EU Membership Referendum (Brexit)

Betfair trading & Punting on politics. Be aware there is a lot of off topic discussion in this group centred on Political views.
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LeTiss
Posts: 5386
Joined: Fri May 08, 2009 6:04 pm

This is going to be an IMMENSE market

We've seen in recent years that Politics has become really huge on BF. The Scottish Independence vote was an absolute stonker

June 23rd £810k already matched

I thought I'd start a thread so we can all post our thoughts where we think this market will go

Currently

1.43 Stay
3.25 Leave
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Crazyskier
Posts: 1157
Joined: Sat Feb 06, 2016 6:36 pm

Stay will SHORTEN by at least 15-20%
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LeTiss
Posts: 5386
Joined: Fri May 08, 2009 6:04 pm

You're right, the price is shortening

However, I wouldn't be surprised to see that price bounce as we get nearer to June - this is what happened with the Scottish vote

Don't forget, UKIP won more votes than any other party at the last European Elections, so there's enough support to suggest it will be a competitve market
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Euler
Posts: 24700
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

It should be a good market
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LeTiss
Posts: 5386
Joined: Fri May 08, 2009 6:04 pm

Already the bounce back for LEAVE - exactly what happened in Scotland

I'm interested in connected markets, I'm especially looking at the market for 'Next Conservative Leader'

Boris Johnson has been well fancied for 2 years. However, if LEAVE is the winner, then Cameron is finished. He cannot continue as Prime Minister having failed to convince the public on such an important issue.

This will lead to a leadership contest. Realistically, the only people that could run for it would be those who backed the LEAVE campaign, and therefore would now have the job of dealing with the transition. Johnson has pinned his colours to the LEAVE mast, making him the overwhelming favourite to take over from Cameron

The price for Johnson could be an interesting sideline to keep your eye on!

22nd Feb
Matched £1.1 Million

1.51 Stay
2.94 Leave
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Dallas
Posts: 22672
Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:57 pm
Location: Working From Home

I have to applaud your angles on these markets LeTiss
hgodden
Posts: 1759
Joined: Thu Apr 16, 2009 2:13 pm

LeTiss 4pm wrote:Already the bounce back for LEAVE - exactly what happened in Scotland

I'm interested in connected markets, I'm especially looking at the market for 'Next Conservative Leader'

Boris Johnson has been well fancied for 2 years. However, if LEAVE is the winner, then Cameron is finished. He cannot continue as Prime Minister having failed to convince the public on such an important issue.

This will lead to a leadership contest. Realistically, the only people that could run for it would be those who backed the LEAVE campaign, and therefore would now have the job of dealing with the transition. Johnson has pinned his colours to the LEAVE mast, making him the overwhelming favourite to take over from Cameron

The price for Johnson could be an interesting sideline to keep your eye on!

22nd Feb
Matched £1.1 Million

1.51 Stay
2.94 Leave
Love the 'unintentional' subliminal messages in there LeTiss, wouldn't want to LEAVE things to chance now would we! ;) :lol:
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superfrank
Posts: 2762
Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2009 8:28 pm

Hopefully it will become a tight race despite all the mainstream parties, big business and the BBC all wanting to stay in.

Fascinating stuff.

Expect the pollsters to bolux it up again.
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Euler
Posts: 24700
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

From a personal perspective I would like to stay in the EU because I want the right to travel, live and work where I wish without a problem.

However I don't think the EU has brought much of the way in benefits as it's supposed to. Just look at the betting industry. When we started we serviced all EU countries. One by one they have all gone. So much for a free market.

So I'm not convinced by either argument.
convoysur-2
Posts: 1110
Joined: Thu Jan 12, 2012 10:00 am

Euler wrote:From a personal perspective I would like to stay in the EU because I want the right to travel, live and work where I wish without a problem.

However I don't think the EU has brought much of the way in benefits as it's supposed to. Just look at the betting industry. When we started we serviced all EU countries. One by one they have all gone. So much for a free market.

So I'm not convinced by either argument.
and all the potential gouverments in this election ,this month in ireland are for taxing betting ,
so im sure it will be the end of betfair here just like the other countries that have gone that way,
LinusP
Posts: 1871
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2012 10:45 pm

I don't know enough about the economic factors but surely there is a relationship between this market and GBP/EUR. Whether its mean reversion or one moving before the other, I would assume that the fx market is more accurate than betfair?
convoysur-2
Posts: 1110
Joined: Thu Jan 12, 2012 10:00 am

well all this talk is certainly devaluing the sterling
this a a monthly chart
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Crazyskier
Posts: 1157
Joined: Sat Feb 06, 2016 6:36 pm

convoysur-2 wrote:well all this talk is certainly devaluing the sterling
this a a monthly chart

I very nearly purchased a property in Caleta De Fuste last summer, (Islas Canarias) when I could have had a bank exchange rate of 1.41 Euros to the pound...

Yes, I expect the pound to plummet to around 1:1.1 until we decide to stay in the Eu, when it will undoubtedly rebound.
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superfrank
Posts: 2762
Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2009 8:28 pm

Crazyskier wrote:Yes, I expect the pound to plummet to around 1:1.1 until we decide to stay in the Eu, when it will undoubtedly rebound.
Brexit could well be a positive for the £ if it happens - it's the uncertainty causing the current weakness and markets believing some of the official scaremongering. The fundamentals of the UK economy mean it's still toast long-term though (in or out).
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