North Shropshire by-election

Betfair trading & Punting on politics. Be aware there is a lot of off topic discussion in this group centred on Political views.
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PapaShango
Posts: 85
Joined: Thu Apr 29, 2021 2:41 pm

Do any political traders have any views on this market ?

Been a big drift on Conservative party overnight, now no longer favourites.

Current prices:

Cons… 2.04 / 2.08
Lib Dem… 1.96 / 2
Lab … 160 / 250
Reform … 160 / 920
Green … 1000
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gstar1975
Posts: 615
Joined: Thu Nov 24, 2011 11:59 am

PapaShango wrote:
Wed Dec 08, 2021 1:06 pm
Do any political traders have any views on this market ?

Been a big drift on Conservative party overnight, now no longer favourites.

Current prices:

Cons… 2.04 / 2.08
Lib Dem… 1.96 / 2
Lab … 160 / 250
Reform … 160 / 920
Green … 1000
You do need reasonably accurate polling to guide you. But this by-election looks very difficult.
Trader Pat
Posts: 4327
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

I don't know a lot about UK politics but I'm sure the Christmas party affair hasn't helped the Tories
PapaShango
Posts: 85
Joined: Thu Apr 29, 2021 2:41 pm

My own view was that I thought the Tories would win. As far as I can tell, it has always been a Tory seat. I was surprised yesterday when I read an article saying the Lib Dem’s are expecting to win.

Tories were already drifting yesterday from a very short price, and were trading around 1.5 - 1.55.

Since all the news yesterday they have now gone to evens, which is quite a drift.

There is talk of “tactical voting” , where labour and greens lend their votes to Lib Dem’s to get Boris out. However, is all this just internet / Twitter talk and just wishful thinking on Lib Dem’s part ? They say they won Chesham and Amersham with similar tactics, though it looks as if they already had a bigger base to work from there ? They were already the clear opposition in that seat.

It also relies on labour and greens lending their votes. Looking on the internet, there still seems to be a lot of bickering about who should be lending who their vote.

Maybe Reform and the other right leaning parties doing well would do more damage to the conservatives than the Lib Dem vote lending ( if it even happens ).


Just wondered if anyone had any views or poll results or anything like that ? I’m shit at political betting. I lost money on Corbyn, brexit , trump, trump again , don’t think I’ve ever backed a winner.

Current price for Conservative win is 2.02
PapaShango
Posts: 85
Joined: Thu Apr 29, 2021 2:41 pm

Been spending way too long thinking about this market ! Find it fascinating.

My first thought was how can Lib Dem’s win in a right leaning leave voting constituency. It didn’t seem possible. Though the more I look at it, the more unclear it becomes.

The Tory vote is set to collapse, but I’m unsure by how much. I think in worst case scenario, the right/left vote will be split 50/50.

Having conducted some extensive polling ( spoken to a person who lives there !! Lol ) I am of the opinion that the majority of the protest vote will go to the right. I see Reform got 6 % of the vote in the recent Bexley and Sidcup by election ( where Lib Dem’s were said to have stood down to help labour. ) . I think they will do even better in this one. And other right leaning parties will pick up votes too. The person I spoke to who usually voted Tory, won’t be , because of a hate for current government. They can’t decide whether to vote Reform or Reclaim , though it’s definitely going to be one of the Re’s !

I can see the conservative vote going to 35% in worst case scenario, with the other right leaning parties picking up the slack. Though maybe it will be 40/10.

On the left side, there is this progressive alliance , where all the left are set to vote for Lib Dem’s. On the internet, this message is fairly clear, though whether it plays out or not in reality is unclear.

There seems to be very few available polls. The internal Lib Dem poll suggest they are well ahead, the internal labour poll suggest they are. The Lib Dem’s seem to point to the betting odds as if they are reliable polls to make their case.

