Peterborough by-Election

Betfair trading & Punting on politics. Be aware there is a lot of off topic discussion in this group centred on Political views.
User avatar
Euler
Posts: 24701
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

ShaunWhite wrote:
Wed May 15, 2019 9:12 pm
Yep the world gets scarier by the day, I'm on the verge of never watching the news and just living in ignorant bliss.The spread of guns will make knife crime look like a tea party, but being a country boy in an area where everyone is armed to the eyeballs, I think our compound will be safe if the you know what hits the fan.
I more or less don't watch the news as it adds little but depression and anxiety to most, but social media is worst. I've taken to just cutting myself off from most of it and just being myself.

I also thinks that it helps my trading. You can look at things purely objectively.
User avatar
ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

+1
As you know I had a similar dilemma with the forum. On balance I see the value, however steering clear of the pointless bickering is my problem, not the fault of the medium. Turning a blind eye was never my strong point and if you care about the world then staying informed but not letting things preoccupy you is tough.
User avatar
Euler
Posts: 24701
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

I think you learn how to do that over time. It's difficult to not care, but I often found myself in arguments where I know I was right but the other side just couldn't find it in themselves to see my viewpoint or understand it. So when you see that, you realise that sometimes it's just not worth the energy any more.

I said in an interview recently it was like trying to convince somebody not to jump off a cliff because they can't fly. But they do it anyway just to prove you wrong! You realise the hopelessness of it, but at the same time it teaches you a lot about the way people think and the world works. You have to come to terms with that though. But you get a sense of enlightenment through doing that.
User avatar
ruthlessimon
Posts: 2094
Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm

Euler wrote:
Wed May 15, 2019 10:01 pm
I often found myself in arguments where I know I was right but the other side just couldn't find it in themselves to see my viewpoint or understand it. So when you see that, you realise that sometimes it's just not worth the energy any more.
Problem is, when it comes to stuff like politics that mentality backfires

James O'Brien being the guy who comes to mind. "knows he's right" on Brexit, but refuses to debate Farage et al; because they're all "faith based fascists". Just screams of a weak argument - even though I think he talks sense a lot of the time!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=axLpnnFVKcM
User avatar
ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

ruthlessimon wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 12:39 am
Euler wrote:
Wed May 15, 2019 10:01 pm
I often found myself in arguments where I know I was right but the other side just couldn't find it in themselves to see my viewpoint or understand it. So when you see that, you realise that sometimes it's just not worth the energy any more.
Problem is, when it comes to stuff like politics that mentality backfires
I dunno, when positions are so entrenched then it's only worth debating if it's going to be mentally stimulating for the participants or the audience. A good debate should be like fencing or a chess game, and a handshake at the end. There's no joy to be had if someone isn't going to argue properly and just spouts soundbites. These days debating is about digging out differences when it's real function should be to find common ground, it's not really about 'winning' because as we all know neither end of the bell curve holds the answers.

There's a new series of Across the Red Line on R4, where people with opposing views are mediated by a conflict resolution expert. This week "Are referendums good for democracy". Much more interesting than yet another so called debate and explores the relative importance of the process vs the outcome.

That said, I hear ITV have got a lie detector machine going spare, if Question Time bought it then it might get interesting. ;)
User avatar
firlandsfarm
Posts: 2688
Joined: Sat May 03, 2014 8:20 am

ruthlessimon wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 12:39 am
James O'Brien being the guy who comes to mind.
The problem with James O'Brien is that he is so busy talking about others as being bigots that he doesn't realise that he is himself a bigot … Bigot: "A person who is intolerant towards those holding different opinions" (OED)
User avatar
LeTiss
Posts: 5386
Joined: Fri May 08, 2009 6:04 pm

Brexit Party very short - I'm wondering if they might be worth a lay

We're hearing that Labour's push today in Peterborough is looking impressive
User avatar
Dallas
Posts: 22674
Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:57 pm
Location: Working From Home

A few days ago I heard bookies were refusing to take bets on the Brexit party anymore

I've not checked to see if that's still the case
User avatar
LeTiss
Posts: 5386
Joined: Fri May 08, 2009 6:04 pm

No, they are all taking bets today. Brexit Party currently drifting
User avatar
superfrank
Posts: 2762
Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2009 8:28 pm

Low turnout might be the worry - Leave voting areas had very low turnouts in the Euros.
User avatar
ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

superfrank wrote:
Thu Jun 06, 2019 12:46 pm
Low turnout might be the worry - Leave voting areas had very low turnouts in the Euros.
Thats a phenomenon I'm suprised about. You'd imagine mobilising the troops would be easy for the leavers.
Perhaps it points to the fact that so many aren't naturally political animals and the interest is wearing off? The only other evidence I've seen for that is the vocal "i'm bored with it let's just get it done" brigade. I think it's unfortunate that the two extremes still dominate the media as logic and stats would indicate the majority support some kind of common ground. No Dealers and Keep it Exactly the Same both seem to be polling around 20%, making the middle 60% the clear majority....but suprisingly the middle ground were almost wiped out recently. It's fascinating.....and hopefully very lucrative for a long time to come.
User avatar
ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

LeTiss wrote:
Thu Jun 06, 2019 12:30 pm
No, they are all taking bets today. Brexit Party currently drifting
I think that's just the behaviour of a standard news based market. Over excitement and overreactions followed by reflection and mellowing.
It seems to happen a lot.

Linked to that there was an interesting piece on More or Less this week. What's better, you're first instinct or your second guess? 2nd guess is actually marginally better although Justin Kruger (he of the Dunning-Kurger effect) has found that the general public prefer people who stick to their initial guess.
dragontrades
Posts: 1248
Joined: Wed Oct 19, 2016 11:22 pm

I think high turnout would actually favour Labour
Post Reply

Return to “Political betting & arguing”