Hi guys, been making plenty of £££s from betting in-running using Bet Angel and I've been paying the good ol' Premium Charge for several months now.
Since the move to 2% commission I've been busy creating and editing hundreds of variations of automations on other markets to try and increase my commission generated without impacting my profits. And I just can't get anything to work.
I have automations that successfully match 100s of back bets a day (all pre-off) at 85-95% market rounds and 100s of lays at 105-115%. Logic says this should be more than enough to beat the 2% commission but for some reason everything I try is nowhere near payback and most all lose significant money in the long run. Far more than just 2% commission.
I've tried various sports, different variations of staking and timing, I've analysed results to focus on areas that are working better and removing those that arent performing, but nothing works.
What am I missing? Why would consistent laying at 105-115% and backing at 85-95% not payback?
Can't get any automation to return anything other than a big fat loss!
When you say laying at 105-115%, do you mean laying the field for such an overround and having some bets matched, some not?
For horse racing at least, the market is so inefficient with horses getting backed 10>4 and similarly drifters, that even laying for an overround of 115% could result in laying a 3.0 chance at 5.0. The people who study racing and are more clued-up will take the value bets while the other bets won't get matched.
I haven't done much automation or PC avoidance so I can't give you an answer but horse racing is a sport that I'd be wary of relying on an overround to ensure prices have any value.
For horse racing at least, the market is so inefficient with horses getting backed 10>4 and similarly drifters, that even laying for an overround of 115% could result in laying a 3.0 chance at 5.0. The people who study racing and are more clued-up will take the value bets while the other bets won't get matched.
I haven't done much automation or PC avoidance so I can't give you an answer but horse racing is a sport that I'd be wary of relying on an overround to ensure prices have any value.
- jamesedwards
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- Joined: Wed Nov 21, 2018 6:16 pm
Thanks for the response.Derek27 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 28, 2020 10:10 pmWhen you say laying at 105-115%, do you mean laying the field for such an overround and having some bets matched, some not?
For horse racing at least, the market is so inefficient with horses getting backed 10>4 and similarly drifters, that even laying for an overround of 115% could result in laying a 3.0 chance at 5.0. The people who study racing and are more clued-up will take the value bets while the other bets won't get matched.
I haven't done much automation or PC avoidance so I can't give you an answer but horse racing is a sport that I'd be wary of relying on an overround to ensure prices have any value.
As the motive is to generate as much commission as possible my automation just makes one trade in a market and then stops. The idea being I should win in some markets and lose in others, but because I am betting in an overround in my favour on average it should return a reasonable percent.
I get your point about inefficiencies exploiting my rules but even in more random markets like 'both teams to score' or 'over/under 2.5 goals' in football, the rules come back heavily negative. I found greyhounds particularly bad so I even swapped my rules around backing where the rule would have previously laid and vice versa but gave similar losing results. I just dont get it and I'm finding it all very frustrating.
- ShaunWhite
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Where are you finding all these markets where you can back everything at 85% or lay everything at 110%+? Discrepancies like that tend to get snapped up really quickly. If you find any of those I'd just take the cash rather than use it to generate commission.
Are you taking prices in these weak markets? And when you say one trade, what are you closing at? To generate commission then you really want to back in one market and lay the opposite outcome via a different market rather than backing and laying in one market.
Sorry so many questions but I'm just trying to understand.
Are you taking prices in these weak markets? And when you say one trade, what are you closing at? To generate commission then you really want to back in one market and lay the opposite outcome via a different market rather than backing and laying in one market.
Sorry so many questions but I'm just trying to understand.
I think he means offering to back/lay at those overrounds and taking one bet rather than trading out, with the aim to win some, lose some, break near even and generate commission in the process.ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Wed Jan 29, 2020 12:09 amWhere are you finding all these markets where you can back everything at 85% or lay everything at 110%+? Discrepancies like that tend to get snapped up really quickly.
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Are you taking prices in these weak markets? And when you say one trade, what are you closing at?
- jamesedwards
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- Joined: Wed Nov 21, 2018 6:16 pm
Yes, thanks Derek. That is correct.Derek27 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 29, 2020 1:36 amI think he means offering to back/lay at those overrounds and taking one bet rather than trading out, with the aim to win some, lose some, break near even and generate commission in the process.ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Wed Jan 29, 2020 12:09 amWhere are you finding all these markets where you can back everything at 85% or lay everything at 110%+? Discrepancies like that tend to get snapped up really quickly.
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Are you taking prices in these weak markets? And when you say one trade, what are you closing at?
- ShaunWhite
- Posts: 9731
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
I don't see what the overround has got to do with the value you're obtaining on a single bet. In fact, as your offer is more likely to be taken when your offer is seen as good value for that individual selection (and therefore poor value for you) losing is almost a self fulfilling prophecy. How are you judging whether your individual offers (that are taken) are value bets?jameegray1 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 29, 2020 2:01 amYes, thanks Derek. That is correct.Derek27 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 29, 2020 1:36 amI think he means offering to back/lay at those overrounds and taking one bet rather than trading out, with the aim to win some, lose some, break near even and generate commission in the process.ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Wed Jan 29, 2020 12:09 amWhere are you finding all these markets where you can back everything at 85% or lay everything at 110%+? Discrepancies like that tend to get snapped up really quickly.
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Are you taking prices in these weak markets? And when you say one trade, what are you closing at?
It's like when people say you get better value on the exchange than a bookie because the overround is lower, yes that's true if you back everything, but that doesn't necessarily mean you're getting better value on specific individual horses. You usually do of course but that's not a given just because the overround is lower overall. Overround is the sum of the implied probabilities not what they are individually.
- jamesedwards
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- Kafkaesque
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jameegray1 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 28, 2020 9:21 pmI have automations that successfully match 100s of back bets a day (all pre-off) at 85-95% market rounds and 100s of lays at 105-115%. Logic says this should be more than enough to beat the 2% commission
To give a specific, extreme, example to what Shaun is saying. If say Liverpool are playing a random team and you ask for back prices across the board at a time when rumours has it, that there's a virus bug going round the Liverpool camp, meaning Mane and Salah are touch and go to start. If it's confirmed that they'll start, you'll get matched for back bets on the opposition, and if they don't start you'll get matched on Liverpool. In either case, you're on the wrong side of value, at the time you're being matched. Which is the time that counts; not when you ask for the price.ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Wed Jan 29, 2020 3:54 pmI don't see what the overround has got to do with the value you're obtaining on a single bet. In fact, as your offer is more likely to be taken when your offer is seen as good value for that individual selection (and therefore poor value for you) losing is almost a self fulfilling prophecy. How are you judging whether your individual offers (that are taken) are value bets?
It's like when people say you get better value on the exchange than a bookie because the overround is lower, yes that's true if you back everything, but that doesn't necessarily mean you're getting better value on specific individual horses. You usually do of course but that's not a given just because the overround is lower overall. Overround is the sum of the implied probabilities not what they are individually.
Overround doesn't logically say anything about beating the commission, unless you get the price then and there, with the information available then and there.