Speaking to someone from the area, they said the lid dem presence is fairly noticeable. They send out the most leaflets, and have stuck their signs everywhere. ( though how much difference that makes, I have no idea ). Labour haven’t stood aside, though they are apparently putting in very little effort. Very little canvassing, hardly any leaflets etc.

Greens I think will always vote green. Can’t see them voting tactically, and apparently they do well in more rural areas like Oswestry. Can see them taking 3-5 % of the vote.

So Lib Dem’s chances of winning depends on two things.

1) the right wing parties taking a lot of the conservative vote. I can see this happening. Last two elections the likes of UKIP etc more or less stood aside, as they were framed as “getting brexit done “ and “ a vote for anyone else, is a vote for Corbyn”. This time, there is no real incentive, though perhaps the now seemingly real threat of a close race, and the Lib Dem’s winning will be enough to make them think twice about their protest vote, and may help to get voters out where they would have stayed at home otherwise.

2) labour and other left leaning parties all lending their votes. This I am unsure of. They point out that it happened in Chesham and Amersham. Though by all accounts they were campaigning on the controversial HS2 issue ( though others deny that was ever really a factor). And also, this was a vote remain constituency, where as North Shropshire voted heavily to leave.

The Tory party don’t appear to be doing very much. They rarely campaign as heavily online as left leaning parties anyway. Though I am informed that they are doing things behind the scenes and in the area. I was told by someone that they have been out knocking doors, talking to residents. They have also been active on the phones, ringing up voters and basically apologising for Boris and his gangs recent shit show. Trying to ensure them that this by election is about local issues, and to try and distract away from Boris as much as possible. Though there is no doubt the recent damage he has done has been huge.


So I have come to the conclusion, that I havent got a flipping clue what I am talking about, and trading politics , whilst very interesting, is really hard, and I take my hat off to anyone who makes a living doing it.

My current feeling is still for a very narrow conservative win. I can’t buy into this Lib Dem thing, it just seems like they are the ones hyping themselves up ( which they have a history of doing so ). Personally, I would have thought a strong campaign by a non Corbyn led labour would have proved better, but Lib Dem’s are convinced they are going to be the choice of the left, and can take votes from conservatives too. I suppose if the labour vote disappears and drops to below 5% , and the other right wing parties do well enough, they will win.

I can see the conservatives scraping through with about 40-45% , though maybe it does collapse to 35, and the Lib Dem’s get in.

I really haven’t got a clue, so I’m going to trade Cheltenham instead lol

Current prices :

Cons …2.18 / 2.22
Lib Dem… 1.85 / 1.89
deestar
Posts: 178
Joined: Thu Feb 20, 2020 6:17 pm

Enjoyable post. The Con voter who simply doesn't vote, will hurt them more than those jumping ship i think.

It usually takes a lot to change someone's political stripe, but less to make a usual voter simply not bother - that's the easy protest option. Its not like the government will fall if it loses given its nationwide majority, so from a disaffected Con voter point of view, little harm done.
It would be a massive upset if they lost it given their majority, but not unprecedented in a by-election and if the last weeks (2 years?) corrupt sh*t show isn't a perfect storm I'm not sure what will be.
sionascaig
Posts: 1053
Joined: Fri Nov 20, 2015 9:38 am

Was thinking they could just not vote & do a protest vote it being a by election and all that

Dont know a single conservative voter who isn't disgusted by him - but then there was never a lot of love for johnson in scotland (amongst conservatives)...
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jamesedwards
Posts: 2234
Joined: Wed Nov 21, 2018 6:16 pm

It's fascinating. For the seat to change hands the Conservative vote would need to drop by just over 30% AND LD to get 90% of non-Tory votes.

To give you an idea how big that would be, the astonishing Lib Dem win in Chesham & Amersham was a 19.9% drop in Conservative votes and LD polling 88% of non-Tory votes.

Only twice in the last 30 years has there been a drop of over 30% in a by-election, Dudley West in 1994, and Christchurch in 1993. Both these were relatively marginal seats.

