US Presidential Election 2024

Betfair trading & Punting on politics. Be aware there is a lot of off topic discussion in this group centred on Political views.
Post Reply
User avatar
Derek27
Posts: 23477
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Only 44 months to go now. ;) If I remember correctly, several candidates traded below 3.0 last time, and with Betfair effectively banning customers from depositing money once they've withdrawn it I can see this market as a good way of investing funds you're not using.
Korattt
Posts: 2405
Joined: Mon Dec 21, 2015 6:46 pm

Naffman wrote:
Sat Mar 20, 2021 4:42 pm
Korattt wrote:
Sat Mar 20, 2021 4:20 pm
personally I think Meagain Markle has a great chance
Can't imagine many incumbents step aside when they have a chance for re-election so I can see why Harris/Biden are favs, but also interesting to note that Harris' approval rating is quite a bit lower than the President's.

And as I said on the 2020 thread, DeSantis looks a strong contender though the price looks fairly short now, I can't see why Haley and Pence are shorter but I admit Haley would be a good VP pick.
can see it now POTUS Markle, FGOTUS Harry with VP Oprah Winfrey in tow
rik
Posts: 1583
Joined: Sat Jan 25, 2014 5:16 am
Location: London

Think Tucker Carlson would have great support if he decided to run, very popular with the base.
User avatar
Naffman
Posts: 5626
Joined: Sun Aug 11, 2013 5:46 am

Korattt wrote:
Sun Mar 21, 2021 10:24 am
Naffman wrote:
Sat Mar 20, 2021 4:42 pm
Korattt wrote:
Sat Mar 20, 2021 4:20 pm
personally I think Meagain Markle has a great chance
Can't imagine many incumbents step aside when they have a chance for re-election so I can see why Harris/Biden are favs, but also interesting to note that Harris' approval rating is quite a bit lower than the President's.

And as I said on the 2020 thread, DeSantis looks a strong contender though the price looks fairly short now, I can't see why Haley and Pence are shorter but I admit Haley would be a good VP pick.
can see it now POTUS Markle, FGOTUS Harry with VP Oprah Winfrey in tow
Who couldn't vote for that dream team :P
rik wrote:
Sun Mar 21, 2021 10:32 am
Think Tucker Carlson would have great support if he decided to run, very popular with the base.
I just can't see it tbh, and he seems short enough at 50's
User avatar
Naffman
Posts: 5626
Joined: Sun Aug 11, 2013 5:46 am

Biden says he wants to run again in 2024 but his odds remain largely unchanged, it almost tells you what everyone thinks of his mental capability
User avatar
Realrocknrolla
Posts: 1903
Joined: Fri Jun 05, 2020 7:15 pm

Derek27 wrote:
Sat Mar 20, 2021 4:58 pm
Only 44 months to go now. ;) If I remember correctly, several candidates traded below 3.0 last time, and with Betfair effectively banning customers from depositing money once they've withdrawn it I can see this market as a good way of investing funds you're not using.
Are betfair banning from depositing then?

Have i missed something
Trader Pat
Posts: 4327
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

Realrocknrolla wrote:
Fri Mar 26, 2021 11:35 am
Derek27 wrote:
Sat Mar 20, 2021 4:58 pm
Only 44 months to go now. ;) If I remember correctly, several candidates traded below 3.0 last time, and with Betfair effectively banning customers from depositing money once they've withdrawn it I can see this market as a good way of investing funds you're not using.
Are betfair banning from depositing then?

Have i missed something

Not an outright ban but they're asking more questions.

I'm guessing if you're someone who doesn't have an account manager and you decide one day you want to deposit 5k for a big market like the election market then its going to get their attention and they might start asking for proof of income.
User avatar
Realrocknrolla
Posts: 1903
Joined: Fri Jun 05, 2020 7:15 pm

Trader Pat wrote:
Fri Mar 26, 2021 12:23 pm
Realrocknrolla wrote:
Fri Mar 26, 2021 11:35 am
Derek27 wrote:
Sat Mar 20, 2021 4:58 pm
Only 44 months to go now. ;) If I remember correctly, several candidates traded below 3.0 last time, and with Betfair effectively banning customers from depositing money once they've withdrawn it I can see this market as a good way of investing funds you're not using.
Are betfair banning from depositing then?

Have i missed something

Not an outright ban but they're asking more questions.

I'm guessing if you're someone who doesn't have an account manager and you decide one day you want to deposit 5k for a big market like the election market then its going to get their attention and they might start asking for proof of income.
Got ya... cheers Pat.

