France Presidential Election 2017

[Laugro1968]

I know this is after the event so won't mean much but I typed a long message last night on this topic recommending backing Melenchon at 55's and laying Fillon at 5.2 on some overnight news...and didn't hit send Today they are at 36 and 6.2 and I wish I'd been a bit braver about my offset and measily stake. Next time I must remember to hit send.

£2.77 ... not quite up to the price of a decent bottle of chateau mouton rothschild yet.

I agree that laying Fillon at 6 still carries value. His progression from around 9-ish since his judicial problems are based on rumored hidden voters, but he's far from being anti-system as was Trump (not talking about his trailing Macron and Le Pen by 5-6% in every first round poll).

The question is how will the market quote a H2H between Macron and Le Pen between both rounds. I suspect Fillon's current market share (5/1) will be evenly redistributed between both candidates. I cannot see her getting elected though. That's why I think that 1.72, Macron is back-able.

Just my thoughts:)

[Naffman]

Can't believe they are laying Le Pen like they are, she's a certainty if she gets h2h with Macron imo! Another country that is so fed up, even more so than the UK was with Brexit means I can only see one outcome. Thankfully the layers on Betfair have a different view

[Laugro1968]

Can't believe they are laying Le Pen like they are, she's a certainty if she gets h2h with Macron imo! Another country that is so fed up, even more so than the UK was with Brexit means I can only see one outcome. Thankfully the layers on Betfair have a different view

The French are not Britons! Sure MLP will score high, but she's lacks charisma to bring it home.

[ShaunWhite]

Can't believe they are laying Le Pen like they are, she's a certainty if she gets h2h with Macron imo! Another country that is so fed up, even more so than the UK was with Brexit means I can only see one outcome. Thankfully the layers on Betfair have a different view

The French are not Britons! Sure MLP will score high, but she's lacks charisma to bring it home.

I don't think Joe Public (or M. et Mme Tout-le-Monde) actually cares about who's left wing or right wing, they just want a voice. The media stick a 'right wing' label on people who want to control immigration and a 'left wing' label on controlling banks & globalisation. Joe Public want change that crosses conventional party politics, and you have strong candidates on both sides. They're natural libertarians so they don't like the authoritarian right and have bad memories of the war, but also fiercely protective of their traditions, which are being wiped out by the left. The Trump and Brexit votes went the way they did because they had charismatic frontmen and pathetic opposition, in this one, who knows.

[Naffman]

Can't believe they are laying Le Pen like they are, she's a certainty if she gets h2h with Macron imo! Another country that is so fed up, even more so than the UK was with Brexit means I can only see one outcome. Thankfully the layers on Betfair have a different view

The French are not Britons! Sure MLP will score high, but she's lacks charisma to bring it home.

The French immigration problem is a lot worse than it is here in the UK and I think a lot of people have given up the whole EU project especially in France where unemployment is now double figures.

[LeTiss]

I don't think Joe Public (or M. et Mme Tout-le-Monde) actually cares about who's left wing or right wing, they just want a voice. The media stick a 'right wing' label on people who want to control immigration and a 'left wing' label on controlling banks & globalisation. Joe Public want change that crosses conventional party politics.

Something we finally agree on within the subject of politics, Shaun!

People labelled Brexit leave voters, as right-wing, but when you look at the number of votes in Labour strongholds, traditional working class areas, those people are anything but right-wing. People voted for change with Brexit, they voted for change with Trump, and I wouldn;t be surprised to see France vote for change too

[Laugro1968]

The Trump and Brexit votes went the way they did because they had charismatic frontmen and pathetic opposition, in this one, who knows.

Agreed. Unlike Trump, MLP is facing a VERY smart and charismatic Macron, a pro-european leftish liberal who nobody knew 2 years ago, building his image as a unifier (not left, not right). MLP started backtracking from her stance on brutaly exiting the EU and the Euro because she knows it's a hurdle that many won't cross, although a majority follow her on immigration issues.
Unlike Britain, if France decides to leave the European Union, then that's it for Europe.

As far as the markets are concerned, if Macron makes his 23-24% and faces MLP in the second round, he will remain favorite to win the race. Hence my backing at 1.73 (58%).

[LeTiss]

The Trump and Brexit votes went the way they did because they had charismatic frontmen and pathetic opposition, in this one, who knows.

Macron, a pro-european leftish liberal who nobody knew 2 years ago, building his image as a unifier (not left, not right)

OMG I hate him already, he sounds like my worst nightmare. Surely, the French people are intelligent enough to realise it's people like him that have changed this world in the most horrendous way

[Naffman]

But he and his wife are on the front pages of magazines, surely they are wonderful people

[ShaunWhite]

I don't think Joe Public (or M. et Mme Tout-le-Monde) actually cares about who's left wing or right wing, they just want a voice. The media stick a 'right wing' label on people who want to control immigration and a 'left wing' label on controlling banks & globalisation. Joe Public want change that crosses conventional party politics.

Something we finally agree on within the subject of politics, Shaun!

Hooray I'm just as protective of 'our way of life' and national identity as you are mate believe it or not. Maybe someday we'll drag ourselve away from our desks and have a pint....not half a litre, a proper pint.

[Laugro1968]

But he and his wife are on the front pages of magazines, surely they are wonderful people

You're mixing up Macron and Fillon:)

[Naffman]

Dammit why couldn't it be Macron! It gave me a bigger hatred of him

[Laugro1968]

Macron at 1.9, all looks like value to me. Odds might still tighten a bit in the next 2 weeks, so unless he makes a mistake, I'm backing him a couple of days before the first round.
I also see some opportunities in combining a couple of markets.

Laurent

[Naffman]

Le Pen would still be value at 6/4 in my eyes, how we have differing opinions lol!

[LeTiss]

The interesting thing about Brexit and Trump, was that people clearly voted differently on the day to how they had indicated they would vote

I'm wondering whether it will be the same with Marine?
The Le Pen family are heavily linked to extreme racism, but she ticks the boxes for those who are unhappy at the negative side extreme Liberalism has brought to their door in recent years

I think she will do better than many think