Reality of a live market (LTF, Trade Profit)

Learn sports betting strategies and discuss key factors to consider when placing a bet.
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Brovashift
Posts: 475
Joined: Tue May 18, 2021 12:35 am

Hi all,

New to sports trading and have been focusing on LTF strategy as my first step on this journey.
Currently playing around with BA in practice mode, familiarizing myself with the different courses, what works where etc. And I am thinking of trying LTF on a live market on Saturday to get the best liquidity, and using small stakes. However, I just want some clarity before I dive in....

Lets say I LTF with an initial liability of £5, and get e.g. 4 bets matched during the race.

If during the race I decide that the profit on all 4 matches looks good and I decide to hit each individual green profit in the trade profit column... what is likely to happen in a live market, as practice mode obviously guarantees a fill. Could my order; 1) just not get filled, or 2) just more than likely filled at a "different" price than what I see in that nano second. But ultimately that is the profit/loss Id be finishing the race with?

Unless... 1 of the 4 matches wins the race, then would I just forfeit the locked in profit on that horse, as well as the initial £5 liability? Or by trading out early would my liability change, based on the odds that my position (bet) was closed at during the race?

Also, I know professionals always say to green up, but if only 4 bets matched out of e.g. a 10 horse race, is there any point in greening the whole field when at least 3 horses in this example will be guaranteed losers (or in this case winners lol).

Hope Ive explained that right. Thanks in advance.
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Silverthorn
Posts: 26
Joined: Sat Mar 13, 2021 2:47 pm
Location: Australia

I think you'll find that most Professionals Green up BEFORE the off to avoid the type of complication you are referring to. Only very brave ones and punters go in play because there is nothing you can do about the sometimes dramatic price changes between click and execute.
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Derek27
Posts: 23471
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Brovashift wrote:
Fri Jun 04, 2021 1:04 pm
Hi all,

New to sports trading and have been focusing on LTF strategy as my first step on this journey.
Currently playing around with BA in practice mode, familiarizing myself with the different courses, what works where etc. And I am thinking of trying LTF on a live market on Saturday to get the best liquidity, and using small stakes. However, I just want some clarity before I dive in....

Lets say I LTF with an initial liability of £5, and get e.g. 4 bets matched during the race.

If during the race I decide that the profit on all 4 matches looks good and I decide to hit each individual green profit in the trade profit column... what is likely to happen in a live market, as practice mode obviously guarantees a fill. Could my order; 1) just not get filled, or 2) just more than likely filled at a "different" price than what I see in that nano second. But ultimately that is the profit/loss Id be finishing the race with?

Unless... 1 of the 4 matches wins the race, then would I just forfeit the locked in profit on that horse, as well as the initial £5 liability? Or by trading out early would my liability change, based on the odds that my position (bet) was closed at during the race?

Also, I know professionals always say to green up, but if only 4 bets matched out of e.g. a 10 horse race, is there any point in greening the whole field when at least 3 horses in this example will be guaranteed losers (or in this case winners lol).

Hope Ive explained that right. Thanks in advance.
Are you trading pre-off or in-play?

I think you're confusing bookmaking/dutching with swing trading. If you're swing trading you only need to trade one horse, when you green up you have the same profit or loss across the entire field. Only when bookmaking or dutching do you need to lay or back every runner to green up. If you don't green up then you're not trading but gambling, which is fine if that's what you intend to do.
Clevz23
Posts: 2
Joined: Sun Dec 23, 2018 8:30 am

If you are using a LTF strategy why are you trading out of your open position? The idea is to LTF at a price point below 2.00 and then just let it run. Match only 1 and you have a losing trade. Match 2 or more and you have yourself a winning trade. if you're talking of matching the lay position then trading out when in a green positon surely thats just a Lay 2 Back trade. Or am I misunderstanding your question?
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Brovashift
Posts: 475
Joined: Tue May 18, 2021 12:35 am

Derek27 wrote:
Sat Jun 05, 2021 5:30 am
Brovashift wrote:
Fri Jun 04, 2021 1:04 pm
Hi all,

New to sports trading and have been focusing on LTF strategy as my first step on this journey.
Currently playing around with BA in practice mode, familiarizing myself with the different courses, what works where etc. And I am thinking of trying LTF on a live market on Saturday to get the best liquidity, and using small stakes. However, I just want some clarity before I dive in....

