BACK/LAY by liability, in play BOT.!shock!

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decomez6
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Joined: Mon Oct 07, 2019 5:26 pm

ShaunWhite wrote:
Mon Jul 20, 2020 7:48 pm
decomez6 wrote:
Mon Jul 20, 2020 5:44 pm
.... anything under 2.0 is always a good value to lay. .
I'm sorry but this is utter nonsense. Value occurs at any price.
at any price including ,2.0 , yes.
laying 3 horses under 2.0 will bag a guranteed profit, -Any 4 horses under 3.0, -Any 5 under 4.0...you get the drift.
all those position represent the same RETURN on INVESTMENT but a varied RISK to REWARD. if any of the bets goes against me , its only at 2.0 and below where i loose less than my initial stake, hence less risk.
AT 1.01 yous are only risking a 1p to apound, and this is why its profitable to keep your money laying there instead of keeping it a bank account earning silly savings that are taxable and have very little compounding effect. any one with cash to spare can feel the real magic of compouding at 1.01...
there are many ways to mitigate any risk ,, some may have complicated formulaes that calculate the exact amount needed to break even at any given point, or others may wait for the right moments while using fixed stakes.

strike rate has ZERO to do with winnin ... s money.

strike rate is tied to the risk and reward ratio, and only then does it determine the outcomes and how much you stand to loose or win.
another way to look at it, every strike rate has is corresponding staking plan , while every bank size has its corresponding level of confidence. i sit at the riverside doing my fishing using a fishing rod while the big Sharks got deep pockets to apply the staking plans at thier will and disposal. and BOY they are plenty!
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decomez6
Posts: 651
Joined: Mon Oct 07, 2019 5:26 pm

ShaunWhite wrote:
Mon Jul 20, 2020 7:48 pm
decomez6 wrote:
Mon Jul 20, 2020 5:44 pm
.... anything under 2.0 is always a good value to lay. .
But if you want to continue with your lay everything with an offset bot, then you'll probably need some sort of race jepardy index whereby the going, jumps/flat, distance, horse experience and course terrain might all cause the eventual winner to falter at some point. But I don't even see why you need an offset, you're just cutting your lay gains short and letting your loser go on to win.
if i cut my greens iam also cutting my reds that would potentially be working against me if iam not greened up , value is found at all prices,odds and positions ,remember. ;) in addition, i will be presesented with a potential of greening up a winner before the race even begins and i end up with a free bet plus a whole field layed and greened . this in return gives me ample time to close all trades and green all at any time of my liking.
that bot is water under the bridge , i have another better version. or so i think.

THE JOB AT HAND
you are well versed in programming and software development, correct me if am wrong. iam about to give you my understanding of what programming is all about, then explain why is relevant to take a programming approach to developing a profitable BOT.
HARDWARE
electrical flip swittches on a motherboard of any computer consist of Central Processing Units , Random Accesorry Memories etc.
at thier base level, they all work the same way. they are just electrical swithes that go ON/OFF.
SOFTWARE
its the ability to controll this millions of electrical flip swithces found in the computer ,so that they are projected on a monitor/Screen in a way that our brains can put the puzzle back together and make sense of what is being shown.
PROGRAMMER
you will be like an instructor of an ORCHESTRA, you tell the the the flip switches when and how to ON/OFF.

MY TAKe
the fundamentals of any market is that the prices will either GO up or Down ,,from a nuetral starting point. just like the BINARY functions of ON/OFF of the computer. thats why i believe there is a simple way of catching any trend in a trading platform.

SOLUTION
make a BOT, that places a BET, with a FILL or KILL,.
it will then OFFSET with a reverse bet placed 1 ticks outside the BEST reverse price.
(in ecxel this is a-1 reverse offset bet)
stakes of 200% of the netstake.
this will guarantee to SWITCH and SCRACTCH.
The bot is up there, please have a look and tell me what i could modify and make it catch a trend as soon as it switches UP /DOWN.

WE ARE ALL PART OF A PUZZLE and thats what iam bringing to the table.
HAVE a look at this video< its only 3 mins long, hope it speaks to you a languange ,that inspires comradeship.
my apologies for this loooong posts, i shall keep it short and to the point next time.

https://youtu.be/O5DACrSq5oU
elofan0
Posts: 316
Joined: Fri Jan 13, 2017 4:44 pm

The proof has to be when the bot is created that is consistent .......... i will keep watcing this post ... its interesting if nothing else for now ................... im sure something positive may eventually come from this ... if not you are a great salesman ...... :)
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ShaunWhite
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Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

you are well versed in programming and software development,

:) I've dabbled. Compared to some here I'm 2nd division but I did a couple of decades in fund management IT last century so I get the general idea.

