EU Membership Referendum (Brexit)

Betfair trading & Punting on politics. Be aware there is a lot of off topic discussion in this group centred on Political views.
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gazuty
Posts: 2547
Joined: Sun Jun 26, 2011 11:03 am
Location: Green land :)

Euler wrote:
Fri Oct 18, 2019 9:49 pm
greenmark wrote:
Fri Oct 18, 2019 9:27 pm
Its all nationalist nonsense!
Being well travelled I hate nationalism. The more you travel the more you realise everybody is fairly similar and in fact the world would be a better place if we all got on together. Human nature is an odd thing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QsPDT5qHtZ4
Humans are groupish. It is in our dna, becasue humans who were not groupish and were excluded from the group - died - and their genes were not as sucessful as those who fitted in to the group. Hence shame is perhaps the most powerful negative emotion humans feel. We don't have ancestors that weren't strongly groupish.

There are groups everywhere and involved in everything we do. From participating in this forum, using this software, participating in the market, choosing our football team, driving our brand of car, wearing a brand of clothes - every single thing in the end is driven to be part of the group or to rebel against the group (to build favour from another group). To want to be part of a group is human.

I did once wrestle with the idea, can't we all just be friends and get along. Trouble is, there are good ideas and bad ideas, good people and bad people. I believe in individual freedom and liberty. So I have to tolerate bad ideas and bad people, to a certain extent. Everyone getting along is a utopia that can't occur with the natural variation within our species (that natural variation is ultimately a good thing which will lead to species survival).

In the meantime, we need to find ways to stop us killing each other, forming large groups and engaging in war just because the imaginery figmen in the mind x calls god is different from the imagery being in the mind that y calls god. Part of the ways to stop large group killing each other does (in part) involve nation states. There are probably also other ways.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wupToqz1e2g

Towards greater knowledge.
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Dublin_Flyer
Posts: 688
Joined: Sat Feb 11, 2012 10:39 am

On a more serious note, my ex from almost 20 odd years ago that I spent the Aug bank holiday with in Thorpe Park thinks we should get married so she can get an Irish passport. She has massive tits.

Ireland/UK travel and work restrictions don't apply post-Brexit as there's an agreement in place since decades ago that predates the EU that allows the Irish and UK to freely travel between each other, and work in each others countries without restrictions. That's for personal stuff though, anything business or bank related is still under the remit of the EU. So regardless of that....

Anyway massive tits, huge :o :lol:
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gazuty
Posts: 2547
Joined: Sun Jun 26, 2011 11:03 am
Location: Green land :)

Dublin_Flyer wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 8:26 am
On a more serious note, my ex from almost 20 odd years ago that I spent the Aug bank holiday with in Thorpe Park thinks we should get married so she can get an Irish passport. She has massive tits.

Ireland/UK travel and work restrictions don't apply post-Brexit as there's an agreement in place since decades ago that predates the EU that allows the Irish and UK to freely travel between each other, and work in each others countries without restrictions. That's for personal stuff though, anything business or bank related is still under the remit of the EU. So regardless of that....

Anyway massive tits, huge :o :lol:
Your theme worked for me.
jamesg46
Posts: 3769
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:05 pm

gazuty wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 7:25 am
Euler wrote:
Fri Oct 18, 2019 9:49 pm
greenmark wrote:
Fri Oct 18, 2019 9:27 pm
Its all nationalist nonsense!
Being well travelled I hate nationalism. The more you travel the more you realise everybody is fairly similar and in fact the world would be a better place if we all got on together. Human nature is an odd thing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QsPDT5qHtZ4
Humans are groupish. It is in our dna, becasue humans who were not groupish and were excluded from the group - died - and their genes were not as sucessful as those who fitted in to the group. Hence shame is perhaps the most powerful negative emotion humans feel. We don't have ancestors that weren't strongly groupish.

There are groups everywhere and involved in everything we do. From participating in this forum, using this software, participating in the market, choosing our football team, driving our brand of car, wearing a brand of clothes - every single thing in the end is driven to be part of the group or to rebel against the group (to build favour from another group). To want to be part of a group is human.

I did once wrestle with the idea, can't we all just be friends and get along. Trouble is, there are good ideas and bad ideas, good people and bad people. I believe in individual freedom and liberty. So I have to tolerate bad ideas and bad people, to a certain extent. Everyone getting along is a utopia that can't occur with the natural variation within our species (that natural variation is ultimately a good thing which will lead to species survival).

