EU Membership Referendum (Brexit)

Betfair trading & Punting on politics. Be aware there is a lot of off topic discussion in this group centred on Political views.
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greenmark
Posts: 4948
Joined: Mon Jan 29, 2018 2:15 pm

sionascaig wrote:
Sun Aug 29, 2021 7:27 am
Not quite all over. It will feature large in this market I think https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/p ... .166577732

Surprised there is £20k matched in it...

But probably deserves another topic (or not)!
With both Torys and Labour against a ref I can't see it happening unless there's a hung Parliament at the next election (2024 or before) and the SNP could then use their 45 mp's to get what they want (perhaps). But Boris won't go early if he thinks there's a risk of a close result.
And even if 2024 does produce a hung Parliament, how long does it take to put together the legal side of a ref then set up and run the campaigns?
So not before 2025 for me. 1.74 for that could be worth a punt.
See you in 3.33 years. :-)
SweetLyrics
Posts: 207
Joined: Sat Jun 16, 2018 7:57 pm

Nicola Sturgeon seems determined to hold a second referendum, with or without Westminster's consent. She has just entered into a coalition with the Greens for that very reason.

I can see a Catalan-type situation, where she holds her referendum, even if the UK Parliament says that it won't honour a 'yes' vote and even if the UK Supreme Court tell her that the referendum would have no legal standing.

Thereby plunging the UK into a constitutional crisis.

Jeff
greenmark wrote:
Sun Aug 29, 2021 11:52 am
With both Torys and Labour against a ref I can't see it happening unless there's a hung Parliament at the next election (2024 or before) and the SNP could then use their 45 mp's to get what they want (perhaps). But Boris won't go early if he thinks there's a risk of a close result.
And even if 2024 does produce a hung Parliament, how long does it take to put together the legal side of a ref then set up and run the campaigns?
So not before 2025 for me. 1.74 for that could be worth a punt.
See you in 3.33 years. :-)
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decomez6
Posts: 651
Joined: Mon Oct 07, 2019 5:26 pm

greenmark wrote:
Sun Aug 29, 2021 11:52 am
sionascaig wrote:
Sun Aug 29, 2021 7:27 am
Not quite all over. It will feature large in this market
With both Torys and Labour against a ref I can't see it happening unless there's a hung Parliament at
And even if 2024 does produce a hung Parliament, how long does it take to put together the legal side of a ref then set up and run the campaigns?
So not before 2025 for me. 1.74 for that could be worth a punt.
See you in 3.33 years. :-)
Both Torys and labour lost to Nigel farrage ‘s Brexit rampage!! Even Boris Johnson was surprised by the result, he was not prepared to be a prime minister .
I don’t see why a determined Scottish people cannot be allowed to shape their own future.
After all , it was Brexit that took control from Brussels and the Scott’s want to take control from Westminster, …..NO double standards in the English gentleman agreements ,it’s written in the Robin Hood constitution ( trustworthy mutual consent).
Boris Johnson can’t be preaching water while he drinks red, red wine . The Scott’s will get their referendum and it won’t take much to campaign for it , Boris is doing that for them!
Look at how things are going! Not jolly at all.
greenmark
Posts: 4948
Joined: Mon Jan 29, 2018 2:15 pm

SweetLyrics wrote:
Sun Aug 29, 2021 11:58 am
Nicola Sturgeon seems determined to hold a second referendum, with or without Westminster's consent. She has just entered into a coalition with the Greens for that very reason.

I can see a Catalan-type situation, where she holds her referendum, even if the UK Parliament says that it won't honour a 'yes' vote and even if the UK Supreme Court tell her that the referendum would have no legal standing.

Thereby plunging the UK into a constitutional crisis.

