Excuses, Excuses, Excuses

Betfair trading & Punting on politics. Be aware there is a lot of off topic discussion in this group centred on Political views.
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ForFolksSake
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firlandsfarm wrote:
Thu Sep 04, 2025 2:30 pm
There could be a bigger problem for Liebour over the horizon re Rayner. Starmer can sack her from Housing Minister and remove the post of Deputy Prime Minister but it's questionable he would be able to appoint someone else to the post while she remains Deputy Leader of Labour Party (DLLP) ... he has no power/control over the post of DLLP. It is an elected appointment by it's members. So unless she resigns (can't see someone as ambitious as her doing that!) or they call an election (I don't know the process for that and no guarantee the Left would abandon her) she can continue as DLLP and as such could be a constant pain on Party matters and even stand for Party Leadership (Prime Minister!) if Starmer is challenged!
...'unfortunately' we are stuck with them all for another 3 and 1/2 years
... and just to rub it in they are proposing to introduce a 'wealth' tax on properties

Like the 'Tories' they will never be forgiven
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firlandsfarm
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ForFolksSake wrote:
Thu Sep 04, 2025 2:37 pm
...'unfortunately' we are stuck with them all for another 3 and 1/2 years
... and just to rub it in they are proposing to introduce a 'wealth' tax on properties
I know, to tax illiquid assets is crazy ... what if people don't have the liquid assets to pay the tax on the illiquid ones? And having to sell an illiquid asset could give rise to other taxes (CGT).
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Euler
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I was trying to teach somebody about wealth taxes the other night.

They were of the opinion that 'the rich' should pay a wealth tax to help.

My dad bought his house for £5k with a mortgage many years ago 1960's I think and still lived there till he died. It rose in value to £500k so he is considered wealthy, but didn't have a penny to his name. He wasn't weathly by any means and didn't want to leave his house.

Most people don't realise a wealth tax is basically a tax on unearned income or an unrealised gain.

If you were an MP a wealth tax would work the following way.

You earn £100k a year as an MP. Taxman reckons you will have a 20 year career. So your lifetime earnings will be £2m. Therefore you are' wealthy' in terms of future earnings and qualify for, say a 2% tax of £40k a year. But you already pay a lot of tax already, so your current earnings are impacted by your future earnings. Wealth taxes are based on valuations, not actual realisable income. You get sacked as an MP a year later, lets say for not paying the correct amount of stamp duty. The taxman doesn't care that their valuation was wrong, you don't get a refund.

If you own stocks, a business or anything that has a valuation, introducing a tax on that, just kills it stone dead.

This is the mistake people calling for it make. It's not a tax on some money under the matress, it's a tax on something that doesn't exist yet.
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ForFolksSake
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firlandsfarm wrote:
Thu Sep 04, 2025 3:58 pm
ForFolksSake wrote:
Thu Sep 04, 2025 2:37 pm
...'unfortunately' we are stuck with them all for another 3 and 1/2 years
... and just to rub it in they are proposing to introduce a 'wealth' tax on properties
I know, to tax illiquid assets is crazy ... what if people don't have the liquid assets to pay the tax on the illiquid ones? And having to sell an illiquid asset could give rise to other taxes (CGT).
Wealth tax on properties over £1.5M+ when you die
and National Property tax ( in place of Stamp Duty ) on £500K+ when you sell

...it's coming in Autumn budget
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Euler
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They should rename it a Southern and South East tax. Difficult to buy a family home for less than £500k here if you want to live somewhere near a decent job.
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firlandsfarm
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ForFolksSake wrote:
Thu Sep 04, 2025 4:15 pm
Wealth tax on properties over £1.5M+ when you die
and National Property tax ( in place of Stamp Duty ) on £500K+ when you sell

...it's coming in Autumn budget
including business assets ... and farmers!!!

Here is the guts of a letter to the DT back in April from someone at the sharp end. a wealth creator ... a business owner.

'The business has 10 staff ... profits pre Reeves c.£100k ... increases in NI and business rates c.£60k ... therefore business will not buy new forklift ... Government won't get £15k VAT ... nor income tax on driver's salary ... reduced Corporation tax from lower profits ... when tax take slows/reduces the answer will be to increase taxes! ... lunacy'

They can't see beyond "increase tax rates must equal increase tax take", they can't think it through. Look at the number of wealthy people who have exited the country in the last 9 months and the tax take lost there ... not just on their income and assets but also their spending. I doubt they play chess, they can't think beyond the next move.
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Euler
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I saw some MP, can't remember which saying, yes but even in the US they have property tax.

My friend moved to Texas many years ago and pays no state income tax, capital gains tax, or inheritance tax. VAT is 6.25%.

OK you have federal taxes, but even then inheritance tax is only over $13.6m, doubled if you are married.