I'm fine with the idea of comradeship, solidary, being helpful etc and although my observations are a bit direct I wouldn't be making them without that in mind. But...... If you're looking for any sort of highly detailed collaboration I don't think you'll find it here.

The thing is, sports markets are tiny and the total available profit is even smaller. And it's not a battle with the market per se, rather a battle between each of us to extract some of that profit. Lots of us here have been working full-time+ for years to develop relaibale sustainable edges.... years, and risking that edge being diluted simply isn't a sensible choice.

If I were to tell you exactly how to exploit your idea and edit your bot for you, there's going to be occasions where your order might be ahead of mine, and as helpful as I am, I'm not inclined to be sharing my wages with you on a regular basis. This whole concept of trading being a competitive sport in its own right is why people spend huge amounts of time and money trying to be the fastest to market, writing their own software (including lightweight operating systems) and researching the ideal VPS service to shave off a few milliseconds here and there. This obviously isn't such a concern for manual trading because there are other far more important considerations and speed isn't a substitute for skill. But when you're talking about bots and algorithmic trading there comes a point when you're on your own. It's why you find so much more advice about trading manually than algorithmically.

I wish you luck and you're obviously keen but my suggestion would be for you to slowdown just a touch and really try to fully understand risk/reward, money management, statistics around sample sizes, the development life cycle, ways to distinguish between parameters that are irrelevant or relevant, the real world things that happen in racing etc etc. Building a profitable bot isn't something you're likely to do by the end of the year, so use this time to learn all you'll need to get to the point where that can happen, rather than bashing out random bots and making random changes hoping they'll work.

It would also be massively beneficial if you spent a few months manual trading first to improve your understanding and to generate ideas. And COLLECT data! So much more of your strategy development can be done via analysis that way, and it's much cheaper and faster. Don't worry about it not being hyper accurate because that's not relevant.
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ShaunWhite
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elofan0 wrote:
Tue Jul 21, 2020 3:04 pm
The proof has to be when the bot is created that is consistent .....
... And you put your feet up in the garden feeling self satisfied. But 2 weeks later the results take a suicidal nosedive because someone somewhere is now doing something that affects you, and you're back to having zero income and a piece of paper with some scribbled ideas. Cue more months of graft, false dawns and disappoints.... Until the day you find the next thing :D. Just being able to fire up the PC to manually trade whatever there is using your skill and judgement starts to look very appealing.
elofan0
Posts: 316
Joined: Fri Jan 13, 2017 4:44 pm

wise words shaun as always and plenty caution as the old scenario goes a fool and his money are soon parted
.. its always practice mode for me ...
elofan0
Posts: 316
Joined: Fri Jan 13, 2017 4:44 pm

ive got more into the candlestick charts lately i feel thats a great way forward
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decomez6
Posts: 651
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Tue Jul 21, 2020 3:27 pm
you are well versed in programming and software development,

:) I've dabbled. Compared to some here I'm 2nd division but I did a couple of decades in fund management IT last century so I get the general idea.
it's not a battle with the market per se, rather a battle between each of us to extract some of that profit. Lots of us here have been working full-time+ for years

If I were to tell you exactly how to exploit your idea and edit your bot for you, there's going to be occasions where your order might be ahead of mine, and as helpful as I am, I'm not inclined to be sharing my wages with you on a regular basis.

I wish you luck and you're obviously keen but my suggestion would be for you to slowdown just a touch and really try to fully understand risk/reward, money management, statistics around sample sizes, the development life cycle, ways to distinguish between parameters that are irrelevant or relevant, the real world things that happen in racing etc etc. Building a profitable bot isn't something you're likely to do by the end of the year, so use this time to learn all you'll need to get to the point where that can happen, rather than bashing out random bots and making random changes hoping they'll work.

