US Presidential Election 2024

Betfair trading & Punting on politics. Be aware there is a lot of off topic discussion in this group centred on Political views.
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Derek27
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Trump back on Twitter, all thanks to Naffman!
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Naffman
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Trump cannot stop drifting, out to 3.8 in GOP nominee market and Biden continuing to shorten, now into 1.78 as its looking increasingly likely he runs, why else would you want to change the first primary voting state to SC, the state that started his primary comeback in 2020
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Derek27
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Trump out to 7.6.
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Naffman
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Derek27 wrote:
Thu Dec 08, 2022 6:43 pm
Trump out to 7.6.
He's gone, and it's amazing to think he was odds-on a month ago :shock:

Massive money on Biden for Dem nominee now, into almost 1/2
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Derek27
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Criminal charges against Trump over the Capitol Hill riots looking more likely. :D
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Derek27
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What is the point of these Capitol Hill hearings that conclude the obvious, when the Justice Department has the sole responsibility and discretion to press charges and anyone in the department with half a brain knows that he's guilty, never mind deserving of facing charges? :roll:
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Naffman
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Trump LTP 12.0 for President, surprised this moved the market so much tbh as its really up to the DOJ whether they want to prosecute or not and not the J6 committee.

RdS is looking good but unbackable at those odds, definitely worth having a bit on some GOP outsiders whilst Trump is still taking up a big portion of the book %
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Derek27
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Naffman wrote:
Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:06 am
Trump LTP 12.0 for President, surprised this moved the market so much tbh as its really up to the DOJ whether they want to prosecute or not and not the J6 committee.

RdS is looking good but unbackable at those odds, definitely worth having a bit on some GOP outsiders whilst Trump is still taking up a big portion of the book %
I was waiting for Trump to get even shorter than he was before getting involved but I missed the boat. I don't think he's entirely out of it. He could be in court on the day of the election and still win it!
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Naffman
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Derek27 wrote:
Tue Dec 20, 2022 11:29 am
Naffman wrote:
Tue Dec 20, 2022 10:06 am
Trump LTP 12.0 for President, surprised this moved the market so much tbh as its really up to the DOJ whether they want to prosecute or not and not the J6 committee.

RdS is looking good but unbackable at those odds, definitely worth having a bit on some GOP outsiders whilst Trump is still taking up a big portion of the book %
I was waiting for Trump to get even shorter than he was before getting involved but I missed the boat. I don't think he's entirely out of it. He could be in court on the day of the election and still win it!
I feel like RdS would win the primary if held today, as long as there aren’t 10+ people running but even then I think they’d all drop out to stop Trump from winning. Anyone serious about running wouldn’t announce 2 years prior, but I agree if you haven’t laid him before I probably wouldn’t lay him at 4/1 for the nomination especially as you have to tie your money up for so long.
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Archangel
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Not sure what Trumps tax returns tell us other than the fact his wealth fluctuates a lot, seems to incur a lot of losses overall to be a failure as a businessman!

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... -committee
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Derek27
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Archangel wrote:
Sat Dec 31, 2022 5:13 pm
Not sure what Trumps tax returns tell us other than the fact his wealth fluctuates a lot, seems to incur a lot of losses overall to be a failure as a businessman!

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... -committee
It certainly won't help his chances of re-election. :D

Such numbers reflect heavy business losses and undermine Trump’s self-perpetuated narrative of commercial wealth and success – a crucial part of his brand during his successful 2016 campaign.
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Derek27
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Republicans, despite their majority, can't elect a speaker. :)
Archery1969
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The American tax system is nuts but a good screw if you know what your doing or can afford to pay someone else to do it for you.

Your allowed to claim a whole heap of stuff as losses even if you took a massive income which translates into paying allot less in taxes.

In effect you can live like a king but look poor on paper.

Don’t forget the guy at PWC who’s only job is to make sure the sultan of Brunei pays minimal taxes in multiple jurisdictions around the world. He has allot of assets in the USA but on paper earns peanuts there.
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Naffman
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Derek27 wrote:
Wed Jan 04, 2023 9:16 pm
Republicans, despite their majority, can't elect a speaker. :)
The problem for Republicans going into 2024 is that their wing of the party are much more vocal and nuts than the Democrat one
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Derek27
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I think I can see what the problem is now. The Democrats won't vote for a senator that doesn't denounce the election lies and a small number of Republicans won't either. :D
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