These are extraordinary times but betting markets have been very guilty of over-extrapolating social media sentiment for the last few years. I think they are falling into the same trap.

Conservative hold for me at 2.8. A win by about 1300 votes.
PapaShango
Posts: 85
Joined: Thu Apr 29, 2021 2:41 pm

Still obsessing over this market . Have barely taken my eyes off it !

Am still non the wiser as to who is going to win, though still have my gut feeling / in built bias (!) that the Tories are going to win, just. Lib Dems continue to harden as favourites, as more bad news is released.

I am probably guilty of making the classic error. That is having an opinion, and then searching for information to back that up. And whilst I still can’t bring myself to believe the Lib Dems are going to win north Shropshire, the evidence is clearly there if you look for it.

I will admit that I have been holding on to a ‘big red book ‘ now for so long I’m beginning to think I might be Michael Aspel. However, I can’t bring myself to ‘red out’ and take my losses, I’m far too stubborn, and am now unlikely to change my opinion . ( hopefully in line with the voters of north Shropshire! Lol ) . That is probably why I always do so badly in these markets, I’m just terrible at reading public sentiment.

Though I should also point out, that whilst I am facing losses, it is probably no worst than the losses from a bad horse race, or maybe being unlucky in an exchange outage. So it’s not so bad that I am desperately trying to ramp the price up, in order to close out . But it’s enough to make me sit and stare at it every day ! So I think I’m just gonna have to take my medicine, and hopefully it will teach me a lesson to stay away from these kind of markets in the future. I’ve kind of resigned myself to losing, though still have a little bit of hope to cling on to.

I dont know how people who make a living off these long term markets do it to be honest. It must be so stressful. The need to be right, the long periods of doubt and uncertainty , and the figures you must have at stake to make it worthwhile must make it very uncomfortable. At least with a horse race, if you make a bollox of it, there will be another one along in 5 or 10 minutes to try again. With these once a year, once in a lifetime markets, there really does seem extra pressure to be right.


But anyway, to try and clarify things further, and work out who is going to win this election, I have carried out some more extensive polling, and cutting edge research. Somebody I know , who lives in the area (!), has been in hospital for the last 6 months and they finally got out today. They told me that when they got home, they couldn’t open their front door, not because they had forgotten their key, but because of all the leaflets that had been delivered whilst they weren’t there.

I asked them if they would mind sorting the leaflets out, and counting them, to see which party has been busiest. They said sure, and that they would do it in the week. However, I pointed out that the election is on Thursday, and with such little data or polling available, would they mind doing it now ? To which, after some more added pressure, they finally agreed.

I have ran my data test sample (of one single house in the north Shropshire region ) on my Monte Carlo simulator to find out if it has any statistical significance, the answer came back as, probably not.

However, the Lib Dems last night released a poll ( which showed them just 1 point behind ) without even stating how they gathered the data. It is unclear whether this is from “responses on the doorstep “ or from a phone survey where somebody phones up and says “ hi , my name is x and I am conducting a survey on behalf of the Liberal Democrats , could you spare me 5 minut…….. “. It is unclear how they got their figures, though they assure people that they have definitely NOT just been plucked out of the air, and if anything , they underestimate the Lib Dem lead ( as they also did when winning Chesham and Amersham ). So if they are happy to publish that, I may as well publish mine too !

So I can tell you that the results are in, and the votes have been counted and verified. The results of the north Shropshire doorstep challenge are…

In total, there were 15 leaflets. Split as follows:

Lib Dem…. 6
Conservatives… 5
Reform…. 2
Labour… 1
Greens.. 1

Some, apparently, were more like magazines or newspapers than leaflets. And I should also add, that the internet famous, game changing, hard hitting, leaflet which showed a lonely old lady sat on her own, whilst Boris was pictured laughing at his party, did not make it into this particular letterbox. So maybe they were unable to get the delivery in on time or perhaps they couldn’t get enough of them ? If only someone would fix those god damn roads !
Archery1969
Posts: 3193
Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:25 am
Location: Newport

I imagine, if the Tories lose then Boris will be summoned by the 1922 committe and gone by xMas.

