US Presidential Election 2016

Betfair trading & Punting on politics. Be aware there is a lot of off topic discussion in this group centred on Political views.
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ShaunWhite
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Crazyskier wrote:
We live in a democracy where the needs, wants and desires of the vocal few must never outweigh those of the silent majority!
I agree to a point Crazyskier but given the outcomes on offer lately, I preferred the silent majority when they were silent. ;)

The (other) problem with democracy is that so few people turn out to vote. There's never been an election or referendum where 50%+ of the country voted for the proposal that's on the table (unless any political geeks out there can correct me).

I just hope everyone can get back to being dignified and friendly (British values?). Not just with 'our own kind' but with everybody.
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Naffman
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Would think Australia would be above 50%, given you get a fine if you don't turn up :lol: But I don't have the stats :)
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gazuty
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Location: Green land :)

Naffman wrote:Would think Australia would be above 50%, given you get a fine if you don't turn up :lol: But I don't have the stats :)
Over 90% in Australia.

Although the hand wringing in this article would have you think crisis http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/ ... qnij2.html
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Euler
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What happens next: -

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/tobias-st ... 79774.html

I agree with the general thrust. In 2004 somebody I know forecast 2008 and then said that will lead to a rise in the right wing isolationist policies and probably a war somewhere. With the West Weakened, it would probably come from expansionism from Russia or China. He has read it like a book so far!!
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ShaunWhite
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Naffman wrote:Would think Australia would be above 50%, given you get a fine if you don't turn up :lol: But I don't have the stats :)
I should have clarified that our version of democracy has never delivered over 50%. The Aussie system should be implemented here, or the no-shows should be taken as a vote for the status quo if it's on the ticket.
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LeTiss
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Euler wrote:What happens next: -

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/tobias-st ... 79774.html

I agree with the general thrust. In 2004 somebody I know forecast 2008 and then said that will lead to a rise in the right wing isolationist policies and probably a war somewhere. With the West Weakened, it would probably come from expansionism from Russia or China. He has read it like a book so far!!
What this article fails to acknowledge though, is Hitler connected with German people, because like him, they were bloody angry!

The lessons to be learned, is not that we are currently going down the wrong path. The lessons to learn is that when a growing number become disillusioned by the establishment, you are not going to shut them up with mainstream, liberal bullshit. These people want change!

Of course, a major reason why war may happen is because there's virtually nobody alive who truly remembers the horrors of the last one. Just reading about the horrors in a book doesn't resonate with young people.
The west has become multi-cultural, and that multiculturalism is constantly being forced down people's throats, and are then being gagged from complaining. That inspires anger, so if there is another war, all Western governments and Liberal minded people will ultimately be to blame for it
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Euler
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LeTiss 4pm wrote:The west has become multi-cultural, and that multiculturalism is constantly being forced down people's throats
To prevent the rise of nationalism and war. But I'm resigned to the fact history repeats and people never learn. China and Russia, perhaps others will smell an opportunity here I'm pretty sure.

The trigger wasn't actually multiculturalism really, it was the financial crash that led to those tensions coming to the fore. Prior to that it wasn't really consider a problem.
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Euler
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Ultimately the governments didn't punish the culprits enough. Should have slaughtered the financial institutions, but they let them become too strong and nobody got punished for raping the ordinary folk who are now paying the price of that. That's where the tensions have come from.
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LeTiss
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Euler wrote:
LeTiss 4pm wrote:The west has become multi-cultural, and that multiculturalism is constantly being forced down people's throats
To prevent the rise of nationalism and war. But I'm resigned to the fact history repeats and people never learn. China and Russia, perhaps others will smell an opportunity here I'm pretty sure.

The trigger wasn't actually multiculturalism really, it was the financial crash that led to those tensions coming to the fore. Prior to that it wasn't really consider a problem.
Well now we almost agree on something, because this is where I believe liberal minded governments have to take a large part of the blame. I have nothing against living in a multi-cultural society at all, but it's all about balance.

Where people are becoming angry, and ultimately anti-Islamic is because the balance has been tipped, due to western governments trying to avoid the war you predicted. There has been a forcing of people to accept Muslims, but not a forcing of Muslims to accept to a western lifestyle. That is where the anger started Peter, it just happen to coincide with the financial crash
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Euler
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If I lived in another country I would do so on the basis that I accept their way of life and customs and would honor them. I can't imagine a situation where I would imagine I have the right to impose my view on my host.
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Euler
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LeTiss 4pm wrote:That is where the anger started Peter, it just happen to coincide with the financial crash
I think people were happy to accept it, as it didn't feel like it was really having any impact on them.
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workpeter
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Like him or not, this is why trump is good for UK.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... ITAIN.html.

Rrmember Obama said UK would join the back of the queue?!
Zenyatta
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Result definitely supports my claim that the political outcomes are mainly based on personality rather policies - and the most likeable (or least unlikeable) candidate will (almost) always win.

Also fully confirms Peter's 'reality TV' theory - the candidate that is the most relatable is generally the one that simply amuses people the most and gets the most attention.

For every political market in the future, simply ask yourselves these two questions:

(1) Who is the most likeable candidate (or if neither are likeable, who is the least unlikeable)?

(2) Who is the best reality TV candidate - who amuses people the most and gets the most attention?

The answers to (1) and (2) will pick the winner every single time.

And of course in this case, the answer to (1) was Trump, and the answer to (2) was Trump as well.
Zenyatta
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Euler wrote:What happens next: -

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/tobias-st ... 79774.html

I agree with the general thrust. In 2004 somebody I know forecast 2008 and then said that will lead to a rise in the right wing isolationist policies and probably a war somewhere. With the West Weakened, it would probably come from expansionism from Russia or China. He has read it like a book so far!!
This 'somebody I know' sounds like a genius - the 'JollyGreen of politics' perhaps? ;)

I've definitely got a bad vibe about the future after reading that - I agree - I really think something big is going down and likely it's all going to 'hit the fan' within the next decade.

Keep your eye on the ball of technological development also, since new technologies are a major disruptive force in history that can completely change the ball-game in very unexpected ways!

In particular, keep your eye on the ball of artificial intelligence and robotics here, something that's now enjoying a very big surge of progress but is currently still just below the radar of public consciousness !

Powerful forces are converging towards an explosive, rock 'em, shock 'em outcome!
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Euler
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Technology is always the joker in the pack that economists forget about.

Back in the mid 90's I was evangelising about the Internet. How it would transform industries, reduce the supply chain, allow people to watch TV on phones and the like. All utterly dismissed by everybody as a fad and would never happen. But most of that was just from incumbents and people with a vested interest. Advances in technology are nearly always disruptive.

I invested in a number of Internet companies and joined one, but I was too early and never really made much despite predicting it. But it's clear what new trends will emerge in the near and further future.

For example, 3D printing will demolish mass manufacturing as the costs of manufacture scale down to an individual on demand. Bound to have an effect on China and similar economies. But, hopefully, by then China will have shifted to a consumer / service based economy.

What would happen if they finally manage to sort out nuclear fusion.
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