Jeff
greenmark wrote:
Sun Aug 29, 2021 11:52 am
With both Torys and Labour against a ref I can't see it happening unless there's a hung Parliament at the next election (2024 or before) and the SNP could then use their 45 mp's to get what they want (perhaps). But Boris won't go early if he thinks there's a risk of a close result.
And even if 2024 does produce a hung Parliament, how long does it take to put together the legal side of a ref then set up and run the campaigns?
So not before 2025 for me. 1.74 for that could be worth a punt.
See you in 3.33 years. :-)
That was a bit of a curve ball. But the Supreme Court point looks a good one.
Does this clarify things?
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org. ... dependence
" Under the Scotland Act 1998, the Scottish parliament is not allowed to pass legislation relating to matters “reserved” to Westminster, including “the Union of the Kingdoms of Scotland and England”. This is widely interpreted to mean that any referendum relating to Scottish independence would require Westminster’s approval. However, this has never been tested in court, so there remains some uncertainty about whether Holyrood could hold an ‘advisory’ referendum (in which the Scottish electorate were asked whether they supported the principle of independence but did not mandate independence itself) without consent.

The power to hold the 2014 referendum was transferred in 2012 after the UK and Scottish governments signed the Edinburgh Agreement. The UK parliament passed a ‘Section 30 order’ – which gave the Scottish parliament the power to legislate for the referendum— which “put beyond doubt” the legality of the vote. The power was only transferred on a temporary basis, the order specifying that a referendum must take place before 31 December 2014.

The Scottish government has never explicitly conceded that a referendum could not be held without Westminster’s authorisation. But its preference is to proceed with agreement, since any unauthorised referendum could be blocked in the Supreme Court or simply boycotted by unionist parties."
I would assume the Betfair market would be based on this, rather than Holyrood unilaterally hold a referendum. But you'd have to check the rules I guess before getting involved.
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decomez6
Posts: 651
Joined: Mon Oct 07, 2019 5:26 pm

" Under the Scotland Act 1998, the Scottish parliament is not allowed to pass legislation relating to matters “reserved” to Westminster, including “the Union of the Kingdoms of Scotland and England”. This is widely interpreted to mean that any referendum relating to Scottish independence would require Westminster’s approval. However, this has never been tested in court,

A lesson from history press "Repeat"

sir william wallace freedom (2).gif
the court of public opinion is way stronger than legislation , but i see where you coming from.
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Archery1969
Posts: 3195
Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:25 am
Location: Newport

Given the SNP’s policy on immigration then if the Scots vote yes there would need to be a hard border between Scotland and England.
SweetLyrics
Posts: 207
Joined: Sat Jun 16, 2018 7:57 pm

Quite.

My SNP MP - who I won't name - told me in private correspondence that he does not think that there is any such thing as a fraudulent asylum seeker and that:

We are calling for a minimum of 35,000 to 40,000 Afghan refugees to be offered asylum in the UK – far more than the paltry 5,000 the UK government have announced they intend to resettle within 12 months, and a further 20,000 in the undefined “long-term”.

As I have pointed out to him, with austerity presumably around the corner to pay for the Covid measures, there are only so many asylum seekers that Britain can accommodate without it causing problems for Britain's already stretched public services.

Jeff
Archery1969 wrote:
Sun Aug 29, 2021 2:43 pm
Given the SNP’s policy on immigration then if the Scots vote yes there would need to be a hard border between Scotland and England.
Archery1969
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Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:25 am
Location: Newport

Homing 40,000 Afghans will cause real problems in certain quarters. Many UK citizens have been waiting decades for council accommodation and now some will be given one in next to no time. That will cause real anger in certain communities.

We are a small overcrowded island already. If some MP’s and celebrities think we should be doing more then they should pay for it or just shut up.

And I hope these people have been properly vetted. Public opinion will rapidly switch if one or more of them causes a terrorist incident.

The far right must be rubbing their hands as I imagine their members base will increase by some margin in the coming years.