But that wont really change much as the next general election wont be until 2nd May 2024.
PapaShango
Posts: 85
Joined: Thu Apr 29, 2021 2:41 pm

So whilst the Tory party is clearly in turmoil, I still have trouble seeing quite where the Lib Dem support is coming from ? The only places I see it is on Twitter, from their own mouths ( talking about the fantastic responses they are getting on the doorstep ) and on Betfair ?

They are clearly out in force. Leafleting and canvassing, though I can’t help but wonder, to what avail? I suppose that is how advertising works. And if you stick your branding and name everywhere, the hope is that it seeps through into peoples sub conscious, and when they go to the polls, they put the x next to the name that is most familiar to them ?

By all accounts, if you ventured onto the high streets of the market towns where this seat is being contested, if you hung around for long enough, a rather gaunt looking young gentleman , either on foot or perhaps a bicycle, will approach you and ask you for 20 pence.

Most people will be thinking, what the hell is he going to do with 20p anyway? Can’t even buy a pack of space raiders anymore. However, I think the rationale behind it, is to go low, and maybe hope for more. A bit like backing a horse in running at 1.2, and if you get matched at evens, then great. Ask for 20 p, if you get it, that’s ok, if you get a quid, bonus. Need to get 50 20ps and then you can get a 10 bag.

Apparently this was a good way to get a tenner in years gone by. However, these days, with internet shopping, Covid restrictions, and the general death of the high street. You would be lucky to even see 50 people, let alone see 50 who are willing to give you 20p.

And this is the problem that I believe the canvassers and pollsters will have too.They too might be aimlessly wandering around town every day, they too may struggle to find 50 people who will give them 20 p / answer their polling questions / agree to go out and vote for them. By all accounts, it must be a very difficult place to campaign.

So with limited time, and limited resources, you would probably have to resort to knocking on doors / leafleting . And over such a large spread out area, it must make it even harder. So you are left with the choice of knocking doors and perhaps getting stuck talking to an old dear for half hour who will forget which party you are even from by the end of the conversation, or just stick a leaflet through and try and get to as many people as possible that way.

The trouble with the leaflets, in my opinion, is that hardly anyone will actually read them. Whilst peoples immunity to covid may be wavering, their immunity to leafleting must be pretty high by now. I imagine the majority just go straight into the bin ( or into the paper recycling bag if the household takes it waste management more seriously ! ).

Lib Dems are clearly throwing everything at this, and I am starting to sense that this result is just as important to them and their future, as it is to Boris and his. If they fail here, they can forget ever being taken seriously as part of the “progressive alliance”again . I would imagine that labour ( after recent events and their recent surge in the polls ) are now kicking themselves for agreeing to stand aside in this. They are after all the countries opposition party, and they didn’t do too badly in the north Shropshire region last time, especially considering that Corbyn would not have been a popular choice in the constituency. To his credit, the labour candidate, without any obvious help nationally, has carried on plugging away and is fighting for votes.

The Lib Dems have put all their resources into this. And I see that, just like others in the constituency, are now also asking people for money ! I came across it a couple of times on Twitter last night ! They aren’t going round town asking for 20 pence, but they are asking online if people will send them 25 quid and donate to the campaign !

Which made me ponder, where has all their budget gone ? Surely leaflets and sign posts can’t be that expensive can they ? I am now starting to wonder, if maybe the Lib Dem campaign budget has been blown by relentlessly backing themselves on the exchanges, and then pointing to the odds as if they show how popular they are , and posting Smarkets graphs as if they are a YouGov poll. Maybe they have taken a leaf out of the El Salvador presidents bitcoin gamble, and have decided to try and spin the campaign budget up by investing it all on themselves ! A large part of the Lib Dem campaign does seem to be based around their betting odds.

