SweetLyrics wrote: ↑Sun Aug 29, 2021 11:58 am
Nicola Sturgeon seems determined to hold a second referendum, with or without Westminster's consent. She has just entered into a coalition with the Greens for that very reason.
I can see a Catalan-type situation, where she holds her referendum, even if the UK Parliament says that it won't honour a 'yes' vote and even if the UK Supreme Court tell her that the referendum would have no legal standing.
Thereby plunging the UK into a constitutional crisis.
Jeff
greenmark wrote: ↑Sun Aug 29, 2021 11:52 am
With both Torys and Labour against a ref I can't see it happening unless there's a hung Parliament at the next election (2024 or before) and the SNP could then use their 45 mp's to get what they want (perhaps). But Boris won't go early if he thinks there's a risk of a close result.
And even if 2024 does produce a hung Parliament, how long does it take to put together the legal side of a ref then set up and run the campaigns?
So not before 2025 for me. 1.74 for that could be worth a punt.
See you in 3.33 years.
That was a bit of a curve ball. But the Supreme Court point looks a good one.
Does this clarify things?
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org. ... dependence
" Under the Scotland Act 1998, the Scottish parliament is not allowed to pass legislation relating to matters “reserved” to Westminster, including “the Union of the Kingdoms of Scotland and England”. This is widely interpreted to mean that any referendum relating to Scottish independence would require Westminster’s approval. However, this has never been tested in court, so there remains some uncertainty about whether Holyrood could hold an ‘advisory’ referendum (in which the Scottish electorate were asked whether they supported the principle of independence but did not mandate independence itself) without consent.
The power to hold the 2014 referendum was transferred in 2012 after the UK and Scottish governments signed the Edinburgh Agreement. The UK parliament passed a ‘Section 30 order’ – which gave the Scottish parliament the power to legislate for the referendum— which “put beyond doubt” the legality of the vote. The power was only transferred on a temporary basis, the order specifying that a referendum must take place before 31 December 2014.
The Scottish government has never explicitly conceded that a referendum could not be held without Westminster’s authorisation. But its preference is to proceed with agreement, since any unauthorised referendum could be blocked in the Supreme Court or simply boycotted by unionist parties."
I would assume the Betfair market would be based on this, rather than Holyrood unilaterally hold a referendum. But you'd have to check the rules I guess before getting involved.