My view having spent much time in the US is that it has a huge compeitive advantage over many other countries. But one of the reasons why is that states individually compete for business and individuals to live in their state. So people get a choice of lifestyles, systems and goverments (to an extent).

So that really drives decision making and offers alternatives for those that don't like the way their state is being run. In the US, states compete for your personal and commercial business.
sionascaig
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Euler wrote:
Thu Sep 04, 2025 8:29 pm

So that really drives decision making and offers alternatives for those that don't like the way their state is being run. In the US, states compete for your personal and commercial business.
Sounds like an advert for Scottish independence !

I suspect if Scotland ever got independence two priorities would be : joining the EU & reducing corp taxation. Not sure if it could cope with the flood of English businesses as they move operations to Scotland though !

PS: not looking for a debate on the merits independence - just stirring the pot a bit )

Agree competition is healthy though !
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ForFolksSake
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sionascaig wrote:
Fri Sep 05, 2025 8:25 am
Euler wrote:
Thu Sep 04, 2025 8:29 pm

So that really drives decision making and offers alternatives for those that don't like the way their state is being run. In the US, states compete for your personal and commercial business.
Sounds like an advert for Scottish independence !

I suspect if Scotland ever got independence two priorities would be : joining the EU & reducing corp taxation. Not sure if it could cope with the flood of English businesses as they move operations to Scotland though !

PS: not looking for a debate on the merits independence - just stirring the pot a bit )

Agree competition is healthy though !
I suspect if Scotland ever got independence ...
Surely, that's dead and buried now
Not sure if it could cope with the flood of English businesses as they move operations to Scotland though
The only place English businesses are moving to at the mo is Dubai - 0% CT

Hence why Government Bonds are 5.75% - highest since 1998
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Euler
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I suspect if Scotland ever got independence ...
If you look at Wales and Scotland both appear to be going down the route of more taxation and spending, even more than the UK goverment in general. So that haven't and seemingly don't want to grasp the potential advantage. Despite getting more and more concessions they still keep blaming westminster. It's indepedance at any cost as all the problems are clearly somebody else's fault. Politicians trying to make history and to hell with the consequences.

However, look at Ireland. Massive rebound from 2008 crisis and now with a very high GDP per capita, above Switzerland.
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Euler
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Hence why Government Bonds are 5.75% - highest since 1998
Bond markets are taking fright at the inability of the goverment to make even modest cuts. They need to cut costs.

Everybody expected a bit more after Covid and higher taxes, but the goverment has added on half a trillion in cost since then. It's insane.
sionascaig
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ForFolksSake wrote:
Fri Sep 05, 2025 11:01 am
I suspect if Scotland ever got independence ...
Surely, that's dead and buried now
Not sure if it could cope with the flood of English businesses as they move operations to Scotland though
The only place English businesses are moving to at the mo is Dubai - 0% CT

Hence why Government Bonds are 5.75% - highest since 1998
Indie polls still 50/50... That is a lot of folk... Not sure how it will get back on the table though..

Was reading an interesting article arguing for 0% corp tax in UK. The argument went:

- already relatively low corp tax take given all the avoidance
- replace with a "very low" annual "fixed fee" related to turnover (through registering to do business in UK)
- something like no fee if turnover <350,000pa, £500 if turnover 500,000, £1000 1,000,000 etc
- design so that take is c£10bn
- the shortfall is than picked up by getting the companies to pay dividends net of basic tax
- individual then can claim back any tax due from HMRC

I particularly like it as it would mean that offshore trusts like the one set up by David Cameron would have to disclose who the beneficiaries are before getting any tax back )

And the huge benefit for companies is that they no longer need complex legal structures, tax avoiding accounting practices, "expert" tax advice etc.... The companies would save a fortune.... Win win win...
sionascaig
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Euler wrote:
Fri Sep 05, 2025 11:49 am
I suspect if Scotland ever got independence ...
If you look at Wales and Scotland both appear to be going down the route of more taxation and spending, even more than the UK goverment in general. So that haven't and seemingly don't want to grasp the potential advantage. Despite getting more and more concessions they still keep blaming westminster. It's indepedance at any cost as all the problems are clearly somebody else's fault. Politicians trying to make history and to hell with the consequences.

However, look at Ireland. Massive rebound from 2008 crisis and now with a very high GDP per capita, above Switzerland.
Spot on...
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firlandsfarm
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Rayner resigns from Government and as Deputy Leader of Labour Party.
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jamesedwards
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firlandsfarm wrote:
Fri Sep 05, 2025 12:12 pm
Rayner resigns from Government and as Deputy Leader of Labour Party.
As much as I am glad to see the back of her, I absolutely hate the way politicians are hounded out for discrepancies that are completely irrelevant to their ability to perform.

This country needs a greater pool of political ability, not less.

Who in their right mind would choose politics over a senior private sector career nowadays? And yet we rely on these people to oversee our £2.5tn economy.
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