Can't get any automation to return anything other than a big fat loss!

Learn sports betting strategies and discuss key factors to consider when placing a bet.
Post Reply
User avatar
jamesedwards
Posts: 2234
Joined: Wed Nov 21, 2018 6:16 pm

Hi guys, been making plenty of £££s from betting in-running using Bet Angel and I've been paying the good ol' Premium Charge for several months now.

Since the move to 2% commission I've been busy creating and editing hundreds of variations of automations on other markets to try and increase my commission generated without impacting my profits. And I just can't get anything to work.

I have automations that successfully match 100s of back bets a day (all pre-off) at 85-95% market rounds and 100s of lays at 105-115%. Logic says this should be more than enough to beat the 2% commission but for some reason everything I try is nowhere near payback and most all lose significant money in the long run. Far more than just 2% commission.

I've tried various sports, different variations of staking and timing, I've analysed results to focus on areas that are working better and removing those that arent performing, but nothing works.

What am I missing? Why would consistent laying at 105-115% and backing at 85-95% not payback?
User avatar
Derek27
Posts: 23477
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

When you say laying at 105-115%, do you mean laying the field for such an overround and having some bets matched, some not?

For horse racing at least, the market is so inefficient with horses getting backed 10>4 and similarly drifters, that even laying for an overround of 115% could result in laying a 3.0 chance at 5.0. The people who study racing and are more clued-up will take the value bets while the other bets won't get matched.

I haven't done much automation or PC avoidance so I can't give you an answer but horse racing is a sport that I'd be wary of relying on an overround to ensure prices have any value.
User avatar
jamesedwards
Posts: 2234
Joined: Wed Nov 21, 2018 6:16 pm

Derek27 wrote:
Tue Jan 28, 2020 10:10 pm
When you say laying at 105-115%, do you mean laying the field for such an overround and having some bets matched, some not?

For horse racing at least, the market is so inefficient with horses getting backed 10>4 and similarly drifters, that even laying for an overround of 115% could result in laying a 3.0 chance at 5.0. The people who study racing and are more clued-up will take the value bets while the other bets won't get matched.

I haven't done much automation or PC avoidance so I can't give you an answer but horse racing is a sport that I'd be wary of relying on an overround to ensure prices have any value.
Thanks for the response.

As the motive is to generate as much commission as possible my automation just makes one trade in a market and then stops. The idea being I should win in some markets and lose in others, but because I am betting in an overround in my favour on average it should return a reasonable percent.

I get your point about inefficiencies exploiting my rules but even in more random markets like 'both teams to score' or 'over/under 2.5 goals' in football, the rules come back heavily negative. I found greyhounds particularly bad so I even swapped my rules around backing where the rule would have previously laid and vice versa but gave similar losing results. I just dont get it and I'm finding it all very frustrating.
User avatar
ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Where are you finding all these markets where you can back everything at 85% or lay everything at 110%+? Discrepancies like that tend to get snapped up really quickly. If you find any of those I'd just take the cash rather than use it to generate commission.

Are you taking prices in these weak markets? And when you say one trade, what are you closing at? To generate commission then you really want to back in one market and lay the opposite outcome via a different market rather than backing and laying in one market.

Sorry so many questions but I'm just trying to understand.
User avatar
Dallas
Posts: 22674
Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:57 pm
Location: Working From Home

The best markets to use are soccer markets, just look for connected like O/U0.5,and CS 0-0 then like shaun said you can back in one and lay in the other
User avatar
Derek27
Posts: 23477
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

ShaunWhite wrote:
Wed Jan 29, 2020 12:09 am
Where are you finding all these markets where you can back everything at 85% or lay everything at 110%+? Discrepancies like that tend to get snapped up really quickly.
.....
Are you taking prices in these weak markets? And when you say one trade, what are you closing at?
I think he means offering to back/lay at those overrounds and taking one bet rather than trading out, with the aim to win some, lose some, break near even and generate commission in the process.
User avatar
jamesedwards
Posts: 2234
Joined: Wed Nov 21, 2018 6:16 pm

