Peterborough by-Election

Betfair trading & Punting on politics. Be aware there is a lot of off topic discussion in this group centred on Political views.
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ShaunWhite
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Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

superfrank wrote:
Thu Jun 06, 2019 12:46 pm
Low turnout might be the worry - Leave voting areas had very low turnouts in the Euros.
Thats a phenomenon I'm suprised about. You'd imagine mobilising the troops would be easy for the leavers.
Perhaps it points to the fact that so many aren't naturally political animals and the interest is wearing off? The only other evidence I've seen for that is the vocal "i'm bored with it let's just get it done" brigade. I think it's unfortunate that the two extremes still dominate the media as logic and stats would indicate the majority support some kind of common ground. No Dealers and Keep it Exactly the Same both seem to be polling around 20%, making the middle 60% the clear majority....but suprisingly the middle ground were almost wiped out recently. It's fascinating.....and hopefully very lucrative for a long time to come.
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ShaunWhite
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Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

LeTiss wrote:
Thu Jun 06, 2019 12:30 pm
No, they are all taking bets today. Brexit Party currently drifting
I think that's just the behaviour of a standard news based market. Over excitement and overreactions followed by reflection and mellowing.
It seems to happen a lot.

Linked to that there was an interesting piece on More or Less this week. What's better, you're first instinct or your second guess? 2nd guess is actually marginally better although Justin Kruger (he of the Dunning-Kurger effect) has found that the general public prefer people who stick to their initial guess.
dragontrades
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Joined: Wed Oct 19, 2016 11:22 pm

I think high turnout would actually favour Labour
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LeTiss
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Brexit Party still trading at 1.28

If you believe those figures, they could be worth a lay, surely
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Dallas
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Location: Working From Home

LeTiss wrote:
Thu Jun 06, 2019 10:50 pm
Brexit Party still trading at 1.28

If you believe those figures, they could be worth a lay, surely
Just thinking the same
dragontrades
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Joined: Wed Oct 19, 2016 11:22 pm

market starting to get moving
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BetScalper
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Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:47 pm

Brexit party drifting big time since I laid them at 1.15.

Do I take £4.85 or let it ride for £126.40 ?

🤔
dragontrades
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Joined: Wed Oct 19, 2016 11:22 pm

lump for Brexit party
dragontrades
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counting hasn't started yet
dragontrades
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Joined: Wed Oct 19, 2016 11:22 pm

48% turnout
dragontrades
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Jezza's got this
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ruthlessimon
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Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm

Lab <2.0 :o
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