US Presidential Election 2016

Betfair trading & Punting on politics. Be aware there is a lot of off topic discussion in this group centred on Political views.
Post Reply
User avatar
Euler
Posts: 24701
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

LeTiss 4pm wrote:That is where the anger started Peter, it just happen to coincide with the financial crash
I think people were happy to accept it, as it didn't feel like it was really having any impact on them.
User avatar
workpeter
Posts: 165
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 8:29 pm

Like him or not, this is why trump is good for UK.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... ITAIN.html.

Rrmember Obama said UK would join the back of the queue?!
Zenyatta
Posts: 1143
Joined: Thu Mar 11, 2010 4:17 pm

Result definitely supports my claim that the political outcomes are mainly based on personality rather policies - and the most likeable (or least unlikeable) candidate will (almost) always win.

Also fully confirms Peter's 'reality TV' theory - the candidate that is the most relatable is generally the one that simply amuses people the most and gets the most attention.

For every political market in the future, simply ask yourselves these two questions:

(1) Who is the most likeable candidate (or if neither are likeable, who is the least unlikeable)?

(2) Who is the best reality TV candidate - who amuses people the most and gets the most attention?

The answers to (1) and (2) will pick the winner every single time.

And of course in this case, the answer to (1) was Trump, and the answer to (2) was Trump as well.
Zenyatta
Posts: 1143
Joined: Thu Mar 11, 2010 4:17 pm

Euler wrote:What happens next: -

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/tobias-st ... 79774.html

I agree with the general thrust. In 2004 somebody I know forecast 2008 and then said that will lead to a rise in the right wing isolationist policies and probably a war somewhere. With the West Weakened, it would probably come from expansionism from Russia or China. He has read it like a book so far!!
This 'somebody I know' sounds like a genius - the 'JollyGreen of politics' perhaps? ;)

I've definitely got a bad vibe about the future after reading that - I agree - I really think something big is going down and likely it's all going to 'hit the fan' within the next decade.

Keep your eye on the ball of technological development also, since new technologies are a major disruptive force in history that can completely change the ball-game in very unexpected ways!

In particular, keep your eye on the ball of artificial intelligence and robotics here, something that's now enjoying a very big surge of progress but is currently still just below the radar of public consciousness !

Powerful forces are converging towards an explosive, rock 'em, shock 'em outcome!
User avatar
Euler
Posts: 24701
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

Technology is always the joker in the pack that economists forget about.

Back in the mid 90's I was evangelising about the Internet. How it would transform industries, reduce the supply chain, allow people to watch TV on phones and the like. All utterly dismissed by everybody as a fad and would never happen. But most of that was just from incumbents and people with a vested interest. Advances in technology are nearly always disruptive.

I invested in a number of Internet companies and joined one, but I was too early and never really made much despite predicting it. But it's clear what new trends will emerge in the near and further future.

For example, 3D printing will demolish mass manufacturing as the costs of manufacture scale down to an individual on demand. Bound to have an effect on China and similar economies. But, hopefully, by then China will have shifted to a consumer / service based economy.

What would happen if they finally manage to sort out nuclear fusion.
User avatar
Euler
Posts: 24701
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

So it appears Nigel Farage and Piers Morgan hold the balance of power in the UK now. Who would have guessed it! :lol:
User avatar
workpeter
Posts: 165
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 8:29 pm

Euler wrote:So it appears Nigel Farage and Piers Morgan hold the balance of power in the UK now. Who would have guessed it! :lol:
My Farage, the man who got his party 3.8 million votes, holds a special relationship with the next US president and our unelected prime minister Theresa May still wants to shut him out. :roll:

Trump isn't very popular in the UK, which i think she is pandering too, which makes me think her foresight is very short. long term we need good trade deals, which means she needs to get out the lipstick.
User avatar
3virgul14
Posts: 84
Joined: Wed May 26, 2010 8:28 am
Contact:

Euler wrote:Technology is always the joker in the pack that economists forget about.

.

What would happen if they finally manage to sort out nuclear fusion.

I hear that`s very close now , being scaled down to a truck dorsey theoretically..
From there wouldn`t take too long for consumer usage.. That will be another game changer as internet was and is still.
User avatar
LeTiss
Posts: 5386
Joined: Fri May 08, 2009 6:04 pm

Euler wrote:So it appears Nigel Farage and Piers Morgan hold the balance of power in the UK now. Who would have guessed it! :lol:
You may laugh Peter, but considering Farage was never elected as an MP, he will go down in history as one of the most influential UK politicans over the past 50 years!

He changed the UK, and changed the thought process of many. He stood up single handedly to establishments and bureaucrats, he gave working class people the belief that they were being listened to, their fears were understood, and their vote counted.

I will always consider Nigel Farage as the greatest Prime Minister we never had
User avatar
ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

LeTiss 4pm wrote: I will always consider Nigel Farage as the greatest Prime Minister we never had
I can't believe City boy Farage managed to pull the wool over so many people's eyes...'champion of the working class eh'? lol He would have sided with anyone who'd help him get the power and money he always wanted....and look where he is now. Job done, and all at the expense of the UK economy which will not be good in the next 5yrs for the people he pretended to represent.
User avatar
to75ne
Posts: 2413
Joined: Wed Apr 22, 2009 5:37 pm

ShaunWhite wrote:
LeTiss 4pm wrote: I will always consider Nigel Farage as the greatest Prime Minister we never had
I can't believe City boy Farage managed to pull the wool over so many people's eyes...'champion of the working class eh'? lol He would have sided with anyone who'd help him get the power and money he always wanted....and look where he is now. Job done, and all at the expense of the UK economy which will not be good in the next 5yrs for the people he pretended to represent.
there is a lot of truth in that but, the eu, globalised markets, big corporations have left many working class people behind.

it would seem that a lot of working people have derived little or nothing from the uk being in the eu, and decided they have nothing to lose by getting out of the eu.

maybe they will win by being of out the eu and the metropolitan big city/london types will lose.

leaving the eu as given them hope that they will get a fairer crack of the whip for a change.
User avatar
gazuty
Posts: 2547
Joined: Sun Jun 26, 2011 11:03 am
Location: Green land :)

It was all set out in this article Euler found.

viewtopic.php?f=49&t=12297&p=104048&hil ... ed#p104048
User avatar
ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

to75ne wrote: it would seem that a lot of working people have derived little or nothing from the uk being in the eu
There's no doubt the great unwashed needed a champion, but it's proof of how dismal the socialists have been when they feel better represented by two right-leaning arch capitalists.
User avatar
superfrank
Posts: 2762
Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2009 8:28 pm

A snowflake reacts with typical grace to their new democratically elected president’s inauguration...
https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/822514006518853632
User avatar
marksmeets302
Posts: 527
Joined: Thu Dec 10, 2009 4:37 pm

Post Reply

Return to “Political betting & arguing”