UK General Election **June 8th**

Betfair trading & Punting on politics. Be aware there is a lot of off topic discussion in this group centred on Political views.
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scribbles
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cybernet69 wrote:
Sun Jun 18, 2017 3:43 pm
scribbles wrote:
Sun Jun 18, 2017 3:24 pm
cybernet69 wrote:
Sun Jun 18, 2017 10:16 am
TM wont last the summer. Another leadership contest. Vote of no confidence in the government.
Why , because of a comrade Corbyn insurrection?

http://www.breitbart.com/london/2017/06 ... ndon-fire/
Not necessarily.

I think this tower fire and brexit is going to cause chaos for the sitting PM and government.

Summer of discontent.
On the fire, I am skeptical and have not yet decided which way I am leaning, initially I wondered if the announcement of civil servants deployed to the local council to 'assist' was to undergo a cover-up. There is downplayed political posturing on this one up to now, although apparently the cladding used on the block is banned across Europe (Philip Hammond), we shall see...

Then we have Sadiq Khan and his "Public are sick of politicians platitudes" (paraphrased) statement, oh the irony.

On Brexit, I am quietly confident, both Labour and Conservative manifestos pushed border control etc so the BBC & media spin about a rejection of 'hard' Brexit is nonsense, UK's hand is stronger than we are led to believe. It doesn't surprise me that this is not reported in the BBC (but is on Fox news and Breitbart) there are European countries (Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic) in a deadlock and refusing to take immigrants, Sweden are also reversing their policy after a terrorist attack recently (again not on the BBC), Geo-politically this is becoming interesting, the EU will crumble gradually if they don't change policy.

Also, while I am far from an expert on Constitutional or European Law, I would suspect Corbyn's policy of Nationalising industries (Power in particular) would be more difficult within the EU, especially as they are backed by European companies?
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ShaunWhite
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scribbles wrote:
Sun Jun 18, 2017 4:04 pm
Also, while I am far from an expert on Constitutional or European Law, I would suspect Corbyn's policy of Nationalising industries (Power in particular) would be more difficult within the EU, especially as they are backed by European companies?
It's not a constitutional or EU law issue. It's just standard UK contract law. The contracts for the privatised businesses targeted for renationalisation are fixed term leases. The government would just not renew the contracts and they would return to public ownership. For any that are contracted for a very long period of time, they could in theory be able to aquire a controlling interest throught the normal process of stock aquisition.
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ShaunWhite
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cybernet69 wrote:
Sun Jun 18, 2017 10:16 am
TM wont last the summer. Another leadership contest. Vote of no confidence in the government.
She'll stay much longer than that. Several reasons:
Senior Tories have openly said that the don't have any suitable replacement candidates of quality and charisma.
Even the rebel backbenchers wouldn't support a vote of no confidence as it would trigger another election, turkey's voting for Christmas.
No serious career politician would want to take over the Brexit responsiblity as it's a big career risk.

I think the precident was set with Edward Heath when he created a very similar situation to May in the 1974 election. They made him stay on for over a year even though his attempt to create a coalition failed, which triggering another election in October, which they lost. He didn't walk until 1975.

May's "I've got us in this mess and I'll get us out of it" comment to her backbenchers at the 1922 committee meeting was Westminster code for "nobody else wants to deal with this mess so they're making me stay and take the flak, so if you value your jobs you better back me". She'd had a meeting with the senior Tories, the ones who actually run the party, only the day before.

They're also already clearing the way for fewer oppertunities for her to be voted down, the most obvious is that they've already cancelled next year's Queen's Speech, effectively creating a two year parliament.

If she makes it through Conference in October she'll be there until at least April 2019.

...or I could be wrong

on a side issue May's deal with the DUP could cost England billions, every extra penny she promises Northern Ireland with have to be matched in extra payments to Wales and Scotland under the rules of the Barnet formula. It's a shame the media don't credit the general public with enough intellegence to understand and explain the details.
Last edited by ShaunWhite on Mon Jun 19, 2017 4:00 am, edited 1 time in total.
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ShaunWhite
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scribbles wrote:
Sun Jun 18, 2017 4:04 pm
On Brexit, I am quietly confident, both Labour and Conservative manifestos pushed border control etc so the BBC & media spin about a rejection of 'hard' Brexit is nonsense.
As you say, people didn't vote Labour to get a 'soft' brexit, it was mostly anti-austerity.

BBC & media spin? With all the different private media owners' political allegiancies, it's unlikely that they'd conspire to all give it the same 'spin'.

The only people I've heard talking about this being a rejection of 'hard' brexit are the Tories, that's certainly what they've been saying on Any Questions, Marr, Peston and the Daily/Sunday Politics. They're using it as an excuse to soften May's "deal or no deal" Brexit approach to give them some much needed wiggle room in the negotiations.

I think most Brexiteers would be happy to just see the end of free movement and they're going to get that. I don't think many of the 'hard' Brexiteers deperately want to see the end to joint security arrangements, the city services passport, tarriff free trade, the common agricultural policy etc etc.
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LeTiss
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You can still lay a Conservative Minority at 1.09-1.10

I think this is good value, as the DUP deal looks far from done

You can also back another 2017 GE at 3.65 - I think this could be value too, as the agreement looks weak, and Theresa May looks even weaker
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Euler
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Mind reader
cybernet69

This deal wont last very long. After watching Newsnight yesterday, I am surprised Labour and others are not all over it.

"The DUP leader and others in her party openly talking to known loyalist terrorists, on the sofa"

We could be going back to the Northern Ireland troubles.
cybernet69

Labour are lining up a number of amendments to the Queens Speech.

We could see the government collapse and TM gone before the end of the week.

:D
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ShaunWhite
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cybernet69 wrote:
Wed Jun 21, 2017 8:42 am

"The DUP leader and others in her party openly talking to known loyalist terrorists, on the sofa"
Yep, and people had to cheek to slate JC when he was talking to various people in NI about peace in the past. DUP links with the loyalist paramilitary and the Tories have been common knowledge for decades, Newsnight was Oldnewsnight yesterday but it's good to see it covered on mainstream tv rather than people having to go looking for the facts.

It was amusing to see The Queen's outfit in parliament today. Blue with gold stars/flowers on her hat, she couldn't have looked more like the EU flag if she'd tried :)
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LeTiss
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Don't try to pretend Corbyn was part of the peace process, Shaun, because that's bollocks

This is a man who refused to sing the National Anthem at the Battle of Britain service........and to think he nearly ended up as PM. All those youngsters who voted for him need an history education lesson before they think he's our answer
cybernet69

ShaunWhite wrote:
Wed Jun 21, 2017 2:01 pm
cybernet69 wrote:
Wed Jun 21, 2017 8:42 am

"The DUP leader and others in her party openly talking to known loyalist terrorists, on the sofa"
Yep, and people had to cheek to slate JC when he was talking to various people in NI about peace in the past. DUP links with the loyalist paramilitary and the Tories have been common knowledge for decades, Newsnight was Oldnewsnight yesterday but it's good to see it covered on mainstream tv rather than people having to go looking for the facts.

It was amusing to see The Queen's outfit in parliament today. Blue with gold stars/flowers on her hat, she couldn't have looked more like the EU flag if she'd tried :)
Yes, i served in NI and everyone and their dog knew and still does about the DUP and .....

I find it funny that they are still allowed to have their pistols for personal protection whereas us mere mortals lost our handguns many moon ago but were never allowed one for personal protection, only target shooting.
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ruthlessimon
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Lol; utterly outrageous!!!! Hope the young realise this is the true nature of Labour

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40697326
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