It would also be massively beneficial if you spent a few months manual trading first to improve your understanding and to generate ideas. And COLLECT data! So much more of your strategy development can be done via analysis that way, and it's much cheaper and faster. Don't worry about it not being hyper accurate because that's not relevant.
IT fund management :mrgreen:
Your experience is your greatest asset , I Bow In RESPECT, hut off.
I am your typical self taught , jack of all trades , specialist for none. I get stuck between science and arts. That’s why iam stuck on the Rat race economy with a 24 HR shift job. Leaves me very little time to sit down and trade. I spend a lot of time doing my daily routines to make ends meet.
I truely appreciate your advice. The forum is huge and full of useful info . And I try as much as I possibly can to look into topics. NOW I know where to put my efforts , I need that luck!
MAnual trading is my number one preference , but I must prioritise Algo trading, for time constraints reasons. I am looking forward to a day where I can have a bot making passive income to supplement my manual trading. This is when I shall quit my JOb and the full timers. HOPE I don’t keep too many balls in the air and end up catching none.
SILOS MENTALITY , is one of the many reasons why your profit is my loss and vice versa. I am sure the 5%that always make a killing from the rest of us all , Got that one figured long ago.
For very back order there is a lay order and one of the two is taking profit while the other one is opening a trade. It’s your choice which side you take and the exchanges don’t care , it’s you and I who choose to stay in this specified positions.
NOW my journey has to take into consideration , that most participants are SILOSES, I endeavour to be a CONTRARIAN and create an edge.
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decomez6
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elofan0 wrote:
Tue Jul 21, 2020 11:15 pm
ive got more into the candlestick charts lately i feel thats a great way forward
:D candle sticks are great , especially when used in conjunction with a vwap.
I personally prefer the ATR average traded range.in conjunction with a vwap.
It’s neater and quicker to execute.
The ATR sets my entry and exit points And the vwap becomes my support in a bear market if my opening trade was at the top of the range and it serves as resistance if my opening trade was at the bottom of the range.
The only problem o have is greed , I rarely get satisfaction from a single tick profit, I am a swinger by nature.
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ShaunWhite
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decomez6 wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 4:43 am
I truely appreciate your advice.
My advice is just from my perspective, it's not a how-to guide and I'm not claiming to be a great expert or mega sucessful. Everyone has to use their own strengths, interests and frankly what they actually enjoy. The novely element of trading soon wears off and you don't want to end up stuck doing a job you're not liking because the whole point of being self-employed is choosing what you do and when. I initially tried manual trading for a couple of years, but having zero interest in most sport I found it dull and resented being tied to the clock and the calendar. That lack of interest led me to be wreckless and unfocused. I'd initially been drawn to manual trading simply because that's the only type of trading I'd been really exposed to via people like Peter. It's only when I realised I was in completely the wrong job that I did a 180 and focussed on automation for the next couple of years. It's ok, pretty much like the old day job tbh, design, analysis, coding, testing, version control blah blah blah but the commute is shorter and the coffee is better.

Take your influences from as many sources as possible and do what suits you, but try and do one thing at a time really well rather than dipping in and out of everything and doing nothing properly.
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decomez6
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Joined: Mon Oct 07, 2019 5:26 pm

ShaunWhite wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 6:58 am
decomez6 wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 4:43 am
I truely appreciate your advice.
. Everyone has to use their own strengths, interests and frankly what they actually enjoy. The novely element of trading soon wears off and you point of being self-employed is choosing what you do and when.. It's ok, pretty much like the old day job tbh, design, analysis, coding, testing, version control blah blah blah but the commute is shorter and the coffee is better.

:) and you can subtitute the GOOD old organic filter coffee with a corona beer! while i get to catch ,my` corona¬ served ON social NOT ditancing.
must be a great feeling to s see a Baby BOT , grow from light bulb moment into a green money monster, .Hope that sh!t happens to me, then i enjoy.
elofan0
Posts: 316
Joined: Fri Jan 13, 2017 4:44 pm

Great info guys ..i also like to lay when the last traded price is continuously above the betangel price .. maybe that servant can be created
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decomez6
Posts: 651
Joined: Mon Oct 07, 2019 5:26 pm

the new markers , makes its easier to visualise the ATR average true range and the VWAP . volatility is traced and tracked while congestion is highlighted, bet angel should work with boris on the corona trace and track app :)
Turbobet
Posts: 2
Joined: Mon Dec 13, 2021 6:48 pm

Hi Decomez6,

Did you ever manage to refine this bot to green up when in profit?
I have been building something similar which has had some great result but every now and then posts a big loss.
I've been trying to put a green up when in profit command in to it but it seems to miss the opportunity.
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decomez6
Posts: 651
Joined: Mon Oct 07, 2019 5:26 pm

Turbobet wrote:
Sun Jan 09, 2022 10:31 am
Hi Decomez6,

Did you ever manage to refine this bot to green up when in profit?
I have been building something similar which has had some great result but every now and then posts a big loss.
I've been trying to put a green up when in profit command in to it but it seems to miss the opportunity.
hi Turbobet

forgot about this bot ages ago !

was new in the game and had very little experience on how the market works.
in-play markets are not the easiest to green up , especially when you have more than one runners exposed . in-play delays and orders getting half matched or not matched at all ! you can be lucky and guess the trade direction right and still end up red !
the main lesson was RISK :REWARD ratio. so make sure not to jump that gun .
----fully understand the characteristics of different market types (pre off/ in-play) , its participants and the variables that are likely to dictate the price movement.

some people are Good at technical analysis (TA) , others are brilliant at Fundamental analysis (FA) , others mix the best of both worlds , Then you get cold ORDER FLOW traders.

my mistake back then , was the belief i held , thinking you can be profitable by " Trading what you see " and i looked at the screen and i saw very promising Green opportunities
.........the truth is, you can only be profitable by "Trading what you know"

and i am still learning :)
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