Hartlepool by-election

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Naffman
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To be held on 6th May and looks an absolute toss-up currently.

Despite being an area that voted 70% leave, Labour decided to put forward an anti-Brexit Candidate.

There are only 2 polls out, the first had 39-36 LAB and the second 49-42 CON

Anyone from the area or have any opinions?
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LeTiss
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Considering Labour have won every election in Hartlepool since the seat was created in 1974......it's a little surprising to see Conservatives trading at a comfortable odds-on
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Dallas
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I'd actually be surprised if the Tory's didn't win it (if it was held tomorrow)

Labour were lucky to hold it in 2016, it was only the Brexit vote and Richard Tice in particular that split the vote.

North East and Hartlepool in particular is a strong working class area, as LeTiss said its been Labour for decades but people there seem to align themselves more with Tories now than Labour, and Starmer being the leader is probably as just as big a turn off for a strong leave area than Corbyn was
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Naffman
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Dallas wrote:
Wed Apr 21, 2021 1:41 pm
I'd actually be surprised if the Tory's didn't win it (if it was held tomorrow)

Labour were lucky to hold it in 2016, it was only the Brexit vote and Richard Tice in particular that split the vote.

North East and Hartlepool in particular is a strong working class area, as LeTiss said its been Labour for decades but people there seem to align themselves more with Tories now than Labour, and Starmer being the leader is probably as just as big a turn off for a strong leave area than Corbyn was
Yes it didn't help the Tories that the most popular BXP member to stand for election stood in Hartlepool getting 26% of the vote, most of which would've probably voted Tory if he hadn't had stood.

Brexit does feel behind us now though but looking at the national polls, the Tories have maintained a general 10% cushion over Labour.

Mike Hill the former MP there has been stood down for misconduct, the current Labour elect went on a Saudi sponsored trip and has never supported Brexit, I guess it just depends how loyal the locals are to Labour/hate the Tories.
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superfrank
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He couldn't knock the skin off a rice pudding. No wonder the working classes are deserting Labour.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1388482592245231616
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Naffman
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superfrank wrote:
Sat May 01, 2021 9:23 pm
He couldn't knock the skin off a rice pudding. No wonder the working classes are deserting Labour.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1388482592245231616
His career is/should be riding on this, despite the odds saying Conservatives should win this, it definitely still feels like a free shot for them.
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Naffman
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New poll out today, Conservatives +17 !!

Tories into 1.15 and absolutely soul crushing for any Labour supporter, especially with Brexit no longer the focal point 8-)
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superfrank
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Naffman wrote:
Tue May 04, 2021 6:05 pm
New poll out today, Conservatives +17 !!

Tories into 1.15 and absolutely soul crushing for any Labour supporter, especially with Brexit no longer the focal point 8-)
Maybe having a London ultra-Remoaner as party leader wasn't such a good idea.
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Naffman
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superfrank wrote:
Tue May 04, 2021 6:16 pm
Naffman wrote:
Tue May 04, 2021 6:05 pm
New poll out today, Conservatives +17 !!

Tories into 1.15 and absolutely soul crushing for any Labour supporter, especially with Brexit no longer the focal point 8-)
Maybe having a London ultra-Remoaner as party leader wasn't such a good idea.
I would say a 5pt Tory win would be a phenomenal victory, now it looks like how far.

Poor Motty won't be happy 8-)
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superfrank
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Wallop. :D
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