The Uk is not the worlds Police or social worker.
greenmark
Posts: 4948
Joined: Mon Jan 29, 2018 2:15 pm

decomez6 wrote:
Sun Aug 29, 2021 2:15 pm
" Under the Scotland Act 1998, the Scottish parliament is not allowed to pass legislation relating to matters “reserved” to Westminster, including “the Union of the Kingdoms of Scotland and England”. This is widely interpreted to mean that any referendum relating to Scottish independence would require Westminster’s approval. However, this has never been tested in court,

A lesson from history press "Repeat"


sir william wallace freedom (2).gif

the court of public opinion is way stronger than legislation , but i see where you coming from.
I'm not sure Boris would act on opinon polls. Perphaps if there was an SNP landslide in the 2022 Scottish local elections the picture might change. But I think that would require some catastrophically bad non-devolved decisions by the UK Parliament that caused real harm in Scottish Tory council areas.
But then politics is as unpredictable as life. So who knows!
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decomez6
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Given the SNP’s policy on immigration then if the Scots vote yes there would need to be a hard border between Scotland and England
so long is - by- the people -for- the people , the scotts are happy to welcome the queen without a visa ,the english will therefore have to fund such border
I hope these people have been properly vetted. Public opinion will rapidly switch if one or more of them causes a terrorist incident.]
some of them are afghani british family members and aquintaces connected to the british consulate in afghanistan. they helped the british in the war against the taliban.
that said you have a point on vetting .
the Germans angela markel took it upon herself to help a couple of migrants some years back , next thing you know , rape cases increased dramatically.
most of the migrants were unmarried young men coming from a very conservative background . men and women dont mix in such communities ,but that is not to mean they dont know right or wrong . majority of them are law abiding citizens and very greatfull for the help offered.
The Uk is not the worlds Police or social worker
a little bit too late for that.

the common wealth is a club of former great british colonies with canada and australia leading the pack while the americans enjoy the special relationship.
the streangth of the british pound is testament to the deep rooted financila ties of uk to the latter group and for that reason reciprocity is the name of the game.
SweetLyrics
Posts: 207
Joined: Sat Jun 16, 2018 7:57 pm

'We're gonna build a wall. A big, beautiful wall. And guess who's gonna pay for it? The English!'

If Sturgeon does a Trump, Westminster will tell her what the Mexicans told Trump! 😂
Trader Pat
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Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

Some bloke called Hadrian thought of it first
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decomez6
Posts: 651
Joined: Mon Oct 07, 2019 5:26 pm

greenmark wrote:
Sun Aug 29, 2021 3:15 pm
decomez6 wrote:
Sun Aug 29, 2021 2:15 pm
" Under the Scotland Act 1998, the Scottish parliament is not allowed to pass legislation relating to matters “reserved” to Westminster, including “the Union of the Kingdoms of Scotland and England”. This is widely interpreted to mean that any referendum relating to Scottish independence would require Westminster’s approval. However, this has never been tested in court,

A lesson from history press "Repeat"


sir william wallace freedom (2).gif

the court of public opinion is way stronger than legislation , but i see where you coming from.
I'm not sure Boris would act on opinon polls. Perphaps if there was an SNP landslide in the 2022 Scottish local elections the picture might change. But I think that would require some catastrophically bad non-devolved decisions by the UK Parliament that caused real harm in Scottish Tory council areas.
But then politics is as unpredictable as life. So who knows!
Boris embody the oipinion polls, he used to be a journalist and knows how to put on a show.
i guess it all depends on how well keir starmer succeeds in exposing him ,especially when it comes to unkept promises of getting Brexit Done ! the right way and not the fishermen way.
this would harm the scotts torys and give more credence to a referendum with or without consent .
the EU is having a laugh .
they will be more than willing to arm twist the uk on behalf of the scotts.
SweetLyrics
Posts: 207
Joined: Sat Jun 16, 2018 7:57 pm

For an independent Scotland to join the EU, they'd need to adopt the Euro. Ain't gonna happen.
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decomez6
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SweetLyrics wrote:
Sun Aug 29, 2021 4:13 pm
For an independent Scotland to join the EU, they'd need to adopt the Euro. Ain't gonna happen.
the british kept the pound during the unhappy marriage with EU. the scotts only need to allow free movements of goods and services including labour.
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