It also makes me laugh how the liberal left embrace bookmakers and betting odds when it suits their agenda . I have seen so many comments along the lines “ the bookies know “ “ the odds are never wrong “ “ we are clearly winning here”. With all the gambling review going on, mainly led and called for by those on the left, yet for about 2 weeks solid, they have bombarded their followers timelines with oddschecker screenshots, betfair markets, and various bookmakers odds. Unwittingly shilling and promoting betting, where as next week, when this is all over, they will return to calling for a blanket ban, or no advertising or bookmaker branding to be allowed !

The Lib Dems have also been sending their so called “ big guns “ into north Shropshire on an almost daily basis. Train in, obligatory selfie with the young canvassing team, knock a few doors, 3 hour pub lunch, few more doors, another selfie, post Smarkets screenshot, then back on the train to Guildford or wherever and home in time for newsnight . I obviously jest, I’m sure there is far more to it than that, and they are all working tirelessly !

But the trouble for me, is like the proverbial fallen tree in the woods. If Ed Davey was in Whitchurch, and there was nobody there to see him, was Ed Davey ever really in Whitchurch ?! Well the answer to that, is probably no, unless you decided to log on to Twitter later that evening and see . And even then, I imagine if you said to somebody “ Ed Davey was in Whitchurch today”. They would probably turn round and say “ who is Ed Davey ?! “. I know the labour front bench aren’t exactly political titans, though at least they have some household names amongst them. I still think they would have been better positioned to challenge, though I guess when this seat came up, nobody would have foreseen the importance of it, especially not captain hindsight.

And that includes the Tories too. I am now having serious doubts over their candidate. The original tactic was for him to be very low profile, they seemed to want to keep him hidden away, and just use him where it matters. Perhaps they too never expected this election to take such significance. The thing counting against him, is that he is not local . The other candidates have all been very quick to jump on this, and apparently, it is an issue.

I can exclusively reveal, that ONE (!) lifetime Tory voter, will not be turning out on Thursday. The reason, because the candidate is not from Shropshire. They can’t bring themselves to vote for someone who isn’t local. From what I read, the outgoing Owen Paterson had as many houses as he had jobs, and even his Shropshire home was apparently in the more affluent south of the county. Which, by all accounts, is so awkward to get to , that it would actually be quicker to get to Birmingham anyway !

But apparently it’s a deal breaker, and they are refusing to vote. I think if they had their time again, they may have thought more carefully about their candidate, rather than just go Army guy, tick, Nhs guy , tick. It appears that the local issue is a big one for some people.

And then there is also the problem of Owen Paterson. Owen seems to have left a turd not only in the upstairs bathroom, but in the downstairs toilet too. As there is seemingly an equal amount of voters who have been lost, half because they are appalled by his behaviour and what he did. And the other half, who actually had a lot of respect for him, are appalled by the way he has been treated by the party, and are refusing to vote on those grounds.

I still don’t know what to make of all this. The market is now screaming Lib Dems, and maybe if I was to apply occams razor, with the expected low Tory turn out , potential high left leaning turn out, all the Tory problems, the betting markets, then it should be obvious that they are going to win.

Though I guess I’m blind to it, and have once again failed to read the room! It now seems obvious that the Tory vote is still going to be well down. Though I still can’t see it dropping below 5 figures. Maybe it does though. But if it doesn’t, then I still think the Lib Dems have work to do, I still think they will need all of the lefts vote, and as things stand at present, I’m not totally convinced they get it, and then even if they do, I’m still not totally convinced it will be enough.

I’m just hoping that whilst the Lib Dems have been busy dashing round the various towns and country side, picking up 20 pence pieces, and maybe perhaps the odd quid, that the Tories have been busy operating at a more wholesale level. Going round picking up fivers and tenners, talking to institutions, groups, clubs and places where they know they can get a block of votes out, rather than the odd few.

