i do, although i know a bit about the horses trainers etc, but i dont look at that anymore like i use to when i picked up a paper and went to the local bookies, i do exactly what Jeff says the ladder and price movements are my friend couldnt careless who wins the race or football match dont even care about the teams or where there playingFerru123 wrote:That's patently untrue. I know pro traders who happily admit that they know nothing about the horses they are trading, and work solely from the information in the ladders and on the charts...Zenyatta wrote:
Yes, value trading is the only way to beat the manipulators, unfortunately knowing which horses are value requires a very high skill level (i.e. detailed knowledge of UK horse racing).
Jeff
SNIPERS
Do you think it's ever possible for you to be confident that you know more than the market, whose price takes into account both information in the public domain as well as that known only by connections?
Jeff
Jeff
Zenyatta wrote:Hey each to their own Alpha and Jeff, but I think value trading has the potential to be much much more profitable than simply following the price movements (I think Jolly has demonstrated that).
Kicking myself really
I ended up making £22.98 on Oosthuizen by greening up at 3.35 when it neared it's conclusion.
2 holes before however, my finger was hovvering over the confirm bets window when I was about to green up at 1.61 for £69.44 profit.
I decided to let it run because I fancied him to finish the job
Bloody idiot - I posted this on the wrong thread!!
I ended up making £22.98 on Oosthuizen by greening up at 3.35 when it neared it's conclusion.
2 holes before however, my finger was hovvering over the confirm bets window when I was about to green up at 1.61 for £69.44 profit.
I decided to let it run because I fancied him to finish the job
Bloody idiot - I posted this on the wrong thread!!
Suppose that connections subtly talk down the chances of the horse.Up go the odds because the market begins laying it.When the odds are good and high,in comes the connections and start backing it because they know that the horse is a fit as a lop and has a good chance of winning.In this case,the odds increase a relatively large amount due to the market laying it and fall a relatively small amount due to connections backing it.Ferru123 wrote:Do you think it's ever possible for you to be confident that you know more than the market, whose price takes into account both information in the public domain as well as that known only by connections?
Jeff
IMHO,the market believes what it is told to believe-not only by connections but by the press also-which is why I don't read/listen to what the connections say/press prints.
74.5
Hi 74.5 -
The market can be very stupid sometimes. Often people will bet for a horse because it's an odds-on RP nap, or because there's a big steam on and they assume that someone knows something. But on a macro level, the market is extremely efficient, and IMHO very few people are sufficiently skilled at handicapping to be able to beat the market over time through looking at fundamental factors (form, ground, draw, weight carried, etc).
Jeff
The market can be very stupid sometimes. Often people will bet for a horse because it's an odds-on RP nap, or because there's a big steam on and they assume that someone knows something. But on a macro level, the market is extremely efficient, and IMHO very few people are sufficiently skilled at handicapping to be able to beat the market over time through looking at fundamental factors (form, ground, draw, weight carried, etc).
Jeff
74.5 wrote: IMHO,the market believes what it is told to believe-not only by connections but by the press also-which is why I don't read/listen to what the connections say/press prints.
74.5
Look at Jolly Green's Lay tips. He gets very few wrong no? I'm a backer myself. And the answer is yes, I can be very confident I know more than the market, because I've been at it for nearly 2 years.Ferru123 wrote:Do you think it's ever possible for you to be confident that you know more than the market, whose price takes into account both information in the public domain as well as that known only by connections?
Jeff
P.S I've come to the conclusion that the connections of the horse are often the worst judges of their own horse. From the thread on Trading Quotes:
"If ever an owner should tell you, "Back mine" -- don't you be such a flat.
He knows his own cunning no doubt -- does he know what the others are at?
Find out what he's frightened of most, and invest a few dollars on that."
JG may be one of the few people who can be sure when the market has got it wrong. But I'd need more than a handful of posts of say one way or another.Zenyatta wrote: Look at Jolly Green's Lay tips. He gets very few wrong no?
A mate of mine used to be a pro layer. Then suddenly he went months and months where he made very little money, and he eventually became a trader. What may have happened is that the market eventually became more efficient, and starting taking into account the factors he took into account which gave him his edge.
I have a spreadsheet which shows I made a 15% level stakes profit backing horses at 9/1 and above, over something like 5,000 horses. The chances of my edge being due to randomness must be something like one in a trillion. However, I am now back in 9 to 5 work, as I had a long run where I made absolutely no money. The point I'm making is that, even if you have a spreadsheet showing an overall profit, and you've done Chi squared analysis that shows that the profit isn't due to luck, there's nothing to say that the market or racing itself won't change, and eliminate your edge.Zenyatta wrote: I'm a backer myself. And the answer is yes, I can be very confident I know more than the market, because I've been at it for nearly 2 years.