Derek27 wrote:
Wed Jan 29, 2020 1:36 am
ShaunWhite wrote:
Wed Jan 29, 2020 12:09 am
Where are you finding all these markets where you can back everything at 85% or lay everything at 110%+? Discrepancies like that tend to get snapped up really quickly.
.....
Are you taking prices in these weak markets? And when you say one trade, what are you closing at?
I think he means offering to back/lay at those overrounds and taking one bet rather than trading out, with the aim to win some, lose some, break near even and generate commission in the process.
Yes, thanks Derek. That is correct.
User avatar
ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

jameegray1 wrote:
Wed Jan 29, 2020 2:01 am
Derek27 wrote:
Wed Jan 29, 2020 1:36 am
ShaunWhite wrote:
Wed Jan 29, 2020 12:09 am
Where are you finding all these markets where you can back everything at 85% or lay everything at 110%+? Discrepancies like that tend to get snapped up really quickly.
.....
Are you taking prices in these weak markets? And when you say one trade, what are you closing at?
I think he means offering to back/lay at those overrounds and taking one bet rather than trading out, with the aim to win some, lose some, break near even and generate commission in the process.
Yes, thanks Derek. That is correct.
I don't see what the overround has got to do with the value you're obtaining on a single bet. In fact, as your offer is more likely to be taken when your offer is seen as good value for that individual selection (and therefore poor value for you) losing is almost a self fulfilling prophecy. How are you judging whether your individual offers (that are taken) are value bets?

It's like when people say you get better value on the exchange than a bookie because the overround is lower, yes that's true if you back everything, but that doesn't necessarily mean you're getting better value on specific individual horses. You usually do of course but that's not a given just because the overround is lower overall. Overround is the sum of the implied probabilities not what they are individually.
User avatar
Euler
Posts: 24701
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

Dutch racing when the book is 100% close to the off to break even in the long term and generate commission.
User avatar
jamesedwards
Posts: 2234
Joined: Wed Nov 21, 2018 6:16 pm

Euler wrote:
Wed Jan 29, 2020 4:34 pm
Dutch racing when the book is 100% close to the off to break even in the long term and generate commission.
Thanks very much for the tip. I'll give this a go.
rik
Posts: 1583
Joined: Sat Jan 25, 2014 5:16 am
Location: London

check the start price for the bets that were taken, more often than not price will have moved through your offer
User avatar
Kafkaesque
Posts: 886
Joined: Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:20 am

jameegray1 wrote:
Tue Jan 28, 2020 9:21 pm
I have automations that successfully match 100s of back bets a day (all pre-off) at 85-95% market rounds and 100s of lays at 105-115%. Logic says this should be more than enough to beat the 2% commission
ShaunWhite wrote:
Wed Jan 29, 2020 3:54 pm
I don't see what the overround has got to do with the value you're obtaining on a single bet. In fact, as your offer is more likely to be taken when your offer is seen as good value for that individual selection (and therefore poor value for you) losing is almost a self fulfilling prophecy. How are you judging whether your individual offers (that are taken) are value bets?

It's like when people say you get better value on the exchange than a bookie because the overround is lower, yes that's true if you back everything, but that doesn't necessarily mean you're getting better value on specific individual horses. You usually do of course but that's not a given just because the overround is lower overall. Overround is the sum of the implied probabilities not what they are individually.
To give a specific, extreme, example to what Shaun is saying. If say Liverpool are playing a random team and you ask for back prices across the board at a time when rumours has it, that there's a virus bug going round the Liverpool camp, meaning Mane and Salah are touch and go to start. If it's confirmed that they'll start, you'll get matched for back bets on the opposition, and if they don't start you'll get matched on Liverpool. In either case, you're on the wrong side of value, at the time you're being matched. Which is the time that counts; not when you ask for the price.

Overround doesn't logically say anything about beating the commission, unless you get the price then and there, with the information available then and there.
User avatar
Derek27
Posts: 23477
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

I haven't investigated it, but wouldn't backing the favourite in a tennis match with a tight overround more or less break-even?
Post Reply

Return to “Betfair trading strategies”