Apparently, it will be the farmers who decide it. If they stay loyal and vote, they have the resources and numbers to change this. If they don’t, then maybe Tories are in real big trouble. They don’t seem to have given up, and do appear to be fighting it. They are definitely seemingly getting busier. Though I am unsure whether this is tactics, not throwing everything at the campaign until the last week, or panic, maybe having to throw more at it than they first expected due to the events of the last week?

Still no idea. Though can’t wait until Thursday to find out !

Current prices:

Lib Dems… 1.52 / 1.56
Cons…. 2.88/ 2.9
Labour…. 160 / 260
Reform…. 500
Greens…. 1000
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jamesedwards
Posts: 2234
Joined: Wed Nov 21, 2018 6:16 pm

Archery1969 wrote:
Sun Dec 12, 2021 4:08 pm
I imagine, if the Tories lose then Boris will be summoned by the 1922 committe and gone by xMas.

But that wont really change much as the next general election wont be until 2nd May 2024.
There's a market for that. I don't see it myself. 13.0 available.
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jamesedwards
Posts: 2234
Joined: Wed Nov 21, 2018 6:16 pm

PapaShango wrote:
Sun Dec 12, 2021 2:33 pm
... I’m just terrible at reading public sentiment.
Visible public sentiment has become much easier to read over the last 10 years due to the explosion of social media, and it's obvious that markets appear to be more and more influenced by it. The problem is that social media represents only a portion of the whole demographic. It's used more by the young than the old, and opinion offered more by the left than the right. In my opinion this is likely why we have seen the run of unexpected results in the last few years, eg US elections, UK elections, Brexit etc.

I actually went green on Lib Dem early on, triggered by social media sentiment. But then I took a step back, drilled into the numbers, looked back on recent precedents, and now I'm heavy green on a Conservative hold.
PapaShango
Posts: 85
Joined: Thu Apr 29, 2021 2:41 pm

I only really started looking when it was around 1.55, hadn’t even given it much thought before then to be honest. Then after the reading the article made the mistake of putting a bet on, then been glued to the market ever since. It is interesting though, I get why people are into it. Tv vote betting, politics, long term specials stuff like that. But it’s definitely not for me lol

The trouble is, there isn’t much a data about , and all the info is on Twitter, though there has been quite a few news reports recently and stuff like that too. Felt sorry for some of the people filmed. The people trying to beckon them over from the dark side soon turned very nasty once a resident, often elderly, signalled an intention they might vote Tory. They were instantly vilified and made into a meme and the comments were quite frankly disgusting.

I fear for what are, for now, the good people of north Shropshire. For if they do dare to vote blue on Thursday, then please, whatever you do, do not turn on Twitter !

I’m not putting any more bets on, it’s too close to call, neither result would surprise me to ne honest.

Well , I still can’t have the lid dems ,but I’m just expecting to be wrong now . My extensive polling research ( single phone call !) did suggest that to be fair to the local lid Dem candidate, she had got her local message across, I think there will be many who have said they will, and probably will “vote Helen” without even knowing, or caring that they are voting Lib Dem .

The tories meanwhile will probably be hoping that the 5 day weather forecast, which is apparently never accurate, is accurate.
Archery1969
Posts: 3193
Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:25 am
Location: Newport

jamesedwards wrote:
Sun Dec 12, 2021 6:12 pm
Archery1969 wrote:
Sun Dec 12, 2021 4:08 pm
I imagine, if the Tories lose then Boris will be summoned by the 1922 committe and gone by xMas.

But that wont really change much as the next general election wont be until 2nd May 2024.
There's a market for that. I don't see it myself. 13.0 available.
Personally, I think thats worth a punt, things go badly on Thursday/Friday and you could well see Sir Graham Brady popping into No 10 for a chat, when that happens, we all know what comes next.
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