they simply wont be able to prevent themselves if their emotional tolerance level is breached and not to beat themselves up over it. The answer to not going in play is to become good enough to not trigger the unbearable pain, only then will they be able to exert the required control.

Well, that's my view, anyway,

cheers, P
User avatar
to75ne
Posts: 2311
Joined: Wed Apr 22, 2009 5:37 pm

Prediction

I can see the logic in what your saying but I think it is far more fundamental/deeper than a persons tolerance to pain (physical or mental).

I believe that it’s a far more older/primitive emotion involved mainly fear/greed which at its deepest level is possibly our oldest emotion and very different from the two emotions we normally refer to as greed and fear. The older emotion seems to be the same thing like two sides of the same coin, and is very different to what we understand as greed i.e., Im not hungry, im full up but im gonna eat that pie; or I don’t like what he is saying but hes a big lump, and he is well capable of kicking the crap out of me.

This older emotion is “located” in the oldest part/structure of our brain and is common the all mammals, birds, amphibians and reptiles. It is sometimes called the r complex or reptilian brain (according to the triune theory of the brain). Its function is to protect all your assets (food, water, offspring etc), and kicks in when you are under threat, giving you the highest probability of passing on your genes because that is the only reason life exists as far as it is concerned. There is no down connection from the later evolved higher brain structures where the conscience you/ego would seem to exist, only upward from the more primitive r complex. This is so that you don’t waste time thinking about things when the r complex detects a perceived threat to your assets, it’s a luxury you cant afford, its there to kick in fight or flight responses, not much else.

This as served very well since the first lizard arrived on the scene, and as served humans and their ancestors well over millions years right up to fairly recently when we started living in cities etc. but in the modern world as/can cause us problems.

When your trading and things go wrong and you go inplay by accident for instance, I believe your primitive brain is in control, no matter what you do you rational brain cant seem to do anything about it because it cant send a direct instruction to override the primitive brains function. You know its stupid, you know it will end in disaster, you can see it happening in front of your eyes, but your finger may as well be paralysed.

But your primitive brain is interpreting events as, im gonna loss some of my assets, might only be £2.31p but it does not understand its value, its purpose is to protect my assets at all times no matter what. It as no logic to rationalise things, your higher brain cant directly intervene, and risking £200 to save £2.31p as no meaning to it. As things get worse and you are now potentially gonna lose £185 trying to save a paltry £2.31, it perceives its gonna lose even more of its assets, and now there is no way your rational brain is going to take control . You/your rational brain is now suffering a bad internal conflict along the lines of “click the button for fecks sake” your feeling real bad, getting angry, preying/pleading to God to perform a minor miracle, even if your atheist, but still you do nothing.

Then you lose the lot and rot will truly set in.

Likewise you inadvertently go in play and your liability is £60, and the price goes down you can easily green out for £63.03p, you hesitate, giving time for your primitive brain to see the situation as a threat to your potential assets. Your rational brain can see if you hang a bit longer you can green up £15, a bit longer £70, and possibly £170 if it wins. All this as done as given total control to your primitive brain, which does not see a difference between potential profit and actual profit. All profit is your asset even if you don’t have any yet, as far as its concerned, there is no way your gonna green up and lose your assets. As above thing go pear shaped. Big internal conflict, curse the heavens etc.

I don’t know if you can learn to control your more primitive mind, reading about it, it would seem to be almost mission impossible, and I think we tend to take the wrong approach by concentrating solely on entry/exits points, looking for swings etc. I think we need to spend as much time if not more on learning about our own rational minds and training it not to allow or limiting the primitive minds ability to perceive threats and taking control.

Personally the only way I have found is by knowing what I intend to do before I trade to cut things short knowing how may ticks im willing to lose before I scratch, how many ticks before I green, how many ticks I will take before I red, what time im out of the market etc. ive just stuck to this to where im at the point where its become no more then a habit. By developing habits/reflexes to various situations I believe I give little or no time for my primitive brain to perceive a threat to my real or potential assets, and causeing me any gut wrenching internal conflicts.
Predicton
Posts: 281
Joined: Sun Sep 13, 2009 3:41 pm

Hi T,

I suppose that it boils down to whether or not you believe that the pain barrier/ fear, greed/ primitive brain response can be controlled by training, meditation, willpower or whatever. I believe that in the same way we're unable to leave our hand on a glass partition when a snake bites, or we're unable to not blink when heading a football, we're unable to avoid behaving irrationally in a trade, if it all becomes "too much for us to bear". I hope that you're correct and that this emotion can be controlled, I just have a nagging feeling that it can't, but who knows?