Lets say I LTF with an initial liability of £5, and get e.g. 4 bets matched during the race.

If during the race I decide that the profit on all 4 matches looks good and I decide to hit each individual green profit in the trade profit column... what is likely to happen in a live market, as practice mode obviously guarantees a fill. Could my order; 1) just not get filled, or 2) just more than likely filled at a "different" price than what I see in that nano second. But ultimately that is the profit/loss Id be finishing the race with?

Unless... 1 of the 4 matches wins the race, then would I just forfeit the locked in profit on that horse, as well as the initial £5 liability? Or by trading out early would my liability change, based on the odds that my position (bet) was closed at during the race?

Also, I know professionals always say to green up, but if only 4 bets matched out of e.g. a 10 horse race, is there any point in greening the whole field when at least 3 horses in this example will be guaranteed losers (or in this case winners lol).

Hope Ive explained that right. Thanks in advance.
Are you trading pre-off or in-play?

I think you're confusing bookmaking/dutching with swing trading. If you're swing trading you only need to trade one horse, when you green up you have the same profit or loss across the entire field. Only when bookmaking or dutching do you need to lay or back every runner to green up. If you don't green up then you're not trading but gambling, which is fine if that's what you intend to do.
Hi Derek,

Sorry all for the confusion, it's hard to put it across correctly when I am unsure myself lol. It doesn't flow right when you are reading it, and it doesn't flow right as I am trying to explain it either! :?

I was laying the field just before the off and then taking the trade In-Play, and greening up if 1 or more bets were matched. I am not sure about Bookmaking/Dutching, or swing trading yet, I am just focusing on the LFT strategy to begin with.

When toggling the 'Green up' check box on and off mid race I see my matched bets profit
/loss fluctuate rapidly, but as the race nears completion more often than not odds increase rapidly, where (in practice mode) I could trade out for a better profit than if I had greened up the whole field.

Obviously I am aware I am in practice mode and that live trading could be totally different, which is why I wanted to ask experienced traders before jumping in.

I was laying at odds of 3, depending on what the odds were looking like across all runners pre off, with a stake of £2.50 to keep my liability small (2.50 * (3-1)) = £5.

Like Clevz23 says; By trading out early before the finish, am I changing this from a lay the field strategy to something else? e.g. a lay and back? Maybe that's where the confusion is coming from?

And Silverthorn; this was why I was asking the question because I felt like I was missing something. I have read that a trader/gambler has to be brave to take a trade in-play... However, here is where I need the clarity; if my liability is e.g. the £5 stated above, I can stomach a worse case scenario of losing £5 liability to the 1 winning horse. Especially if by trading out early on another lay bet for e.g. £50.

I think the practice mode might be lulling me into a false expectation of real live trading, and is why I need clarity/reality check from you guys first.

Thanks. Be as harsh as you want, I can take it! :D
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Brovashift
Posts: 475
Joined: Tue May 18, 2021 12:35 am

Silverthorn wrote:
Sat Jun 05, 2021 4:31 am
I think you'll find that most Professionals Green up BEFORE the off to avoid the type of complication you are referring to. Only very brave ones and punters go in play because there is nothing you can do about the sometimes dramatic price changes between click and execute.
If using the LTF strategy and only 1 lay bet gets matched, and that horse turns out to be the winner, than don't you just lose your liability? Is that the worst case scenario or am I missing something? :geek:
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Brovashift
Posts: 475
Joined: Tue May 18, 2021 12:35 am

Derek27 wrote:
Sat Jun 05, 2021 5:30 am
Brovashift wrote:
Fri Jun 04, 2021 1:04 pm
Hi all,

New to sports trading and have been focusing on LTF strategy as my first step on this journey.
Currently playing around with BA in practice mode, familiarizing myself with the different courses, what works where etc. And I am thinking of trying LTF on a live market on Saturday to get the best liquidity, and using small stakes. However, I just want some clarity before I dive in....

Lets say I LTF with an initial liability of £5, and get e.g. 4 bets matched during the race.

If during the race I decide that the profit on all 4 matches looks good and I decide to hit each individual green profit in the trade profit column... what is likely to happen in a live market, as practice mode obviously guarantees a fill. Could my order; 1) just not get filled, or 2) just more than likely filled at a "different" price than what I see in that nano second. But ultimately that is the profit/loss Id be finishing the race with?