If a connection were to advise me to lay his selection, I wouldn't, as he might be telling me that as he wants people to lay it, so he can back it at a better price. But if I were at my local bookie, and say a stable lad placing a £100 bet on a horse trained by his yard, then I'd definitely be betting!Zenyatta wrote:P.S I've come to the conclusion that the connections of the horse are often the worst judges of their own horse.
Jeff
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May I suggest you never visit Newmarket. You won't have any money left if you were to use your stable lad theoryFerru123 wrote: If a connection were to advise me to lay his selection, I wouldn't, as he might be telling me that as he wants people to lay it, so he can back it at a better price. But if I were at my local bookie, and say a stable lad placing a £100 bet on a horse trained by his yard, then I'd definitely be betting!
Jeff
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At least 9 out of 10 late "gambles" are on course bookmaker "lemming" scams , no "real" money involved at all.
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Jeff
I would say there are plenty of people who know far more about the market than I do. I don't profess to be better than anyone, I only do what I know works for me. I get it wrong but not very often thankfully and I only get involved when the price is incorrect according to my personal view of the market. Obviously I enjoy posting lay or back (or trading) advice on here when I have the time but there simply isn't enough time in the day for me to post every day. It takes me about 1-1.5 hours of study per race before I feel I can sensibly advise fellow forumites to risk their cash. At other times I can just look at a market and know instantly when the prices are wrong. Again, I must stress that the prices are only wrong in my opinion based on my methods. These methods have proved correct often enough to tell me I can do it.
I will write a post on Markets, handicapping etc to try and help others understand why I do what I do and how it works; without passing on the Goose that lays the golden egg so to speak
JG
PS. lesblakeman is quite correct when he mentions lemmings at the course/shops. If you read many of my posts where I have advised a lay I also mention lemmings to the slaughter! There are plenty of them!!
I would say there are plenty of people who know far more about the market than I do. I don't profess to be better than anyone, I only do what I know works for me. I get it wrong but not very often thankfully and I only get involved when the price is incorrect according to my personal view of the market. Obviously I enjoy posting lay or back (or trading) advice on here when I have the time but there simply isn't enough time in the day for me to post every day. It takes me about 1-1.5 hours of study per race before I feel I can sensibly advise fellow forumites to risk their cash. At other times I can just look at a market and know instantly when the prices are wrong. Again, I must stress that the prices are only wrong in my opinion based on my methods. These methods have proved correct often enough to tell me I can do it.
I will write a post on Markets, handicapping etc to try and help others understand why I do what I do and how it works; without passing on the Goose that lays the golden egg so to speak
JG
PS. lesblakeman is quite correct when he mentions lemmings at the course/shops. If you read many of my posts where I have advised a lay I also mention lemmings to the slaughter! There are plenty of them!!
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A few pictures of encouragement
But yeah, there's nothing more annoying. If you do hit the jackpot and decide to start sniping, let me know what markets to stay away from!
But yeah, there's nothing more annoying. If you do hit the jackpot and decide to start sniping, let me know what markets to stay away from!
Hi Les Blakeman
I used to think that heavily steaming horses were good lays. I thought that, even if there was some good intelligence behind the gamble, the activities of trend traders and mug punters would push the price lower than its true price. However, I no longer see things as so clear-cut. Sometimes a steam is caused by mug punters, but sometimes it's caused by people in the know feeding their money into the market, and you often get strong steamers winning easily.
Jeff
I used to think that heavily steaming horses were good lays. I thought that, even if there was some good intelligence behind the gamble, the activities of trend traders and mug punters would push the price lower than its true price. However, I no longer see things as so clear-cut. Sometimes a steam is caused by mug punters, but sometimes it's caused by people in the know feeding their money into the market, and you often get strong steamers winning easily.
Jeff
lesblakeman wrote:At least 9 out of 10 late "gambles" are on course bookmaker "lemming" scams , no "real" money involved at all.
My feeling is that,once upon a time,if a horse heavily steamed it was a value lay in the same way that if a horse heavily drifted it was a value back.Nowadays this is probably less true than it used to be because this information is now in the public domain and the public are now acting on it.That changes the dynamics of the market which in turn changes the value in such horses.Ferru123 wrote:Hi Les Blakeman
I used to think that heavily steaming horses were good lays. I thought that, even if there was some good intelligence behind the gamble, the activities of trend traders and mug punters would push the price lower than its true price. However, I no longer see things as so clear-cut. Sometimes a steam is caused by mug punters, but sometimes it's caused by people in the know feeding their money into the market, and you often get strong steamers winning easily.
Jeff
The internet is a wonderful thing.Forums,such as this one,are wonderful things.They enable information to be disseminated and exchanged quickly and easily.And there's the rub as the good bard wrote.Once a piece of information becomes freely available,it becomes freely used and when it becomes freely used what was so ain't so any more.
74.5