2022 Australian Election

Betfair trading & Punting on politics. Be aware there is a lot of off topic discussion in this group centred on Political views.
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Naffman
Posts: 5626
Joined: Sun Aug 11, 2013 5:46 am

Is tomorrow I believe

Labor 1.54
Coalition 2.86

I know the polls were wrong last time but I Labor should win this, any other thoughts especially from those in Aus?
Galilee66
Posts: 222
Joined: Thu Apr 16, 2009 5:07 am

It should be a very interesting election count. The mathematics say that labor should win, as the Liberals need to hold every seat they currently have and gain a couple. It looks as though labor will gain one in WA and probably one in Victoria, but it is very diffcult to read how people will cast their vote. After the last election which provided Morrison with a surprise victory various so- called "quiet Australians" were asked what swayed them to vote for Morrison. One woman from Toowoomba told the interviewer that she had voted for Morrison because he had a lovely wife and 2 beautiful daughters!!! Now I understand that people will vote for a particular party for a number of reasons, but I wouild hope that those reasons transcend those of the woman from Toowoomba.

Morrison is not liked much (in fact, in Melbourne where I live he is despised) and Albanese the Labor leader appears decent enough but is uninspiring. The Liberals are confronting that old difficulty that all Governments that hvve been in power for a long time confront. That is, that any Governement - regardless of which party - inevitably alienates various sections of the community simply by making the decisions that are required to be made in the course of governing. Morrison's personal style probably hasn't helped in this regard either. One other factor is the emergence of well organised and well funded independents - all women - usually highly qualifed professionals who have gathered huge supporter bases and volunteers. They are all mostly disilusioned Liberals who are running on two issues - the need to act on climate change and the need for an integrity commission at the federal level. Their presence will make it difficult for the Liberals as they are all running against sitting liberal members. Morrison also has a very low approval rate among women. It is impossible to forecast which of them will win - for example there are high hopes that the Independent running against the Federal Treasurer. She is a Paediatric Neurosurgeon and has run an impressive campaign. However, from my amateur psephological assessment i would think that Zali Steggal (the independent who beat Tony Abbot last election) will win again and perhaps Zoe Daniel in Goldstein will win. All the others have uphill tasks - but if a really big swing develops anything could happen. The Liberals have waged a desperate campaign against the independents claiming that their election threatens democracy. I vigorously disagree with that argument as I believe that increasing the number of independents in the parliament actually reinvigorates the democratic process. The real problem with the two party system is that the "winner takes all.". The introduction of independents into a hung parliament means that the winning party is forced to negotiate with a strong crossbench and that process improves the democratic process.

Anyway, it looks as though Labor will win - but the margin will dpend on where the votes fall in partucular seats.

hope this helps.

regards from Melbourne.
Gslilee66
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Naffman
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Thanks Galilee, very thorough analysis!

As you say Morrison’s approval got him over the line last time (he was averaging 3+ on election week), now he’s 15-20pts lower. Albanese although not amazingly well liked he’s definitely more popular than Shorten was.
Lutruwita
Posts: 544
Joined: Sun Apr 26, 2015 12:54 pm

Labor at $1.50 is well overs. Took $1k about that. Should be $1.20. The market is spooked by last election, but then polls were 49-51, now they are 47-53.
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Derek27
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Location: UK

Like when Barack Obama became president, it sounds like a milestone if somebody who grew up on a council estate has become PM. But how bad are things in Australia if having a single mother is significant? I don't think it would be in the UK.
Lutruwita
Posts: 544
Joined: Sun Apr 26, 2015 12:54 pm

Derek27 wrote:
Sun May 22, 2022 12:19 am
Like when Barack Obama became president, it sounds like a milestone if somebody who grew up on a council estate has become PM. But how bad are things in Australia if having a single mother is significant? I don't think it would be in the UK.
There's not many 'council estates' or pubic housing in Australia. Only a few % of housing stock.

I don't think being the child of a single mother is significant - it is more playing to the 'battler' or 'underdog' tag. There's a bizarre fascination in Australia of people talking about how much they 'battle' or how poor their background was etc as if it was a moral virtue. I don't know if it is the same in the UK. Even your dual income family, with a 4x2 bedroom house, kids in a private school, two mercedes 4wd, and a boat will complain about doing it tough.
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gazuty
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Location: Green land :)

Aarondewit wrote:
Sun May 22, 2022 2:40 am
There's a bizarre fascination in Australia of people talking about how much they 'battle' or how poor their background was etc as if it was a moral virtue. I don't know if it is the same in the UK. Even your dual income family, with a 4x2 bedroom house, kids in a private school, two mercedes 4wd, and a boat will complain about doing it tough.
Yep, a lot of voting for "luxury beliefs" on display yesterday in wealthy electorates in Melbourne and Sydney. If you want to read more about luxury beliefs see https://quillette.com/2019/11/16/thorst ... us-update/
Galilee66 wrote:
Fri May 20, 2022 1:58 pm
Morrison is not liked much (in fact, in Melbourne where I live he is despised) and Albanese the Labor leader appears decent enough but is uninspiring. The Liberals are confronting that old difficulty that all Governments that hvve been in power for a long time confront. T
A very good analysis Galilee. Kudos. Dislike of Morrison was a clear factor (perhaps the clearest factor, particularly for the result in the Teal electorates).

///

Gazuty's take on the result.

This election was no overwhelming victory for Labor, who might not win the 76+ seats for a majority. In my view the result was more a vote against the incumbent than a swing for change (in fact the major parties largely cloned each others' main policies and neither presented a bold agenda). The low primary vote for both parties is a long term issue. Perhaps a new "third force" will arise or perphaps we are witnessing the beggining of the great flip.

In any case the people have spoken, all those eligible to vote had an opportunity to have a say and the whole process is open and transparent.
Archery1969
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Location: Newport

I read an article about Australaia saying that in 10 years time most parts wont be inhabitable because of fires and floods due to climate change as people wont be able to get insurance. Scary. :o
Wildly
Posts: 229
Joined: Wed Nov 28, 2012 7:31 am
Location: Australia

gazuty wrote:
Sun May 22, 2022 4:27 am
Aarondewit wrote:
Sun May 22, 2022 2:40 am
There's a bizarre fascination in Australia of people talking about how much they 'battle' or how poor their background was etc as if it was a moral virtue. I don't know if it is the same in the UK. Even your dual income family, with a 4x2 bedroom house, kids in a private school, two mercedes 4wd, and a boat will complain about doing it tough.
Yep, a lot of voting for "luxury beliefs" on display yesterday in wealthy electorates in Melbourne and Sydney. If you want to read more about luxury beliefs see https://quillette.com/2019/11/16/thorst ... us-update/
Those electorates have always been in a position to vote to be less selfish, yet only now are they doing so.

It's not about the vanity implicit in the "luxury benefits" theory, the tens of thousands in wealthy electorates who have changed their vote won't receive that kind of superficial individual recognition.

Society has moved further to the right for decades. This may mark a time when people said "enough, that's too far". Plus we have to act on the climate crisis.
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