Unless... 1 of the 4 matches wins the race, then would I just forfeit the locked in profit on that horse, as well as the initial £5 liability? Or by trading out early would my liability change, based on the odds that my position (bet) was closed at during the race?

Also, I know professionals always say to green up, but if only 4 bets matched out of e.g. a 10 horse race, is there any point in greening the whole field when at least 3 horses in this example will be guaranteed losers (or in this case winners lol).

Hope Ive explained that right. Thanks in advance.
Are you trading pre-off or in-play?

I think you're confusing bookmaking/dutching with swing trading. If you're swing trading you only need to trade one horse, when you green up you have the same profit or loss across the entire field. Only when bookmaking or dutching do you need to lay or back every runner to green up. If you don't green up then you're not trading but gambling, which is fine if that's what you intend to do.
Here... I have just place the trade or bet in a live market to see what happens, and have taken screen captures to make things easier.
So I got 2 lay bets matched, 1 ended up being the winner, so lost my liability of £5, as expected. The other bet was layed at 2.72 and backed at 19. Closing the trade near the finish line, trade profit showing £43.20.
In my Betfair account I see my £5 liability loss, and the £2.50 from my other lay bet.

What I don't understand is the £43.20 showing in BA when I traded out. You can only win your stake, but what is the 43.20?

I think today is going to be a good lesson... :ugeek:
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Derek27
Posts: 23471
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Brovashift wrote:
Sat Jun 05, 2021 2:57 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Sat Jun 05, 2021 5:30 am
Brovashift wrote:
Fri Jun 04, 2021 1:04 pm
Hi all,

New to sports trading and have been focusing on LTF strategy as my first step on this journey.
Currently playing around with BA in practice mode, familiarizing myself with the different courses, what works where etc. And I am thinking of trying LTF on a live market on Saturday to get the best liquidity, and using small stakes. However, I just want some clarity before I dive in....

Lets say I LTF with an initial liability of £5, and get e.g. 4 bets matched during the race.

If during the race I decide that the profit on all 4 matches looks good and I decide to hit each individual green profit in the trade profit column... what is likely to happen in a live market, as practice mode obviously guarantees a fill. Could my order; 1) just not get filled, or 2) just more than likely filled at a "different" price than what I see in that nano second. But ultimately that is the profit/loss Id be finishing the race with?

Unless... 1 of the 4 matches wins the race, then would I just forfeit the locked in profit on that horse, as well as the initial £5 liability? Or by trading out early would my liability change, based on the odds that my position (bet) was closed at during the race?

Also, I know professionals always say to green up, but if only 4 bets matched out of e.g. a 10 horse race, is there any point in greening the whole field when at least 3 horses in this example will be guaranteed losers (or in this case winners lol).

Hope Ive explained that right. Thanks in advance.
Are you trading pre-off or in-play?

I think you're confusing bookmaking/dutching with swing trading. If you're swing trading you only need to trade one horse, when you green up you have the same profit or loss across the entire field. Only when bookmaking or dutching do you need to lay or back every runner to green up. If you don't green up then you're not trading but gambling, which is fine if that's what you intend to do.
Here... I have just place the trade or bet in a live market to see what happens, and have taken screen captures to make things easier.
So I got 2 lay bets matched, 1 ended up being the winner, so lost my liability of £5, as expected. The other bet was layed at 2.72 and backed at 19. Closing the trade near the finish line, trade profit showing £43.20.
In my Betfair account I see my £5 liability loss, and the £2.50 from my other lay bet.

What I don't understand is the £43.20 showing in BA when I traded out. You can only win your stake, but what is the 43.20?

I think today is going to be a good lesson... :ugeek:
The £43.20 is what you would have won if Statement won the race. When you toggle the green-up button the software switches between your position if you close trade (back and lay for equal amounts) and your position if you green-up (back and lay for different amounts to level your P/L across the field).

You've probably heard people say never let trades go in-play. They are specifically referring to pre-off traders who let trades go in-play because they cannot stomach a loss, not in-play traders or pre-race traders where in-play trades/closes are part of the plan. You don't need to be particularly brave to trade in-play. All you're doing is what 1000s of punters up and down the country are doing, going into bookies to place a £5 bet and let it run. :)
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Brovashift
Posts: 475
Joined: Tue May 18, 2021 12:35 am

Derek27 wrote:
Sat Jun 05, 2021 4:00 pm
Brovashift wrote:
Sat Jun 05, 2021 2:57 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Sat Jun 05, 2021 5:30 am

Are you trading pre-off or in-play?

