Next Tory Leader & May's Exit Date (2019)

Betfair trading & Punting on politics. Be aware there is a lot of off topic discussion in this group centred on Political views.
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greenmark
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Anyone assuming Johnson's 'no deal' stance is a winner should watch Liam Fox on Andrew Marr. Fox said the EU have said twice they will impose WTO tariffs in the event of 'no deal', regardless of the UK's unilateral low-tariff regime. That is catastrophic for exporters (44% of UK exports go to EU).
Liam Fox is a Brexiteer negotiating trade agreements, so he should know.
Johnson is touting no deal as his main weapon.
It's suicidal for our economy. It would take years to recover from a self-inflicted wound..
Johnson is a selfish, arrogant liar and doesn't care at all about the havoc he causes.
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firlandsfarm
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greenmark wrote:
Mon Jun 24, 2019 6:06 pm
Anyone assuming Johnson's 'no deal' stance is a winner should watch Liam Fox on Andrew Marr. Fox said the EU have said twice they will impose WTO tariffs in the event of 'no deal', regardless of the UK's unilateral low-tariff regime. That is catastrophic for exporters (44% of UK exports go to EU).
Liam Fox is a Brexiteer negotiating trade agreements, so he should know.
Johnson is touting no deal as his main weapon.
It's suicidal for our economy. It would take years to recover from a self-inflicted wound..
Johnson is a selfish, arrogant liar and doesn't care at all about the havoc he causes.
Of course there are alternative arguments for a No-deal/WTO Brexit and there is only one way to find out for certain. Until then both sides are pure conjecture and it could be said that the protagonists of Project Fear are 'selfish, arrogant liars who don't care at all about the havoc they cause' with their PF stories which have been seen post referendum to be misleading!
greenmark
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firlandsfarm wrote:
Mon Jun 24, 2019 6:28 pm
greenmark wrote:
Mon Jun 24, 2019 6:06 pm
Anyone assuming Johnson's 'no deal' stance is a winner should watch Liam Fox on Andrew Marr. Fox said the EU have said twice they will impose WTO tariffs in the event of 'no deal', regardless of the UK's unilateral low-tariff regime. That is catastrophic for exporters (44% of UK exports go to EU).
Liam Fox is a Brexiteer negotiating trade agreements, so he should know.
Johnson is touting no deal as his main weapon.
It's suicidal for our economy. It would take years to recover from a self-inflicted wound..
Johnson is a selfish, arrogant liar and doesn't care at all about the havoc he causes.
With respect. Project Fear is a post-brexit scenario - brexit has yet to happen. Business and the economy is in suspended animation at present. Once brexit is reolved, either of 3 ways, we'll see how accurate project fear is. But at this stage there is no doubt. No deal would be a catastrophe for exporters. Forget Baker's proposal, it's full of 'co-operation' by the EU. Thats not going to happen. We rely on the EU for 44% of our exports. They rely on us for 6% of their exports.
Who has more to lose?
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superfrank
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greenmark wrote:
Mon Jun 24, 2019 9:44 pm
We rely on the EU for 44% of our exports. They rely on us for 6% of their exports.
Very misleading figures.

The UK runs a massive goods trade deficit with the EU. If there were tariffs in operation then the UK would raise far more than EU tariffs would cost us.
The EU, taken as a whole is the UK’s largest trading partner. In 2017, UK exports to the EU were £274 billion (44% of all UK exports). UK imports from the EU were £341 billion (53% of all UK imports).
https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk ... y/CBP-7851

From Priti Patel/IDS in the Telegraph:
The new Government should instead rightly accelerate the planning for us to leave on October 31st and with vigor and determination. And at the same time we must make an offer to the EU that we should resurrect the Tusk offer of a comprehensive Free Trade deal.
We accept that this cannot be completed before the 31st 0ctober so we would also agree with the EU to jointly invoke GATT, Article 24 to come into force on 31st October 2019. This will enable us to continue with zero tariffs and regulatory standstill for the negotiation.
Alongside, we can also agree to set up an independent body to adjudicate over disputes concerning regulation changes during the period we are negotiating the Free Trade deal.
Sounds like a sensible approach to me.
greenmark
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"We accept that this cannot be completed before the 31st 0ctober so we would also agree with the EU to jointly invoke GATT, Article 24 to come into force on 31st October 2019. "
And the EU would agree where we haven't reached agreement in 3 years.

I'm not saying I'm right, I'm just very worried that no deal will destroy 25% of our EU exporters.
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Naffman
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Nice to have Rory on our forum ;)
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firlandsfarm
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greenmark wrote:
Mon Jun 24, 2019 9:44 pm
With respect. Project Fear is a post-brexit scenario … Once brexit is reolved, either of 3 ways, we'll see how accurate project fear is.
With respect, Osborne said we would need an emergency budget the day immediately following a Leave vote … still waiting, can you send me a copy if you have it! And as I said "there are alternative arguments for a No-deal/WTO Brexit" but I'm pleased you agree with me "there is only one way to find out for certain".
greenmark wrote:
Mon Jun 24, 2019 9:44 pm
But at this stage there is no doubt. No deal would be a catastrophe for exporters.
That's interesting. BTW, could you share with me who will win the 3:15 at Brighton today as I can see you are able to tell the future with "no doubt".
greenmark wrote:
Mon Jun 24, 2019 9:44 pm
Business and the economy is in suspended animation at present.
Well we can agree on that one but I doubt on the reason. It's the Remoaners who are causing this situation by still crying over losing and blocking attempts to do as the people voted and the government of the day promised. And now they want to extend the period of uncertainty by trying to force through Ref2. Let's try that more directly … we want to reduce the uncertainty by extending the period of uncertainty. Go figure!
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firlandsfarm
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greenmark wrote:
Mon Jun 24, 2019 10:15 pm
And the EU would agree where we haven't reached agreement in 3 years.
Forget the 3 years, that is a misleading figure. No negotiation lasts 3 years. The parties jostle for position for 2 years 9 months (or whatever). They only enter into true negotiations in the final period. If the Article 50 period had been for 3 months or 5 years the answer would have been roughly the same. It's not just meetings that last for the period of time allocated to them! The biggest problem in the negotiations was Parliament's insistence on taking no deal off the table, that left us without a hand to play. But don't take my word for it, ask any successful businessman if he would stay in a negotiation where he could not walk away if dissatisfied.
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wearthefoxhat
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By the looks of it, it's all okay now....

