Can't get any automation to return anything other than a big fat loss!

Learn sports betting strategies and discuss key factors to consider when placing a bet.
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rik
Posts: 1583
Joined: Sat Jan 25, 2014 5:16 am
Location: London

check the start price for the bets that were taken, more often than not price will have moved through your offer
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Kafkaesque
Posts: 886
Joined: Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:20 am

jameegray1 wrote:
Tue Jan 28, 2020 9:21 pm
I have automations that successfully match 100s of back bets a day (all pre-off) at 85-95% market rounds and 100s of lays at 105-115%. Logic says this should be more than enough to beat the 2% commission
ShaunWhite wrote:
Wed Jan 29, 2020 3:54 pm
I don't see what the overround has got to do with the value you're obtaining on a single bet. In fact, as your offer is more likely to be taken when your offer is seen as good value for that individual selection (and therefore poor value for you) losing is almost a self fulfilling prophecy. How are you judging whether your individual offers (that are taken) are value bets?

It's like when people say you get better value on the exchange than a bookie because the overround is lower, yes that's true if you back everything, but that doesn't necessarily mean you're getting better value on specific individual horses. You usually do of course but that's not a given just because the overround is lower overall. Overround is the sum of the implied probabilities not what they are individually.
To give a specific, extreme, example to what Shaun is saying. If say Liverpool are playing a random team and you ask for back prices across the board at a time when rumours has it, that there's a virus bug going round the Liverpool camp, meaning Mane and Salah are touch and go to start. If it's confirmed that they'll start, you'll get matched for back bets on the opposition, and if they don't start you'll get matched on Liverpool. In either case, you're on the wrong side of value, at the time you're being matched. Which is the time that counts; not when you ask for the price.

Overround doesn't logically say anything about beating the commission, unless you get the price then and there, with the information available then and there.
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Derek27
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Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

I haven't investigated it, but wouldn't backing the favourite in a tennis match with a tight overround more or less break-even?
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