Just seen this... he is a lay all day long.

https://twitter.com/DonaldJTrumpJr/stat ... 04354?s=20
jamesg46
Posts: 3769
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:05 pm

Naffman wrote:
Fri Mar 26, 2021 8:31 am
Biden says he wants to run again in 2024 but his odds remain largely unchanged, it almost tells you what everyone thinks of his mental capability
He's had a nightmare of a time this past few weeks. Not knowing he is the President, forgetting what he's talking about mid sentence, his spat with Putin (which showed his hypocracy on the world stage), falling up the stairs of AF1 to his VP being blasted for laughing when asked about the kids and the crisis at the border. Then there is the shutdown of media coverage at the border, which only adds fuel to the fire imo.

I can't see any positives from his administration atm but it is early days... I take no delight in watching him (unlike some) but you can already predict the campaign ads from the opposition.

Not sure about 2 terms, I think it'll be a miracle if he makes it 2 years.
User avatar
Naffman
Posts: 5626
Joined: Sun Aug 11, 2013 5:46 am

jamesg46 wrote:
Fri Mar 26, 2021 2:29 pm
Naffman wrote:
Fri Mar 26, 2021 8:31 am
Biden says he wants to run again in 2024 but his odds remain largely unchanged, it almost tells you what everyone thinks of his mental capability
He's had a nightmare of a time this past few weeks. Not knowing he is the President, forgetting what he's talking about mid sentence, his spat with Putin (which showed his hypocracy on the world stage), falling up the stairs of AF1 to his VP being blasted for laughing when asked about the kids and the crisis at the border. Then there is the shutdown of media coverage at the border, which only adds fuel to the fire imo.

I can't see any positives from his administration atm but it is early days... I take no delight in watching him (unlike some) but you can already predict the campaign ads from the opposition.

Not sure about 2 terms, I think it'll be a miracle if he makes it 2 years.
He managed to hit some good approval ratings last week but who wouldn't when you hand out $1400 to everyone.

He's currently averaging about 53-54%, and I've had a look historically and a President (bar Trump obviously who never even hit 50) should be aiming for mid to high 50's in order to get re-elected (and that's the bare minimum).

Covid got him elected so it'll be interesting when the economy becomes the #1 issue again as to how effective he is.
Trader Pat
Posts: 4327
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

Realrocknrolla wrote:
Fri Mar 26, 2021 2:04 pm
Got ya... cheers Pat.

Just seen this... he is a lay all day long.

https://twitter.com/DonaldJTrumpJr/stat ... 04354?s=20

I know he said he'd run for a second term but can't see it to be honest. The next few years will be a lot for a man of his age, don't think he needs it at his stage in life.
User avatar
Realrocknrolla
Posts: 1903
Joined: Fri Jun 05, 2020 7:15 pm

Trader Pat wrote:
Fri Mar 26, 2021 3:41 pm
Realrocknrolla wrote:
Fri Mar 26, 2021 2:04 pm
Got ya... cheers Pat.

Just seen this... he is a lay all day long.

https://twitter.com/DonaldJTrumpJr/stat ... 04354?s=20

I know he said he'd run for a second term but can't see it to be honest. The next few years will be a lot for a man of his age, don't think he needs it at his stage in life.
Definitely not... he should be fishing somewhere
User avatar
Derek27
Posts: 23477
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Trader Pat wrote:
Fri Mar 26, 2021 3:41 pm
Realrocknrolla wrote:
Fri Mar 26, 2021 2:04 pm
Got ya... cheers Pat.

Just seen this... he is a lay all day long.

https://twitter.com/DonaldJTrumpJr/stat ... 04354?s=20

I know he said he'd run for a second term but can't see it to be honest. The next few years will be a lot for a man of his age, don't think he needs it at his stage in life.
He said he 'expects to be running in 4 years time. That was a fair enough answer. Deep down inside he probably knows he'll be too or maybe privately it's been decided that Kamala will run, but obviously they can't say that. It was quite daft of the reporter to compare him to DT when asking about preparing for the next election. Biden's busy running the country while all DT cared about was getting reelected.
User avatar
Derek27
Posts: 23477
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Kamala just stumbled on the single step up to the microphone, before talking about the Derek Chauvin verdict. :lol:
User avatar
Realrocknrolla
Posts: 1903
Joined: Fri Jun 05, 2020 7:15 pm

https://www.donaldjtrump.com/desk

For anyone interested.
Post Reply

Return to “Political betting & arguing”