Next Tory Leader & May's Exit Date (2019)

[LeTiss]

That ain't going to defeat Boris - they need Tory members to vote for them

[superfrank]

That ain't going to defeat Boris - they need Tory members to vote for them

Yep.

54% of Tory members would sacrifice the existence of their own party for Brexit - yougov
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/ar ... y-destroye

That's why they were all pretending to be Brexiteers last night.

[Euler]

Boris will be made PM, head to Brussels, hit a wall, they will call his bluff and he will come back with his tail between his legs. Cue ERG members "Boris was never fully Brexit" and "Sure he wrote two columns about which side to back in the ref" and we revisit all this again in six months time.

The EU project is not a commercial relationship, it's an emotional and conceptual one. Therefore , no matter who gets the job the EU will not shift their position at all. Only at the nth hour will any comprise be made on either side, but I'm pretty sure the EU would prefer a problem than a constitutional change.

[superfrank]

Boris has the support of Steve Baker et al - their plan (I think/hope) will be to tell Brussels to forget the WA and get their heads together to thrash out a "managed no deal" (taking some of the sensible, practical things from the WA) - this will be rubbished of course by hardline Remainers who see everything as impossible, but it's not.

Steve Baker is tipped to become the new Brexit Secretary if Boris wins - he's smart and opposed the WA all 3 times - there's no way he'd being going cap in hand to Brussels to beg for a few concessions, no way.

[Archangel]

I think Brussels now realise that they just cannot trust whoever is sent over from Britain to negotiate because every time they reach a agreement, the British side cant agree amongst themselves.

The problem is there is effectively a constitutional crisis in the UK which needs to be resolved before a meaningful resolution to Brexit can be agreed

[dragontrades]

We would be out by now if May hadn't pissed away her majority

[Archangel]

We would be out by now if May hadn't pissed away her majority

True. Not to mention a government which is reliant on the DUP bible bashers

[greenmark]

It is curious to me why Sinn Fein haven't used their votes in parliament.
(Apart from the obvious idealogical issues).
They've allowed the DUP to paralyse Stormont and Westminster.

We would be out by now if May hadn't pissed away her majority

True. Not to mention a government which is reliant on the DUP bible bashers

[to75ne]

It is curious to me why Sinn Fein haven't used their votes in parliament.
(Apart from the obvious idealogical issues).
They've allowed the DUP to paralyse Stormont and Westminster.

We would be out by now if May hadn't pissed away her majority

True. Not to mention a government which is reliant on the DUP bible bashers

sinn fein will not ever take a oath of loyalty to the queen, hence no oath cant take up seats.

[Dallas]

Glad I dumped my Rory trade last night at near scratch!

Still wondering what went so wrong, into 10s after the vote out to 20s after the debate then 30+ this morning

[LeTiss]

Interesting to note, people were starting to heavily back Boris and lay Jeremy Hunt, just before the result was officially announced. Any Tory MP's use Betfair by any chance?

[ShaunWhite]

Interesting to note, people were starting to heavily back Boris and lay Jeremy Hunt, just before the result was officially announced. Any Tory MP's use Betfair by any chance?

At this stage it's Boris who chooses who goes. In the first vote when it became clear he was miles ahead he engaged the std vote sharing trick last seen with such great effect when Hague was crowned.

Raab looked like a danger so Boris had some of his people vote for Stewart.
Stewart was then most likely to rock the Boris campaign by exposing the uncomfortable truths about renegotiation, so he moved those people to Javid. (a big factor in the Javid/Stewart flip flop).

You could see it played out in the 'debate', 4 guys scared to challenge Boris and one who did. At one point I thought Gove was actually going to suck Boris's Johnson everyone knows they hate each other.

These things tend to play out the same way everytime and as the field gets smaller, rigging by candidates gets harder. That usually signals the start of more influence from the Party Chairman and the real dons like Lord Hunt. With an election looming, if candidates stray far from the party message they might see some of their supporters evaporate when Lord Hunt's henchman Julien Smith, starts giving people Chinese burns in the corridor. When Stewart started talking about 'this isn't the time for tax cuts' that only confirmed that he was toast.

Getting the public involved has lead to some upsets, but when it's just good old boring internal tory proceedures like choosing new leaders, you can't go far wrong if you just expect it to play out like it's done in the past.

[Lutruwita]

I hope Boris wins. The fact the Brits have Jeremy Corbyn waiting in the wings with the very real possibility of becoming PM is a sign that Britain is finished. At least, with Boris as PM, we'd get some laughs before the once mighty nation slips beneath the waves.

The rules surrounding the Tory leadership race are almost as farcical as the UK's first-past-the-post voting system. I had no idea it had changed post-Thatcher. I feel for the old, dour Tory members readying to vote - the excitement must almost be too much to bear. Before it is all over I expect some of the old Tories to be clutching their chests in apparent heart attacks. Never mind dears, it will all be over soon and you can get back to your scrabble.

[ShaunWhite]

Jeremy Corbyn waiting in the wings with the very real possibility of becoming PM

Doubtful. The coup is gathering momentum if you excuse the pun. His days are numbered. Unless something drastic happens that means the fixed term parliament act gets thrown in the bin, or Tories vote no confidence in themselves, there'll be plenty of time for him to be ousted before a GE. I wouldn't be suprised to see him out, he's totally at odds with the membership.

[wearthefoxhat]

Jeremy Corbyn waiting in the wings with the very real possibility of becoming PM

Doubtful. The coup is gathering momentum if you excuse the pun. His days are numbered. Unless something drastic happens that means the fixed term parliament act gets thrown in the bin, or Tories vote no confidence in themselves, there'll be plenty of time for him to be ousted before a GE. I wouldn't be suprised to see him out, he's totally at odds with the membership.

It's also interesting David Miliband is having more air time recently...