How to work out win % rate.

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globi166
Posts: 93
Joined: Fri Mar 02, 2018 10:24 am

Dear friends,

As I was about to try one of the new strategies one question came in to my mind.
If I lay selection on odds 3.00 I know my strike rate is 66.67% (odds to win %). Lets say I would like to lay 3 selections at odds 3.00. If all get matched win rate is 100%. Now is there a way to calculate what are my odds of getting matched 3 selection at odds 3.00 ? I know its obviously depends of number of selection in a race of event, odds (some selections might be priced below 3.00) But I cant figure it out base rate.

example: 2m Nov Hcap Hrd 11 selections odds from 4.00 to 36.00. Is there a way to calculate what are my chances of 3 selections being matched at odds 3.00 ???

Thank you for your kind help.
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Derek27
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Location: UK

globi166 wrote:
Mon Sep 21, 2020 11:37 am
Dear friends,

As I was about to try one of the new strategies one question came in to my mind.
If I lay selection on odds 3.00 I know my strike rate is 66.67% (odds to win %). Lets say I would like to lay 3 selections at odds 3.00. If all get matched win rate is 100%. Now is there a way to calculate what are my odds of getting matched 3 selection at odds 3.00 ? I know its obviously depends of number of selection in a race of event, odds (some selections might be priced below 3.00) But I cant figure it out base rate.

example: 2m Nov Hcap Hrd 11 selections odds from 4.00 to 36.00. Is there a way to calculate what are my chances of 3 selections being matched at odds 3.00 ???

Thank you for your kind help.
Apologies if I've misunderstood your question. You can calculate the probability in roulette but you cannot possibly calculate probabilities in sporting events. Opinions will vary, especially in horse racing. That's what makes betting and trading profitable.

Laying 3 horses at 3.0 doesn't mean your win rate is 100%. You only win if all 3 get beaten and break even if one of them wins. Or did you mean overround?
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globi166
Posts: 93
Joined: Fri Mar 02, 2018 10:24 am

Yes overround sorry that is what I meant. Value betting I guess is trying to work out if chance is bigger or smaller then the odds so I guess you can do that. In a long run odds will reflect exact probability of a horse winning so it must be possible somehow to calculate chance of lets say 3 getting matched, I saw laying the field strategy so Im sure if someone is successful doing it can see what are the chances of that happening (or how to calculate it).
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globi166
Posts: 93
Joined: Fri Mar 02, 2018 10:24 am

Well I guess no free lunch :D I need to put my £ on the line do 100 races and find out myself :roll:
jamesg46
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Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:05 pm

globi166 wrote:
Tue Sep 22, 2020 10:22 am
Well I guess no free lunch :D I need to put my £ on the line do 100 races and find out myself :roll:
Can you not use the bookmaking tool to find this out?
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globi166
Posts: 93
Joined: Fri Mar 02, 2018 10:24 am

No I dont see how that would work.
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globi166
Posts: 93
Joined: Fri Mar 02, 2018 10:24 am

globi166 wrote:
Tue Sep 22, 2020 12:01 pm
No I dont see how that would work.
Or wait! Maybe I missed something.
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