I think you're confusing bookmaking/dutching with swing trading. If you're swing trading you only need to trade one horse, when you green up you have the same profit or loss across the entire field. Only when bookmaking or dutching do you need to lay or back every runner to green up. If you don't green up then you're not trading but gambling, which is fine if that's what you intend to do.
Here... I have just place the trade or bet in a live market to see what happens, and have taken screen captures to make things easier.
So I got 2 lay bets matched, 1 ended up being the winner, so lost my liability of £5, as expected. The other bet was layed at 2.72 and backed at 19. Closing the trade near the finish line, trade profit showing £43.20.
In my Betfair account I see my £5 liability loss, and the £2.50 from my other lay bet.

What I don't understand is the £43.20 showing in BA when I traded out. You can only win your stake, but what is the 43.20?

I think today is going to be a good lesson... :ugeek:
The £43.20 is what you would have won if Statement won the race. When you toggle the green-up button the software switches between your position if you close trade (back and lay for equal amounts) and your position if you green-up (back and lay for different amounts to level your P/L across the field).

You've probably heard people say never let trades go in-play. They are specifically referring to pre-off traders who let trades go in-play because they cannot stomach a loss, not in-play traders or pre-race traders where in-play trades/closes are part of the plan. You don't need to be particularly brave to trade in-play. All you're doing is what 1000s of punters up and down the country are doing, going into bookies to place a £5 bet and let it run. :)
I think I just heard a penny drop... lets see if I've got this right :)

So initially I am laying the field i.e. for all horses "not to win". But... when I trade out of a position I am placing a back bet to exit, which then requires that particular horse(s) to win?

So when I see these exciting green numbers in the trade profit column, that's the odds moving higher and basically telling me, this horse is never going to win lol.

I think the thing that threw me was that in Peter Webb's video of LTF he says he could trade out now for a profit by hitting the Trade Profit column, but thinking about it now, he had greened up with about £6.80 on every runner.

That's one small step for my trading, one giant leap for my progress... :lol:

Thanks Derek
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Dublin_Flyer
Posts: 688
Joined: Sat Feb 11, 2012 10:39 am

Welcome to the forum Brovashift, it's refreshing to see a new person willing to look for help and ask questions rather than blame "the market" or others for their screw ups as many have done. I am but a minnow in this forum of sharks, but the sharks are by and large very helpful and friendly!
eatyourgreens
Posts: 243
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 12:53 am

also welcome to brovashift ! and I think I heard your penny drop after dereks post !

While that Mr Dublinflyer is around I have a question for him........about a year ago, probably a bit longer, I seem to remember it was you who posted about the amount of horses that win after trading at 1000/1 inplay. I think you was going to look at the total number of runners in a days racing and see if you could come out on top backing them all and waiting to see if you can hit one of the 1000/1 winners !!!! eg if a 1000/1 comes in once a day, and there are 800 runners in a day,,,,Bingo!! Just wondering if you did delve deeper into it? and what were results looking like? Thanx.

have a nice day!
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gazuty
Posts: 2547
Joined: Sun Jun 26, 2011 11:03 am
Location: Green land :)

eatyourgreens wrote:
Sat Jun 05, 2021 9:32 pm
also welcome to brovashift ! and I think I heard your penny drop after dereks post !

While that Mr Dublinflyer is around I have a question for him........about a year ago, probably a bit longer, I seem to remember it was you who posted about the amount of horses that win after trading at 1000/1 inplay. I think you was going to look at the total number of runners in a days racing and see if you could come out on top backing them all and waiting to see if you can hit one of the 1000/1 winners !!!! eg if a 1000/1 comes in once a day, and there are 800 runners in a day,,,,Bingo!! Just wondering if you did delve deeper into it? and what were results looking like? Thanx.

have a nice day!
Gubbage used to have those stats - but I see not there anymore - https://www.gubbage.com/
eatyourgreens
Posts: 243
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 12:53 am

Thanks for the link gazuty, :-) I just had a quick look, seems to be a lot of 1.01 trades in the place markets !!

Hmmmm, I feel another bot coming on !!
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