In the meantime, we need to find ways to stop us killing each other, forming large groups and engaging in war just because the imaginery figmen in the mind x calls god is different from the imagery being in the mind that y calls god. Part of the ways to stop large group killing each other does (in part) involve nation states. There are probably also other ways.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wupToqz1e2g

Towards greater knowledge.
Without dark, we wouldn't know light, without left, we wouldn't know right, without sad, we wouldn't know happy and on and on... we have to hate something in order to love something. Nationalism & Globalism is no different... society imo rides the wave of each but its simple, you need one to highlight the other. Without broke, there is no fix.
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

There's a lot of higher thinking about the human condition here and it's nice to hear. It's just a shame that the so many people in the wider world would just respond with a grunt.
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Euler
Posts: 24701
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

I figured out a lot of things in life fairly quickly once I was released from my conditioned shackles.

When I approached these markets earlier on I thought I knew how they priced and the like. So I carefully modelled everything and came up with some accurate descriptions on how they worked. But to my surprise, a lot of stuff didn't make any sense so I had to look outside of stats for an answer. Therein developed a decade of reading and digesting all the material I could find on psychology.

The end result of that was equal in enlightenment and bewilderment. It was really confusing to know why somebody was making the wrong decision, but being unable to change their mind.
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Euler wrote:
Mon Oct 21, 2019 5:26 pm
So I carefully modelled everything and came up with some accurate descriptions on how they worked. But to my surprise, a lot of stuff didn't make any sense so I had to look outside of stats for an answer.
If you're looking for correlations between human behaviour and markets, I think it's more useful to look at human behavior first and then try and find it in the market, rather than modelling the market then trying to find an explaination in behaviour. That way you only look at what's releveant instead of modelling 'everything' and then finding out most of it is spurious. Either methodology works though, pros and cons in both, so people shouldn't get too hung up on which way round to do it.
jamesg46
Posts: 3769
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:05 pm

Euler wrote:
Mon Oct 21, 2019 5:26 pm

The end result of that was equal in enlightenment and bewilderment. It was really confusing to know why somebody was making the wrong decision, but being unable to change their mind.
'Wisdom is bleak & that's word from the wise'
greenmark
Posts: 4948
Joined: Mon Jan 29, 2018 2:15 pm

So Mays Brexit deal trapped (potentially) the UK in EU alignment.
Johnson's deal traps NI in EU alignment, unless Unionists can achieve a Stormont majority.
A success for democracy or Westminster casting NI adrift?
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Euler
Posts: 24701
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

ShaunWhite wrote:
Mon Oct 21, 2019 6:17 pm
Euler wrote:
Mon Oct 21, 2019 5:26 pm
So I carefully modelled everything and came up with some accurate descriptions on how they worked. But to my surprise, a lot of stuff didn't make any sense so I had to look outside of stats for an answer.
If you're looking for correlations between human behaviour and markets, I think it's more useful to look at human behavior first and then try and find it in the market, rather than modelling the market then trying to find an explaination in behaviour. That way you only look at what's releveant instead of modelling 'everything' and then finding out most of it is spurious. Either methodology works though, pros and cons in both, so people shouldn't get too hung up on which way round to do it.
When I started this career, I hadn't figured how much a part psychology would play otherwise I would have done it the other way around.

I now know what I'm looking for and search for it.
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Euler
Posts: 24701
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

greenmark wrote:
Tue Oct 22, 2019 5:20 pm
So Mays Brexit deal trapped (potentially) the UK in EU alignment.
Johnson's deal traps NI in EU alignment, unless Unionists can achieve a Stormont majority.
A success for democracy or Westminster casting NI adrift?
Poor old Gibraltar has been completely forgotten.
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Euler wrote:
Tue Oct 22, 2019 5:47 pm
When I started this career, I hadn't figured how much a part psychology would play otherwise I would have done it the other way around.

I now know what I'm looking for and search for it.
When I comment on what you do it's always to simply explore alternatives, you know I'm a just the type to flip received thinking and see what happens. (Maverick would be the flattering term but bloody awkward is probably more appropriate). It would be a bit audacious to outright challenge you on these things, afterall I'm on your forum rather than you being on mine :)
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Euler
Posts: 24701
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

I don't think I see any unfair comments. I'd encourage people to think. As I've learnt the opposite of a good idea is often a good idea.
greenmark
Posts: 4948
Joined: Mon Jan 29, 2018 2:15 pm

Euler wrote:
Tue Oct 22, 2019 5:48 pm
greenmark wrote:
Tue Oct 22, 2019 5:20 pm
So Mays Brexit deal trapped (potentially) the UK in EU alignment.
Johnson's deal traps NI in EU alignment, unless Unionists can achieve a Stormont majority.
A success for democracy or Westminster casting NI adrift?
Poor old Gibraltar has been completely forgotten.
Hmm, will have to explore that remark.
Jukebox
Posts: 1576
Joined: Thu Sep 06, 2012 8:07 pm

Euler wrote:
Tue Oct 22, 2019 5:58 pm
.... As I've learnt the opposite of a good idea is often a good idea.
All to often overlooked.

It's often the indecision that is the bad idea.
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