France Presidential Election 2017

[LeTiss]

It's interesting to see the money for Jean-Luc Melenchon, as I've always considered him to be a bloody Communist!

French Politics is in a right state - they have to choose between a lover of the EU, a Communist, or the Le Pen family!

[gazuty]

Been a good result for me this election.

[Laugro1968]

Le Pen would still be value at 6/4 in my eyes, how we have differing opinions lol!

Hmmmm, I'd give 6/4 anytime before first round. Interested?:)

[Naffman]

Le Pen would still be value at 6/4 in my eyes, how we have differing opinions lol!

Hmmmm, I'd give 6/4 anytime before first round. Interested?:)

I'll take the 3/1-7/2 on the exchange it's okay thanks

[Euler]

With the upcoming first round of the French Presidential Election, please ensure you are comfortable with the exposure on your open positions leading into the market close on Friday, April 21st 2017. There is an increased risk of price gaps given that the results may be published prior to the market open on Sunday, April 23rd 2017. As a result we will be increasing the margin requirement on all EUR crosses and European Equity Index CFDs on Friday, April 21st 2017 at 4pm UK time. Further details on margin rate increases will be sent in an email next week.

Please ensure you have sufficient margin cover by adding further funds or reducing positions before margin rate changes are implemented.

[Naffman]

Going to big movements on the EUR whatever happens in the coming month

[Laugro1968]

I guess a GBP account is better then!
If I can find early result, I'll be posting the links here.

Best,
Laurent

[Dublin_Flyer]

Haven't followed this one in depth. Is it too late to throw Griezmann in for a nomination?? He's doing great in Europe and open to a move to the BPL possibly, the opposite of most of the other candidates!

[Dallas]

Haven't followed this one in depth. Is it too late to throw Griezmann in for a nomination?? He's doing great in Europe and open to a move to the BPL possibly, the opposite of most of the other candidates!

Im still struggling to find trades im confident in, knowing very little about each of the candidates and their history its a little difficulty to judge how much effect a piece of news is likely to have so playing this a little cautious

[Dublin_Flyer]

Im still struggling to find trades im confident in, knowing very little about each of the candidates and their history its a little difficulty to judge how much effect a piece of news is likely to have so playing this a little cautious

Isn't that what separates the traders from the gamblers?? It's like Cheltenham Dallas, you don't need a bet/trade in every race/election, another one will be soon coming.

This post might be one of the only times in internet history Cheltenham Dallas have followed each other in a sentence

[Laugro1968]

Im still struggling to find trades im confident in, knowing very little about each of the candidates and their history its a little difficulty to judge how much effect a piece of news is likely to have so playing this a little cautious

That's always the case in politics. Outside events can have a major impact on the public. Hence I'm waiting for the last couple of days to take bigger positions. Odds are closing anyway.

Best,
Laurent

[LeTiss]

Interesting to note, Marine Le Pen was starting to significantly drift.

However, yesterday's terrorist attack on a policeman has galvanised her support.

This is why I find Politics trading fascinating - there's huge liquidity, but some major moves are simply sparked by the news, I like that!

[Euler]

It was sadly inevitable that the Le Pen market would liven up after that.

I think it's odd how a few random people can cause such shifts in a nation. Am I the only person for whom this doesn't make any sense? They must be laughing at the disruption and panic this causes for so little effort.

[Laugro1968]

I still don't believe she will become France's next president as she will need to gather more than 50% of the votes on May 7th.
She will probably win the first round for 3 reasons:
- I've always thought polls underestimated her performance
- The terrorist attacks will surely add a couple of %
- Turnout on Sunday will play an important role as some people might be to scared to go voting (obviously not MLP voters).

So to me, MLP will probably win the first round (maybe even get 30%), but will loose H2H.

My opinion for what it's worth.

[Laugro1968]

Final thoughts:
Backed Macron next president.
Dutched Fillon for break even.

In a way, it's a no loose situation because if either MLP or Melenchon win it, we'll be loosing a whole lot more!

Brace, brace, brace ....

Laurent