piccy.GIF
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firlandsfarm
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:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: but who is that in the undergrowth
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wearthefoxhat
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firlandsfarm wrote:
Tue Jun 25, 2019 1:39 pm
:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: but who is that in the undergrowth
Could be Robert Winston the IVF medical guy, (also a Labour politician) or...

Groucho Marx... (who once famously said.."man does not control his own fate, the women in his life do that for him") ;)
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Archangel
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Location: Polo Lounge, Beverly Hills Hotel

Boris Johnson paints buses for relaxation

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gLcCZjDoWTQ

If you want to put your head in your hands take a ticket and get in line.
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superfrank
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Liam Halligan:
The media establishment is in full-scale attack mode. Boris Johnson faces a no-holds-barred onslaught – as blatantly pro-Remain broadcasters throw whatever mud they can to stop him reaching No 10. Some have genuine reservations about Johnson’s suitability for high office. But much of this relentless negativity is driven by envy, class warfare and, above all, Brexit.

The bien pensants in both politics and the media know Johnson is determined to leave the European Union, if necessary with no deal, on October 31. And the Boris-bashers’ biggest fear is that his enthusiasm and belief that we can finally do so, after three years of foot-dragging, proves infectious ­– generating the final wave of public support that gets a meaningful Brexit over the line.

Johnson’s rallying cry that Britain can thrive by staying close to Europe, but outside an increasingly over-bearing EU, is not only economically true, it also taps into a deep well of emotion – not only among the Leave-voting majority, but also the millions who backed Remain and know that it’s vital for the integrity of British democracy that this debilitating log-jam is broken.

The Government must put our destiny into our own hands by preparing, practically and psychologically, to leave the EU without a deal. If not, we are powerless, requiring Brussels’ permission to implement the biggest act of democracy in our history. To avoid that fate, we need a prime minister who can show the public and Brussels that no deal, while not the best outcome, is entirely acceptable. Someone with some “positive energy”, as Johnson put it.

The UK already conducts most of its trade outside the EU largely under WTO rules. Such trade is growing and generates a surplus. Our EU trade, despite the single market, is falling and generates a deficit. Under WTO rules, the UK and EU would charge relatively low reciprocal tariffs – generating billions for Britain given our EU trade deficit. Such funds can support exporters facing higher EU tariffs, putting us in a powerful position to strike the long-term free trade deal both sides want.
I don't think the media have got much left and it'll get tiring and more ineffective over time, just like Project Fear did.

Boris will win very comfortably imho.
greenmark
Posts: 4948
Joined: Mon Jan 29, 2018 2:15 pm

superfrank wrote:
Wed Jun 26, 2019 1:28 pm
Liam Halligan:
The media establishment is in full-scale attack mode. Boris Johnson faces a no-holds-barred onslaught – as blatantly pro-Remain broadcasters throw whatever mud they can to stop him reaching No 10. Some have genuine reservations about Johnson’s suitability for high office. But much of this relentless negativity is driven by envy, class warfare and, above all, Brexit.

The bien pensants in both politics and the media know Johnson is determined to leave the European Union, if necessary with no deal, on October 31. And the Boris-bashers’ biggest fear is that his enthusiasm and belief that we can finally do so, after three years of foot-dragging, proves infectious ­– generating the final wave of public support that gets a meaningful Brexit over the line.

Johnson’s rallying cry that Britain can thrive by staying close to Europe, but outside an increasingly over-bearing EU, is not only economically true, it also taps into a deep well of emotion – not only among the Leave-voting majority, but also the millions who backed Remain and know that it’s vital for the integrity of British democracy that this debilitating log-jam is broken.

The Government must put our destiny into our own hands by preparing, practically and psychologically, to leave the EU without a deal. If not, we are powerless, requiring Brussels’ permission to implement the biggest act of democracy in our history. To avoid that fate, we need a prime minister who can show the public and Brussels that no deal, while not the best outcome, is entirely acceptable. Someone with some “positive energy”, as Johnson put it.

The UK already conducts most of its trade outside the EU largely under WTO rules. Such trade is growing and generates a surplus. Our EU trade, despite the single market, is falling and generates a deficit. Under WTO rules, the UK and EU would charge relatively low reciprocal tariffs – generating billions for Britain given our EU trade deficit. Such funds can support exporters facing higher EU tariffs, putting us in a powerful position to strike the long-term free trade deal both sides want.
I don't think the media have got much left and it'll get tiring and more ineffective over time, just like Project Fear did.

Boris will win very comfortably imho.
Thst'd be the Telegraph columnist Liam Halligan. Same paper as Johnson, funny that.
In the interests of balance there's this from Polly Toynbee. I realise she is a remainer as is the Guadrian, broadly speaking.
But its eye-catching for it's almost rabid dislike for Johnson.
He is marmite, he revels in it. As such I can't see him doing anything as PM.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... 1560356349
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