cheers, P
User avatar
to75ne
Posts: 2311
Joined: Wed Apr 22, 2009 5:37 pm

Predicton wrote:Hi T,

I suppose that it boils down to whether or not you believe that the pain barrier/ fear, greed/ primitive brain response can be controlled by training, meditation, willpower or whatever. I believe that in the same way we're unable to leave our hand on a glass partition when a snake bites, or we're unable to not blink when heading a football, we're unable to avoid behaving irrationally in a trade, if it all becomes "too much for us to bear". I hope that you're correct and that this emotion can be controlled, I just have a nagging feeling that it can't, but who knows?

cheers, P
i believe you can take measures to stop it from taking total control.i know its not easy, this fear/greed thing is not clear cut (just like all emotions), but i dont believe you can completly control it, it is after all a fundemental part of our make up.
woohoojd
Posts: 27
Joined: Sun Feb 13, 2011 12:26 am

James1st I'm totally new to bet angel and found your posts very interesting. I think all your comments are valid and I like your responses to some of the less supportive posts.

I have a couple of questions some directly in response to your posts and others that are general queries from experimenting with the software:

(1) is there an easy way to get hold of historic data to enable analysis of trends... I have seen the excel 'charting' sheet but suspect there is already resource available

(2) you discuss strike rates and their correlation with profit / tick size (i.e. you can accept a lower strike rate if you are trading for more ticks as part of your trading strategy) - please can you expand on this? Are you looking for 5, 10, 20 ticks? Surely there is a point when this moves away from trading and becomes gambling as I imagine there are only so many ticks you can 'trade'. Do these larger tick trading strategies typically involve longer term trades which will tie up your bank for a longer period?

(3) do you have one trading strategy you stick to solely or do you have multiple trading plans for multiple markets (i.e. you trade like this for certain horse races and a different way for other horses and a different way for football or do you just focus on one strategy and one market)?

(4) do you use the dutching and bookmaker features regularly or are these just a tool you use occasionally?

(5) I want bet angel to repeat a previous trade I have placed and closed in a market. For example lay at 2.5 back at 2.52, if this is closed out I want betangel to place anotha lay at 2.5 and so on. Is this only possible through excel integration? I've seen the automation tool but don't fully understand it - does it only place one trade so I wouldnt get the second trade and it seems like you can only state one set of automation rules which will then be applied to all markets where you tick the back / lay automation button. This is no good when you want to apply different prices to different markets.

Any comments much appreciated

Thanks

JD
James1st
Posts: 318
Joined: Thu Apr 16, 2009 10:28 am

First of all let me thank Prediction and to To75ne of the original thread, for their invaluable contribution on this thread. No one has mentioned the human condition about achieving perfection and the extraordinary lengths some people will go to, to be right all of the time. Trading is a game of risk v reward, so it’s impossible to be correct 100% of the time and accepting that there are some races you will lose is part of trading.

Welcome to the forum woohoojd. I will try to answer some of your questions here.

I am not aware of historical trend data being available although the charting from Betfair and from BA will give you an overview of what typical trends look like. If you screen captured the graphs for a period (typically 10 minutes before the off) you would get the general idea and that is all you may need since there are similarities to many financial instruments. Personally I capture the data in Excel and save the data and charts from each race but developing the means necessary is both complex and time consuming.

There is a mathematical relationship between the odds, the stake, the tick size and the number of ticks won/lost and it is something that is fundamental to the money management aspects of trading. It is probably a safe option to use the auto staking feature when you are starting out in trading, such that you will not be overstaking. Basically there are 3 methods of trading: scalping, range trading and trend trading. Each of them have their own relationship formula as typically scalpers look for single ticks, range traders for 1-3 ticks and a trend trader rides the wave for as many ticks as are available in a single trend.

Assuming you are using proportionate stakes (to the odds) then a scalper making 1 tick has to achieve a greater than 50% success rate (some claim to make 85%). It is a fairly simple formula to work out the %age success rate for any average tick gain.

Trend traders can capture many ticks from a trend, although it’s generally the middle third of the whole move but there is nothing to suggest that it is any more of a gamble than other types of trade. It is true that trend traders are not in and out of the market as quickly as scalpers or range traders, so in that respect they are exposed to risk for a longer period.

Every market is different, some trending, some ranging and others pretty static, so it is useful to learn all the skills to maximise profits.

I don’t use Dutching/Bookmaking or the Auto trading function in BA, so perhaps I will leave that question to others with more experience of those techniques than myself.
marcbrennan
Posts: 4
Joined: Tue Apr 26, 2011 12:19 am

Hi James
im a newbie.ive saturated myself in this BA ,videos etc for 6 weeks now .ive blown my 100 euro bank 4 times now.i am verry verry greatfull for your posts,ive taken a alot of great info from them that would have cost me endles financial losses,frustration,and loss of valuable time..i thank you verry much.
sincerly
marc
Post Reply

Return to “Betfair trading strategies”